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1. Regimes of Convective Self-Aggregation in Convection-Permitting Beta-Plane Simulations

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0222.1  

   Carstens, Jacob D. ; Wing, Allison A. ( September 2023 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   The spontaneous self-aggregation (SA) of convection in idealized model experiments highlights the importance of interactions between tropical convection and the surrounding environment. The authors have shown that SA fundamentally changes with the background rotation in previousf-plane simulations, in terms of both the resulting forms of organized convection and the relative roles of the physical feedbacks driving them. This study considers the dependence of SA on rotation in one large domain on theβplane, introducing an additional layer of complexity. Simulations are performed with uniform thermal forcing and explicit convection. Focuses include statistical and structural analysis of the convective modes, process-oriented diagnostics of how they develop, and resulting mean states. Two regimes of SA emerge within the first 15 days, separated by a critical zone wherefis analogous to 10°–15° latitude. Organized convection at near-equatorial values offprimarily consists of convectively coupled Kelvin waves. Wind speed–surface enthalpy flux feedbacks are the dominant process driving moisture variability early on, then clear-sky shortwave radiative feedbacks are strongest in wave maintenance. In contrast, at higherf, numerous tropical cyclones develop and coexist, dominated by surface flux and longwave processes. Tropical cyclogenesis is most pronounced at intermediatef(analogous to 25°–40°), but are longer-lived at higherf. The resulting modes of SA at lowfdiffer between theseβ-plane simulations (convectively coupled waves) and priorf-plane simulations (weak tropical cyclones or nonrotating clusters). Otherwise, these results provide further evidence for the changing roles of radiative, surface flux, and advective processes in influencing SA asfchanges, as found in our previous study.

   In model simulations, convection often self-organizes due to interactions with its surrounding environment. These interactions are relevant in the real-world organization of rainfall and clouds, and may thus be useful to understand for improved prediction of tropical weather and climate. Previous work using a set of simple model experiments with constant Coriolis force showed that at different latitudes, different processes dominate, and different types of organized convection result. This study verifies that finding using a more complex and realistic model, where the Coriolis force varies within the domain to resemble different latitudes. Specifically, the convection here self-organizes into atmospheric waves (periodic disturbances) at low latitudes, and tropical cyclones at high latitudes.

    

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2. The Mixed Layer Salinity Budget in the Central Equatorial Indian Ocean

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017280  

   Chi, Nan‐Hsun ; Lien, Ren‐Chieh ; D'Asaro, Eric A. ( June 2021 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans)

   The oceanic surface mixed layer salinity (MLS) budget of the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean during boreal fall and winter is studied using in situ and remote sensing measurements. Budgets on roughly 100 km scale were constructed using data from twoDYNAmics of theMadden–JulianOscillation and twoResearch MooredArray for African‐Asian‐AustralianMonsoonAnalysis and Prediction moorings near 79°E during September 2011 to January 2012. The horizontal advective salinity flux plays a significant role in the seasonal variation of equatorial MLS. In boreal fall, the equatorial and 1.5°S MLS increases due to horizontal advection and turbulent mixing, despite the freshening surface flux associated with MJOs. In boreal winter, with larger sub‐monthly variation and uncertainties, the decreasing of equatorial MLS is accounted by freshening zonal advection and surface flux, abated by salty meridional advection; the 1.5°S MLS is explained by the combination of freshening meridional advection and surface flux, and salty zonal advection. Budgets between 2011 and 2015 are investigated using data products from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, Aquarius, Ocean Surface Current Analyses Real‐time, Objectively Analyzed air‐sea Fluxes, and Argo mixed layers over a wider region. The eastward development of the equatorial salinity tongue in the central to eastern Indian Ocean in boreal fall and the westward retreat in boreal winter are largely determined by the equatorial zonal current. The meridional migration of ITCZ rainfall plays a secondary role. In order to improve model prediction skills of MLS changes in the equatorial Indian Ocean, both zonal and meridional salinity advective fluxes, at a spatial scale of 1° longitude and latitude and a timescale less than days, need to be properly simulated.

    

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3. Climatological Madden-Julian Oscillation during boreal spring leads to abrupt Australian monsoon retreat and Asian monsoon onsets

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00566-9  

   Wang, Bin ; Dai, Lun ; Cheng, Tat Fan ; Lee, Sun-Seon ; Wang, Tianyi ; Jin, Chunhan ( February 2024 , npj Climate and Atmospheric Science)

   Abrupt monsoon onsets/retreats are indispensable targets for climate prediction and future projection, but the origins of their abruptness remain elusive. This study establishes the existence of three climatological Madden-Julian Oscillation (CMJO) episodes contributing to the rapid Australian summer monsoon retreat in mid-March, the South China Sea (or East Asian) summer monsoon onset in mid-May, and the Indian summer monsoon onset in early June. The CMJO displays a dynamically coherent convection-circulation structure resembling its transitionary counterpart, demonstrating its robustness as a convectively coupled circulation system and the tendency of the transient MJOs’ phase-lock to the annual cycle. The CMJO is inactive during the boreal winter due to destructive year-to-year modulations of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We hypothesize that the interaction between atmospheric internal variability (MJO) and the insolation-forced slow annual cycle generates the sudden monsoon withdrawal/onset during the boreal spring. Understanding the factors determining the timing and location of the MJO’s phase-locking and its variability is vital for monsoon forecasting and climate projection.

    

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4. Kelvin and Rossby Wave Contributions to the Mechanisms of the Madden–Julian Oscillation

   https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences12090314  

   Haertel, Patrick ( September 2022 , Geosciences)

   The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a large-scale tropical weather system that generates heavy rainfall over the equatorial Indian and western Pacific Oceans on a 40–50 day cycle. Its circulation propagates eastward around the entire world and impacts tropical cyclone genesis, monsoon onset, and mid-latitude flooding. This study examines the mechanism of the MJO in the Lagrangian atmospheric model (LAM), which has been shown to simulate the MJO accurately, and which predicts that MJO circulations will intensify as oceans warm. The LAM MJO’s first baroclinic circulation is projected onto a Kelvin wave leaving a residual that closely resembles a Rossby wave. The contribution of each wave type to moisture and moist enthalpy budgets is assessed. While the vertical advection of moisture by the Kelvin wave accounts for most of the MJO’s precipitation, this wave also exports a large amount of dry static energy, so that in total, it reduces the column integrated moist enthalpy during periods of heavy precipitation. In contrast, the Rossby wave’s horizontal circulation builds up moisture prior to the most intense convection, and its surface wind perturbations enhance evaporation near the center of MJO convection. Surface fluxes associated with the Kelvin wave help to maintain its circulation outside of the MJO’s convectively active region. 

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5. The Role of Subtropical Rossby Waves in Amplifying the Divergent Circulation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0259.1  

   Barpanda, Pragallva ; Tulich, Stefan N. ; Dias, Juliana ; Kiladis, George N. ( October 2023 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   The composite structure of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has long been known to feature pronounced Rossby gyres in the subtropical upper troposphere, whose existence can be interpreted as the forced response to convective heating anomalies in the presence of a subtropical westerly jet. The question of interest here is whether these forced gyre circulations have any subsequent effects on divergence patterns in the tropics and the Kelvin-mode component of the MJO. A nonlinear spherical shallow water model is used to investigate how the introduction of different background jet profiles affects the model’s steady-state response to an imposed MJO-like stationary thermal forcing. Results show that a stronger jet leads to a stronger Kelvin-mode response in the tropics up to a critical jet speed, along with stronger divergence anomalies in the vicinity of the forcing. To understand this behavior, additional calculations are performed in which a localized vorticity forcing is imposed in the extratropics, without any thermal forcing in the tropics. The response is once again seen to include pronounced equatorial Kelvin waves, provided the jet is of sufficient amplitude. A detailed analysis of the vorticity budget reveals that the zonal-mean zonal wind shear plays a key role in amplifying the Kelvin-mode divergent winds near the equator, with the effects of nonlinearities being of negligible importance. These results help to explain why the MJO tends to be strongest during boreal winter when the Indo-Pacific jet is typically at its strongest.

   The MJO is a planetary-scale convectively coupled equatorial disturbance that serves as a primary source of atmospheric predictability on intraseasonal time scales (30–90 days). Due to its dominance and spontaneous recurrence, the MJO has a significant global impact, influencing hurricanes in the tropics, storm tracks, and atmosphere blocking events in the midlatitudes, and even weather systems near the poles. Despite steady improvements in subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecast models, the MJO prediction skill has still not reached its maximum potential. The root of this challenge is partly due to our lack of understanding of how the MJO interacts with the background mean flow. In this work, we use a simple one-layer atmospheric model with idealized heating and vorticity sources to understand the impact of the subtropical jet on the MJO amplitude and its horizontal structure.

    

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