More Like this

1. Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production: Drought Impacts on Agriculture

   https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073606  

   Madadgar, Shahrbanou; AghaKouchak, Amir; Farahmand, Alireza; Davis, Steven J. (August 2017, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Increases in the severity and frequency of drought in a warming climate may negatively impact agricultural production and food security. Unlike previous studies that have estimated agricultural impacts of climate condition using single-crop yield distributions, we develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses projected climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation amount or soil moisture) throughout a growing season to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. We demonstrate the model by an analysis of the historical period 1980–2012, including the Millennium Drought in Australia (2001–2009). We find that precipitation and soil moisture deficit in dry growing seasons reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops in Australia (wheat, broad beans, canola, lupine, and barley) by 25–45% relative to the wet growing seasons. Our model can thus produce region- and crop-specific agricultural sensitivities to climate conditions and variability. Probabilistic estimates of yield may help decision-makers in government and business to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of agriculture to climate variations. We develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses precipitation to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. The proposed model shows how the probability distribution of crop yield changes in response to droughts. During Australia's Millennium Drought precipitation and soil moisture deficit reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops. 

   more » « less
2. Welfare Impacts of Digital Credit:Welfare Impacts of Digital Credit: A Randomized Evaluation in Nigeria

   https://doi.org/10.1086/735169  

   Bjorkegren, Daniel; Blumenstock, Joshua; Folajimi-Senjobi, Omowunmi; Mauro, Jacqueline; R_Nair, Suraj (February 2025, Economic Development and Cultural Change)
3. Environmental impacts of biodegradable microplastics

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s44286-024-00127-0  

   Piao, Zhengyin; Agyei_Boakye, Amma_Asantewaa; Yao, Yuan (September 2024, Nature Chemical Engineering)

   Abstract Biodegradable plastics, perceived as ‘environmentally friendly’ materials, may end up in natural environments. This impact is often overlooked in the literature due to a lack of assessment methods. This study develops an integrated life cycle impact assessment methodology to assess the climate-change and aquatic-ecotoxicity impacts of biodegradable microplastics in freshwater ecosystems. Our results reveal that highly biodegradable microplastics have lower aquatic ecotoxicity but higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The extent of burden shifting depends on microplastic size and density. Plastic biodegradation in natural environments can result in higher GHG emissions than biodegradation in engineered end of life (for example, anaerobic digestion), contributing substantially to the life cycle GHG emissions of biodegradable plastics (excluding the use phase). A sensitivity analysis identified critical biodegradation rates for different plastic sizes that result in maximum GHG emissions. This work advances understanding of the environmental impacts of biodegradable plastics, providing an approach for the assessment and design of future plastics. 

   more » « less
4. Enabling Impacts: Building a Broader Impacts Community of Practice at a Land-Grant University

   https://doi.org/10.54656/jces.v17i2.604  

   McNall, Miles; Aerni-Flessner, Lauren; Blair, Denice; Steenrod, Sara; Kankula, Angie (November 2024, Journal of Community Engagement and Scholarship)

   The Broader Impacts (BI) activities required of researchers funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) often involve public engagement, including K-12 outreach, informal science education, public exhibits and performances, advocacy and policy change, and business and entrepreneurship. The ARIS Broader Impacts Toolkit (Advancing Research Impacts in Society, 2024) is an online resource designed to help researchers develop BI plans for their NSF proposals. Several elements of the Toolkit address critical aspects of public engagement, making the Toolkit a valuable resource for researchers new to BI or public engagement, especially when integrated into wider BI communities of practice. We discuss how the national-level BI Community of Practice (BI-CoP) developed and sustained by the NSF-funded Center for Advancing Research Impacts in Society (ARIS) contributed to the development and continuing evolution of an institutional-level BI CoP at a large land-grant public university. The personal narratives of members of the institutional-level BI-CoP reveal how the ARIS BI-CoP has supported their learning, fostered collaboration around BI at their institution, supported the development of an institutional BI-CoP, and increased their capacity to assist researchers with developing and implementing BI plans. The experiences of consultants and researchers demonstrate that supportive and well-resourced BI-CoPs at the national and institutional level are essential for making effective use of the Toolkit and developing BI plans that are innovative, inclusive, and impactful. 

   more » « less
5. Epidemiological impacts of post-infection mortality

   https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.0343  

   Saad-Roy, Chadi M.; Levin, Simon A.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Boots, Mike (July 2023, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences)

   Infectious diseases may cause some long-term damage to their host, leading to elevated mortality even after recovery. Mortality due to complications from so-called ‘long COVID’ is a stark illustration of this potential, but the impacts of such post-infection mortality (PIM) on epidemic dynamics are not known. Using an epidemiological model that incorporates PIM, we examine the importance of this effect. We find that in contrast to mortality during infection, PIM can induce epidemic cycling. The effect is due to interference between elevated mortality and reinfection through the previously infected susceptible pool. In particular, robust immunity (via decreased susceptibility to reinfection) reduces the likelihood of cycling; on the other hand, disease-induced mortality can interact with weak PIM to generate periodicity. In the absence of PIM, we prove that the unique endemic equilibrium is stable and therefore our key result is that PIM is an overlooked phenomenon that is likely to be destabilizing. Overall, given potentially widespread effects, our findings highlight the importance of characterizing heterogeneity in susceptibility (via both PIM and robustness of host immunity) for accurate epidemiological predictions. In particular, for diseases without robust immunity, such as SARS-CoV-2, PIM may underlie complex epidemiological dynamics especially in the context of seasonal forcing. 

   more » « less