Problem definition: We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision making. Methodology/results: We propose a general methodology, market segmentation trees (MSTs), for learning market segmentations explicitly driven by identifying differences in user response patterns. To demonstrate the versatility of our methodology, we design two new specialized MST algorithms: (i) choice model trees (CMTs), which can be used to predict a user’s choice amongst multiple options, and (ii) isotonic regression trees (IRTs), which can be used to solve the bid landscape forecasting problem. We provide a theoretical analysis of the asymptotic running times of our algorithmic methods, which validates their computational tractability on large data sets. We also provide a customizable, open-source code base for training MSTs in Python that uses several strategies for scalability, including parallel processing and warm starts. Finally, we assess the practical performance of MSTs on several synthetic and real-world data sets, showing that our method reliably finds market segmentations that accurately model response behavior. Managerial implications: The standard approach to conduct market segmentation for personalized decision making is to first perform market segmentation by clustering users according to similarities in their contextual features and then fit a “response model” to each segment to model how users respond to decisions. However, this approach may not be ideal if the contextual features prominent in distinguishing clusters are not key drivers of response behavior. Our approach addresses this issue by integrating market segmentation and response modeling, which consistently leads to improvements in response prediction accuracy, thereby aiding personalization. We find that such an integrated approach can be computationally tractable and effective even on large-scale data sets. Moreover, MSTs are interpretable because the market segments can easily be described by a decision tree and often require only a fraction of the number of market segments generated by traditional approaches. Disclaimer: This work was done prior to Ryan McNellis joining Amazon. Funding: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation [Grants CMMI-1763000 and CMMI-1944428]. Supplemental Material: The online appendices are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1195 .
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Harnessing interpretable machine learning for holistic inverse design of origami
This work harnesses interpretable machine learning methods to address the challenging inverse design problem of origami-inspired systems. We established a work flow based on decision tree-random forest method to fit origami databases, containing both design features and functional performance, and to generate human-understandable decision rules for the inverse design of functional origami. First, the tree method is unique because it can handle complex interactions between categorical features and continuous features, allowing it to compare different origami patterns for a design. Second, this interpretable method can tackle multi-objective problems for designing functional origami with multiple and multi-physical performance targets. Finally, the method can extend existing shape-fitting algorithms for origami to consider non-geometrical performance. The proposed framework enables holistic inverse design of origami, considering both shape and function, to build novel reconfigurable structures for various applications such as metamaterials, deployable structures, soft robots, biomedical devices, and many more.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 2054148
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10379887
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Reports
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2045-2322
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Background Advanced machine learning models have received wide attention in assisting medical decision making due to the greater accuracy they can achieve. However, their limited interpretability imposes barriers for practitioners to adopt them. Recent advancements in interpretable machine learning tools allow us to look inside the black box of advanced prediction methods to extract interpretable models while maintaining similar prediction accuracy, but few studies have investigated the specific hospital readmission prediction problem with this spirit.
Methods Our goal is to develop a machine-learning (ML) algorithm that can predict 30- and 90- day hospital readmissions as accurately as black box algorithms while providing medically interpretable insights into readmission risk factors. Leveraging a state-of-art interpretable ML model, we use a two-step Extracted Regression Tree approach to achieve this goal. In the first step, we train a black box prediction algorithm. In the second step, we extract a regression tree from the output of the black box algorithm that allows direct interpretation of medically relevant risk factors. We use data from a large teaching hospital in Asia to learn the ML model and verify our two-step approach.
Results The two-step method can obtain similar prediction performance as the best black box model, such as Neural Networks, measured by three metrics: accuracy, the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and the Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), while maintaining interpretability. Further, to examine whether the prediction results match the known medical insights (i.e., the model is truly interpretable and produces reasonable results), we show that key readmission risk factors extracted by the two-step approach are consistent with those found in the medical literature.
Conclusions The proposed two-step approach yields meaningful prediction results that are both accurate and interpretable. This study suggests a viable means to improve the trust of machine learning based models in clinical practice for predicting readmissions through the two-step approach.
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Self-folding origami, structures that are engineered flat to fold into targeted, three-dimensional shapes, have many potential engineering applications. Though significant effort in recent years has been devoted to designing fold patterns that can achieve a variety of target shapes, recent work has also made clear that many origami structures exhibit multiple folding pathways, with a proliferation of geometric folding pathways as the origami structure becomes complex. The competition between these pathways can lead to structures that are programmed for one shape, yet fold incorrectly. To disentangle the features that lead to misfolding, we introduce a model of self-folding origami that accounts for the finite stretching rigidity of the origami faces and allows the computation of energy landscapes that lead to misfolding. We find that, in addition to the geometrical features of the origami, the finite elasticity of the nearly-flat origami configurations regulates the proliferation of potential misfolded states through a series of saddle-node bifurcations. We apply our model to one of the most common origami motifs, the symmetric “bird's foot,” a single vertex with four folds. We show that though even a small error in programmed fold angles induces metastability in rigid origami, elasticity allows one to tune resilience to misfolding. In a more complex design, the “Randlett flapping bird,” which has thousands of potential competing states, we further show that the number of actual observed minima is strongly determined by the structure's elasticity. In general, we show that elastic origami with both stiffer folds and less bendable faces self-folds better.more » « less
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Sparse decision trees are one of the most common forms of interpretable models. While recent advances have produced algorithms that fully optimize sparse decision trees for prediction, that work does not address policy design, because the algorithms cannot handle weighted data samples. Specifically, they rely on the discreteness of the loss function, which means that real-valued weights cannot be directly used. For example, none of the existing techniques produce policies that incorporate inverse propensity weighting on individual data points. We present three algorithms for efficient sparse weighted decision tree optimization. The first approach directly optimizes the weighted loss function; however, it tends to be computationally inefficient for large datasets. Our second approach, which scales more efficiently, transforms weights to integer values and uses data duplication to transform the weighted decision tree optimization problem into an unweighted (but larger) counterpart. Our third algorithm, which scales to much larger datasets, uses a randomized procedure that samples each data point with a probability proportional to its weight. We present theoretical bounds on the error of the two fast methods and show experimentally that these methods can be two orders of magnitude faster than the direct optimization of the weighted loss, without losing significant accuracy.more » « less
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Inverse design is a powerful tool in wave physics for compact, high-performance devices. To date, applications in photonics have mostly been limited to linear systems and it has rarely been investigated or demonstrated in the nonlinear regime. In addition, the “black box” nature of inverse design techniques has hindered the understanding of optimized inverse-designed structures. We propose an inverse design method with interpretable results to enhance the efficiency of on-chip photon generation rate through nonlinear processes by controlling the effective phase-matching conditions. We fabricate and characterize a compact, inverse-designed device using a silicon-on-insulator platform that allows a spontaneous four-wave mixing process to generate photon pairs at a rate of 1.1 MHz with a coincidence to accidental ratio of 162. Our design method accounts for fabrication constraints and can be used for scalable quantum light sources in large-scale communication and computing applications.
