India’s coal-heavy electricity system is the world’s third largest and a major emitter of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, it remains a focus of decarbonization and air pollution control policy. Considerable heterogeneity exists between states in India in terms of electricity demand, generation fuel mix, and emissions. However, no analysis has disentangled the expected, state-level spatial differences and interactions in air pollution mortality under current and future power sector policies in India. We use a reduced-complexity air quality model to evaluate annual PM2.5mortalities associated with electricity production and consumption in each state in India. Furthermore, we test emissions control, carbon tax, and market integration policies to understand how changes in power sector operations affect ambient PM2.5concentrations and associated mortality. We find poorer, coal-dependent states in eastern India disproportionately face the burden of PM2.5mortality from electricity in India by importing deaths. Wealthier, high renewable energy states in western and southern India meanwhile face a lower burden by exporting deaths. This suggests that as these states have adopted more renewable generation, they have shifted their coal generation and associated PM2.5mortality to eastern areas. We also find widespread sulfur emissions control decreases mortality by about 50%. Likewise, increasing carbon taxesmore »
Energy transitions and decarbonization require rapid changes to a nation’s electricity generation mix. There are many feasible decarbonization pathways for the electricity sector, yet there is vast uncertainty about how these pathways will advance or derail the nation’s energy equality goals. We present a framework for investigating how decarbonization pathways, driven by a least-cost paradigm, will impact air pollution inequality across vulnerable groups (e.g., low-income, minorities) in the US. We find that if no decarbonization policies are implemented, Black and high-poverty communities may be burdened with 0.19–0.22 μg/m3higher PM2.5concentrations than the national average during the energy transition. National mandates requiring more than 80% deployment of renewable or low-carbon technologies achieve equality of air pollution concentrations across all demographic groups. Thus, if least-cost optimization capacity expansion models remain the dominant decision-making paradigm, strict low-carbon or renewable energy technology mandates will have the greatest likelihood of achieving national distributional energy equality. Decarbonization is essential to achieving climate goals, but myopic decarbonization policies that ignore co-pollutants may leave Black and high-poverty communities up to 26–34% higher PM2.5exposure than national averages over the energy transition.
- Publication Date:
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10384596
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 13
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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