Abstract Nitrate is an essential nutrient for phytoplankton growth and is a primary component of ocean carbon cycling. In this study, we developed a neural network constrained by the high spatial and temporal coverage of BGC‐Argo floats to predict nitrate in a consistent way throughout space and time in the Southern Ocean, a key area for ocean carbon uptake and controlling global ocean nutrient distributions. After correcting for physical and sampling biases using the Biogeochemical Southern Ocean State Estimate model, we show that annual net community production (ANCP), originally calculated from seasonal nitrate drawdown, reveals the greatest production around the 45–55°S meridional band, and an average basin‐wide ANCP of 3.91 ± 0.13 PgC y−1with a significant increase of 0.67% y−1from 2004 to 2022. We also highlight that using the common nitrate seasonal drawdown method to derive ANCP might underestimate the true carbon export at depth by about one third. Our findings align with previous studies, which indicate an increase in surface satellite chlorophyll‐aand model export fluxes. Our results demonstrate the potential of leveraging machine learning constrained by BGC‐Argo observations to study long‐term changes of biogeochemical processes in the ocean.
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Ocean mover’s distance: using optimal transport for analysing oceanographic data
Remote sensing observations from satellites and global biogeochemical models have combined to revolutionize the study of ocean biogeochemical cycling, but comparing the two data streams to each other and across time remains challenging due to the strong spatial-temporal structuring of the ocean. Here, we show that the Wasserstein distance provides a powerful metric for harnessing these structured datasets for better marine ecosystem and climate predictions. The Wasserstein distance complements commonly used point-wise difference methods such as the root-mean-squared error, by quantifying differences in terms of spatial displacement in addition to magnitude. As a test case, we consider chlorophyll (a key indicator of phytoplankton biomass) in the northeast Pacific Ocean, obtained from model simulations, in situ measurements, and satellite observations. We focus on two main applications: (i) comparing model predictions with satellite observations, and (ii) temporal evolution of chlorophyll both seasonally and over longer time frames. The Wasserstein distance successfully isolates temporal and depth variability and quantifies shifts in biogeochemical province boundaries. It also exposes relevant temporal trends in satellite chlorophyll consistent with climate change predictions. Our study shows that optimal transport vectors underlying the Wasserstein distance provide a novel visualization tool for testing models and better understanding temporal dynamics in the ocean.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1748166
- PAR ID:
- 10379164
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
- Volume:
- 478
- Issue:
- 2262
- ISSN:
- 1364-5021
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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