Title: Longer duration of seasonal stratification contributes to widespread increases in lake hypoxia and anoxia
Abstract
The concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO) is an important attribute of aquatic ecosystems, influencing habitat, drinking water quality, biodiversity, nutrient biogeochemistry, and greenhouse gas emissions. While average summer DO concentrations are declining in lakes across the temperate zone, much remains unknown about seasonal factors contributing to deepwater DO losses. It is unclear whether declines are related to increasing rates of seasonal DO depletion or changes in seasonal stratification that limit re‐oxygenation of deep waters. Furthermore, despite the presence of important biological and ecological DO thresholds, there has been no large‐scale assessment of changes in the amount of habitat crossing these thresholds, limiting the ability to understand the consequences of observed DO losses. We used a dataset from >400 widely distributed lakes to identify the drivers of DO losses and quantify the frequency and volume of lake water crossing biologically and ecologically important threshold concentrations ranging from 5 to 0.5 mg/L. Our results show that while there were no consistent changes over time in seasonal DO depletion rates, over three‐quarters of lakes exhibited an increase in the duration of stratification, providing more time for seasonal deepwater DO depletion to occur. As a result, most lakes have experienced summertime increases in the amount of water below all examined thresholds in deepwater DO concentration, with increases in the proportion of the water column below thresholds ranging between 0.9% and 1.7% per decade. In the 30‐day period preceding the end of stratification, increases were greater at >2.2% per decade and >70% of analyzed lakes experienced increases in the amount of oxygen‐depleted water. These results indicate ongoing climate‐induced increases in the duration of stratification have already contributed to reduction of habitat for many species, likely increased internal nutrient loading, and otherwise altered lake chemistry. Future warming is likely to exacerbate these trends.
Ladwig, Robert; Hanson, Paul C.; Dugan, Hilary A.; Carey, Cayelan C.; Zhang, Yu; Shu, Lele; Duffy, Christopher J.; Cobourn, Kelly M.(
, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences)
null
(Ed.)
Abstract. The concentration of oxygen is fundamental to lake water quality and ecosystem functioning through its control over habitat availability for organisms, redox reactions, and recycling of organic material. In many eutrophic lakes, oxygen depletion in the bottom layer (hypolimnion) occurs annually during summer stratification. The temporal and spatial extent of summer hypolimnetic anoxia is determined by interactions between the lake and its external drivers (e.g., catchment characteristics, nutrient loads, meteorology) as well as internal feedback mechanisms (e.g., organic matter recycling, phytoplankton blooms). How these drivers interact to control the evolution of lake anoxia over decadal timescales will determine, in part, the future lake water quality. In this study, we used a vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic–ecological model (GLM-AED2) coupled with a calibrated hydrological catchment model (PIHM-Lake) to simulate the thermal and water quality dynamics of the eutrophic Lake Mendota (USA) over a 37 year period. The calibration and validation of the lake model consisted of a global sensitivity evaluation as well as the application of an optimization algorithm to improve the fit between observed and simulated data. We calculated stability indices (Schmidt stability, Birgean work, stored internal heat), identified spring mixing and summer stratification periods, and quantified the energy required for stratification and mixing. To qualify which external and internal factors were most important in driving the interannual variation in summer anoxia, we applied a random-forest classifier and multiple linear regressions to modeled ecosystem variables (e.g., stratification onset and offset, ice duration, gross primary production). Lake Mendota exhibited prolonged hypolimnetic anoxia each summer, lasting between 50–60 d. The summer heat budget, the timing of thermal stratification, and the gross primary production in the epilimnion prior to summer stratification were the most important predictors of the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia periods in Lake Mendota. Interannual variability in anoxia was largely driven by physical factors: earlier onset of thermal stratification in combination with a higher vertical stability strongly affected the duration and spatial extent of summer anoxia. A measured step change upward in summer anoxia in 2010 was unexplained by the GLM-AED2 model. Although the cause remains unknown, possible factors include invasion by the predacious zooplankton Bythotrephes longimanus. As the heat budget depended primarily on external meteorological conditions, the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia in Lake Mendota is likely to increase in the near future as a result of projected climate change in the region.
Abstract. Hypolimnetic oxygen depletion during summer stratification in lakes can lead to hypoxic and anoxic conditions. Hypolimnetic anoxia is a water quality issue with many consequences, including reduced habitat for cold-water fish species, reduced quality of drinking water, and increased nutrient and organic carbon (OC) release from sediments. Both allochthonous and autochthonous OC loads contribute to oxygen depletion by providing substrate for microbial respiration; however, their relative contributions to oxygen depletion across diverse lake systems remain uncertain. Lake characteristics, such as trophic state, hydrology, and morphometry, are also influential in carbon-cycling processes and may impact oxygen depletion dynamics. To investigate the effects of carbon cycling on hypolimnetic oxygen depletion, we used a two-layer process-based lake model to simulate daily metabolism dynamics for six Wisconsin lakes over 20 years (1995–2014). Physical processes and internal metabolic processes were included in the model and were used to predict dissolved oxygen (DO), particulate OC (POC), and dissolved OC (DOC). In our study of oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and eutrophic lakes, we found autochthony to be far more important than allochthony to hypolimnetic oxygen depletion. Autochthonous POC respiration in the water column contributed the most towards hypolimnetic oxygen depletion in the eutrophic study lakes. POC water column respiration and sediment respiration had similar contributions in the mesotrophic and oligotrophic study lakes. Differences in terms of source of respiration are discussed with consideration of lake productivity and the processing and fates of organic carbon loads.
Pilla, Rachel M.; Couture, Raoul‐Marie(
, Limnology and Oceanography)
We present and evaluate an update to the process‐based lake model MyLake that includes a time‐varying linkage between light attenuation of both photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and ultraviolet (UV) radiation wavelengths to changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC). In many parts of northeastern North America and Europe, DOC in lakes has rapidly increased, leading to reduced water transparency and increases in light attenuation. These changes alter the vertical light and heat distribution that affect vertical structuring of temperature and dissolved oxygen. We use this model update to test the responsiveness of PAR and UV attenuation to short‐term fluctuations in DOC and with a test case of long‐term browning at Lake Giles (Pennsylvania). Lake Giles has browned significantly since the late 1980s, and three decades of detailed empirical data have indicated more than a doubling of DOC concentrations, and consequent increases in PAR and UV attenuation, warming surface waters, cooling deep waters, and increasing deepwater oxygen depletion. We found that the model performance improved by 16% and 52% for long‐term trends in PAR and UV attenuation, respectively, when these coefficients respond directly to in‐lake DOC concentrations. Further, long‐term trends in surface water warming, deepwater cooling, and deepwater oxygen depletion in Lake Giles were better captured by the model following this update, and were very rapid due to its high water transparency and low DOC. Hence, incorporating a responsive link between DOC and light attenuation in lake models is key to understanding long‐term lake browning patterns, mechanisms, and ecological consequences.
Green Lake is the deepest natural inland lake in Wisconsin, with a maximum depth of about 72 meters. In the early 1900s, the lake was believed to have very good water quality (low nutrient concentrations and good water clarity) with low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations occurring in only the deepest part of the lake. Because of increased phosphorus (P) inputs from anthropogenic activities in its watershed, total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the lake have increased; these changes have led to increased algal production and low DO concentrations not only in the deepest areas but also in the middle of the water column (metalimnion). The U.S. Geological Survey has routinely monitored the lake since 2004 and its tributaries since 1988. Results from this monitoring led the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) to list the lake as impaired because of low DO concentrations in the metalimnion, and they identified elevated TP concentrations as the cause of impairment.
As part of this study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Green Lake Sanitary District, the lake and its tributaries were comprehensively sampled in 2017–18 to augment ongoing monitoring that would further describe the low DO concentrations in the lake (especially in the metalimnion). Empirical and process-driven water-quality models were then used to determine the causes of the low DO concentrations and the magnitudes of P-load reductions needed to improve the water quality of the lake enough to meet multiple water-quality goals, including the WDNR’s criteria for TP and DO.
Data from previous studies showed that DO concentrations in the metalimnion decreased slightly as summer progressed in the early 1900s but, since the late 1970s, have typically dropped below 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L), which is the WDNR criterion for impairment. During 2014–18 (the baseline period for this study), the near-surface geometric mean TP concentration during June–September in the east side of the lake was 0.020 mg/L and in the west side was 0.016 mg/L (both were above the 0.015-mg/L WDNR criterion for the lake), and the metalimnetic DO minimum concentrations (MOMs) measured in August ranged from 1.0 to 4.7 mg/L. The degradation in water quality was assumed to have been caused by excessive P inputs to the lake; therefore, the TP inputs to the lake were estimated. The mean annual external P load during 2014–18 was estimated to be 8,980 kilograms per year (kg/yr), of which monitored and unmonitored tributary inputs contributed 84 percent, atmospheric inputs contributed 8 percent, waterfowl contributed 7 percent, and septic systems contributed 1 percent. During fall turnover, internal sediment recycling contributed an additional 7,040 kilograms that increased TP concentrations in shallow areas of the lake by about 0.020 mg/L. The elevated TP concentrations then persisted until the following spring. On an annual basis, however, there was a net deposition of P to the bottom sediments.
Empirical models were used to describe how the near-surface water quality of Green Lake would be expected to respond to changes in external P loading. Predictions from the models showed a relatively linear response between P loading and TP and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations in the lake, with the changes in TP and Chl-a concentrations being less on a percentage basis (50–60 percent for TP and 30–70 percent for Chl-a) than the changes in P loading. Mean summer water clarity, quantified by Secchi disk depths, had a greater response to decreases in P loading than to increases in P loading. Based on these relations, external P loading to the lake would need to be decreased from 8,980 kg/yr to about 5,460 kg/yr for the geometric mean June–September TP concentration in the east side of the lake, with higher TP concentrations than in the west side, to reach the WDNR criterion of 0.015 mg/L. This reduction of 3,520 kg/yr is equivalent to a 46-percent reduction in the potentially controllable external P sources (all external sources except for precipitation, atmospheric deposition, and waterfowl) from those measured during water years 2014–18. The total external P loading would need to decrease to 7,680 kg/yr (a 17-percent reduction in potentially controllable external P sources) for near-surface June–September TP concentrations in the west side of the lake to reach 0.015 mg/L. Total external P loading would need to decrease to 3,870–5,320 kg/yr for the lake to be classified as oligotrophic, with a near-surface June–September TP concentration of 0.012 mg/L.
Results from the hydrodynamic water-quality model GLM–AED (General Lake Model coupled to the Aquatic Ecodynamics modeling library) indicated that MOMs are driven by external P loading and internal sediment recycling that lead to high TP concentrations during spring and early summer, which in turn lead to high phytoplankton production, high metabolism and respiration, and ultimately DO consumption in the upper, warmer areas of the metalimnion. GLM–AED results indicated that settling of organic material during summer might be slowed by the colder, denser, and more viscous water in the metalimnion and thus increase DO consumption. Based on empirical evidence from a comparison of MOMs with various meteorological, hydrologic, water quality, and in-lake physical factors, MOMs were lower during summers, when metalimnetic water temperatures were warmer, near-surface Chl-a and TP concentrations were higher, and Secchi depths were lower. GLM–AED results indicated that the external P load would need to be reduced to about 4,060 kg/yr, a 57-percent reduction from that measured in 2014–18, to eliminate the occurrence of MOMs less than 5 mg/L during more than 75 percent of the years (the target provided by the WDNR).
Large reductions in external P loading are expected to have an immediate effect on the near-surface TP concentrations and metalimnetic DO concentrations in Green Lake; however, it may take several years for the full effects of the external-load reduction to be observed because internal sediment recycling is an important source of P for the following spring.
Pilla, Rachel M.; Williamson, Craig E.; Adamovich, Boris V.; Adrian, Rita; Anneville, Orlane; Chandra, Sudeep; Colom-Montero, William; Devlin, Shawn P.; Dix, Margaret A.; Dokulil, Martin T.; et al(
, Scientific Reports)
null
(Ed.)
Abstract Globally, lake surface water temperatures have warmed rapidly relative to air temperatures, but changes in deepwater temperatures and vertical thermal structure are still largely unknown. We have compiled the most comprehensive data set to date of long-term (1970–2009) summertime vertical temperature profiles in lakes across the world to examine trends and drivers of whole-lake vertical thermal structure. We found significant increases in surface water temperatures across lakes at an average rate of + 0.37 °C decade −1 , comparable to changes reported previously for other lakes, and similarly consistent trends of increasing water column stability (+ 0.08 kg m −3 decade −1 ). In contrast, however, deepwater temperature trends showed little change on average (+ 0.06 °C decade −1 ), but had high variability across lakes, with trends in individual lakes ranging from − 0.68 °C decade −1 to + 0.65 °C decade −1 . The variability in deepwater temperature trends was not explained by trends in either surface water temperatures or thermal stability within lakes, and only 8.4% was explained by lake thermal region or local lake characteristics in a random forest analysis. These findings suggest that external drivers beyond our tested lake characteristics are important in explaining long-term trends in thermal structure, such as local to regional climate patterns or additional external anthropogenic influences.
Jane, Stephen F., Mincer, Joshua L., Lau, Maximilian P., Lewis, Abigail S. L., Stetler, Jonathan T., and Rose, Kevin C. Longer duration of seasonal stratification contributes to widespread increases in lake hypoxia and anoxia. Global Change Biology 29.4 Web. doi:10.1111/gcb.16525.
Jane, Stephen F., Mincer, Joshua L., Lau, Maximilian P., Lewis, Abigail S. L., Stetler, Jonathan T., & Rose, Kevin C. Longer duration of seasonal stratification contributes to widespread increases in lake hypoxia and anoxia. Global Change Biology, 29 (4). https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16525
Jane, Stephen F., Mincer, Joshua L., Lau, Maximilian P., Lewis, Abigail S. L., Stetler, Jonathan T., and Rose, Kevin C.
"Longer duration of seasonal stratification contributes to widespread increases in lake hypoxia and anoxia". Global Change Biology 29 (4). Country unknown/Code not available: Wiley-Blackwell. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16525.https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10391448.
@article{osti_10391448,
place = {Country unknown/Code not available},
title = {Longer duration of seasonal stratification contributes to widespread increases in lake hypoxia and anoxia},
url = {https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10391448},
DOI = {10.1111/gcb.16525},
abstractNote = {Abstract The concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO) is an important attribute of aquatic ecosystems, influencing habitat, drinking water quality, biodiversity, nutrient biogeochemistry, and greenhouse gas emissions. While average summer DO concentrations are declining in lakes across the temperate zone, much remains unknown about seasonal factors contributing to deepwater DO losses. It is unclear whether declines are related to increasing rates of seasonal DO depletion or changes in seasonal stratification that limit re‐oxygenation of deep waters. Furthermore, despite the presence of important biological and ecological DO thresholds, there has been no large‐scale assessment of changes in the amount of habitat crossing these thresholds, limiting the ability to understand the consequences of observed DO losses. We used a dataset from >400 widely distributed lakes to identify the drivers of DO losses and quantify the frequency and volume of lake water crossing biologically and ecologically important threshold concentrations ranging from 5 to 0.5 mg/L. Our results show that while there were no consistent changes over time in seasonal DO depletion rates, over three‐quarters of lakes exhibited an increase in the duration of stratification, providing more time for seasonal deepwater DO depletion to occur. As a result, most lakes have experienced summertime increases in the amount of water below all examined thresholds in deepwater DO concentration, with increases in the proportion of the water column below thresholds ranging between 0.9% and 1.7% per decade. In the 30‐day period preceding the end of stratification, increases were greater at >2.2% per decade and >70% of analyzed lakes experienced increases in the amount of oxygen‐depleted water. These results indicate ongoing climate‐induced increases in the duration of stratification have already contributed to reduction of habitat for many species, likely increased internal nutrient loading, and otherwise altered lake chemistry. Future warming is likely to exacerbate these trends.},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
volume = {29},
number = {4},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
author = {Jane, Stephen F. and Mincer, Joshua L. and Lau, Maximilian P. and Lewis, Abigail S. L. and Stetler, Jonathan T. and Rose, Kevin C.},
}
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