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Abstract A 6.5-month, convection-permitting simulation is conducted over Argentina covering the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations and Clouds, Aerosols, and Complex Terrain Interactions (RELAMPAGO-CACTI) field campaign and is compared with observations to evaluate mesoscale convective system (MCS) growth prediction. Observed and simulated MCSs are consistently identified, tracked, and separated into growth, mature, and decay stages using top-of-the-atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface rainfall. Simulated MCS number, lifetime, seasonal and diurnal cycles, and various cloud-shield characteristics including growth rate are similar to those observed. However, the simulation produces smaller rainfall areas, greater proportions of heavy rainfall, and faster system propagations. Rainfall area is significantly underestimated for long-lived MCSs but not for shorter-lived MCSs, and rain rates are always overestimated. These differences result from a combination of model and satellite retrieval biases, in which simulated MCS rain rates are shifted from light to heavy, while satellite-retrieved rainfall is too frequent relative to rain gauge estimates. However, the simulation reproduces satellite-retrieved MCS cloud-shield evolution well, supporting its usage to examine environmental controls on MCS growth. MCS initiation locations are associated with removal of convective inhibition more than maximized low-level moisture convergence or instability. Rapid growth is associated with a stronger upper-level jet (ULJ) and a deeper northwestern Argentinean low that causes a stronger northerly low-level jet (LLJ), increasing heat and moisture fluxes, low-level vertical wind shear, baroclinicity, and instability. Sustained growth corresponds to similar LLJ, baroclinicity, and instability conditions but is less sensitive to the ULJ, large-scale vertical motion, or low-level shear. Growth sustenance controls MCS maximum extent more than growth rate.
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Quasi-Idealized Numerical Simulations of Processes Involved in Orogenic Convection Initiation over the Sierras de Córdoba
Abstract The Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) range in Argentina is a hotspot of deep moist convection initiation (CI). Radar climatology indicates that 44% of daytime CI events that occur near the SDC in spring and summer seasons and that are not associated with the passage of a cold front or an outflow boundary involve a northerly low-level jet (LLJ), and these events tend to preferentially occur over the southeast quadrant of the main ridge of the SDC. To investigate the physical mechanisms acting to cause CI, idealized convection-permitting numerical simulations with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km were conducted using Cloud Model 1 (CM1). The sounding used for initializing the model featured a strong northerly LLJ, with synoptic conditions resembling those in a previously postulated conceptual model of CI over the region, making it a canonical case study. Differential heating of the mountain caused by solar insolation in conjunction with the low-level northerly flow sets up a convergence line on the eastern slopes of the SDC. The southern portion of this line experiences significant reduction in convective inhibition, and CI occurs over the SDC southeast quadrant. The simulated storm soon acquires supercellular characteristics, as observed. Additional simulations with varying LLJ strength also show CI over the southeast quadrant. A simulation without background flow generated convergence over the ridgeline, with widespread CI across the entire ridgeline. A simulation with mid- and upper-tropospheric westerlies removed indicates that CI is minimally influenced by gravity waves. We conclude that the low-level jet is sufficient to focus convection initiation over the southeast quadrant of the ridge.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1661799
- PAR ID:
- 10387896
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
- Volume:
- 79
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 0022-4928
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1127 to 1149
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-21-0007.1
