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For stationary time series with regularly varying marginal distributions, an important problem is to estimate the associated tail index which characterizes the power‐law behavior of the tail distribution. For this, various results have been developed for independent data and certain types of dependent data. In this article, we consider the problem of tail index estimation under a recently proposed notion of serial tail dependence called the tail adversarial stability. Using the technique of adversarial innovation coupling and a martingale approximation scheme, we establish the consistency and central limit theorem of the tail index estimator for a general class of tail dependent time series. Based on the asymptotic normal distribution from the obtained central limit theorem, we further consider an application to cluster a large number of regularly varying time series based on their tail indices by using a robust mixture algorithm. The results are illustrated using numerical examples including Monte Carlo simulations and a real data analysis.
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Tempered functional time series
We propose a broad class of models for time series of curves (functions) that can be used to quantify near long‐range dependence or near unit root behavior. We establish fundamental properties of these models and rates of consistency for the sample mean function and the sample covariance operator. The latter plays a role analogous to sample cross‐covariances for multivariate time series, but is far more important in the functional setting because its eigenfunctions are used in principal component analysis, which is a major tool in functional data analysis. It is used for dimension reduction of feature extraction. We also establish a central limit theorem for functions following our model. Both the consistency rates and the normalizations in the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) are nonstandard. They reflect the local unit root behavior and the long memory structure at moderate lags.
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- PAR ID:
- 10380271
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Time Series Analysis
- Volume:
- 44
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0143-9782
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 280-293
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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