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Over the last decade, autocalibration routines have become commonplace in watershed modeling. This approach is most often used to simulate a streamflow at a basin’s outlet. In alpine settings, spring/early summer snowmelt is by far the dominant signal in this system. Therefore, there is great potential for a modeled watershed to underperform during other times of the year. This tendency has been noted in many prior studies. In this work, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was auto-calibrated with the SUFI-2 routine. A mountainous watershed from Idaho was examined (Upper North Fork). In this study, this basin was calibrated using three estimates of evapotranspiration (ET): Moderate Resolution Imagining Spectrometer (MODIS), Simplified Surface Energy Balance, and Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Model. The MODIS product in particular, had the greatest utility in helping to constrain SWAT parameters that have a high sensitivity to ET. Streamflow simulations that utilize these ET parameter values have improved recessional and summertime streamflow performances during calibration (2007 to 2011) and validation (2012 to 2014) periods. Streamflow performance was monitored with standard objective metrics (Bias and Nash Sutcliffe coefficients) that quantified overall, recessional, and summertime peak flows. This approach yielded dramatic enhancements for all three observations. These results demonstrate the utility of this approach for improving watershed modeling fidelity outside the main snowmelt season.
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Guidance on evaluating parametric model uncertainty at decision-relevant scales
Abstract. Spatially distributed hydrological models are commonly employed to optimize the locations of engineering control measures across a watershed. Yet, parameter screening exercises that aim to reduce the dimensionality of the calibration search space are typically completed only for gauged locations, like the watershed outlet, and use screening metrics that are relevant to calibration instead of explicitly describing the engineering decision objectives. Identifying parameters that describe physical processes in ungauged locations that affect decision objectives should lead to a better understanding of control measure effectiveness. This paper provides guidance on evaluating model parameter uncertainty at the spatial scales and flow magnitudes of interest for such decision-making problems. We use global sensitivity analysis to screen parameters for model calibration, and to subsequently evaluate the appropriateness of using multipliers to adjust the values of spatially distributed parameters to further reduce dimensionality. We evaluate six sensitivity metrics, four of which align with decision objectives and two of which consider model residual error that would be considered in spatial optimizations of engineering designs. We compare the resulting parameter selection for the basin outlet and each hillslope. We also compare basin outlet results for four calibration-relevant metrics. These methods were applied to a RHESSys ecohydrological model of an exurban forested watershed near Baltimore, MD, USA. Results show that (1) the set of parameters selected by calibration-relevant metrics does not include parameters that control decision-relevant high and low streamflows, (2) evaluating sensitivity metrics at the basin outlet misses many parameters that control streamflows in hillslopes, and (3) for some multipliers, calibrating all parameters in the set being adjusted may be preferable to using the multiplier if parameter sensitivities are significantly different, while for others, calibrating a subset of the parameters may be preferable if they are not all influential. Thus, we recommend that parameter screening exercises use decision-relevant metrics that are evaluated at the spatial scales appropriate to decision making. While including more parameters in calibration will exacerbate equifinality, the resulting parametric uncertainty should be important to consider in discovering control measures that are robust to it.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1855277
- PAR ID:
- 10382907
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
- Volume:
- 26
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 1607-7938
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 2519 to 2539
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2519-2022
