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1. Isolating non-subduction-driven tectonic processes in Cascadia

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-021-00181-z  

   McKenzie, K. A.; Furlong, K. P. (December 2021, Geoscience Letters)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Several tectonic processes combine to produce the crustal deformation observed across the Cascadia margin: (1) Cascadia subduction, (2) the northward propagation of the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ), (3) the translation of the Sierra Nevada–Great Valley (SNGV) block along the Eastern California Shear Zone–Walker Lane and, (3) extension in the northwestern Basin and Range, east of the Cascade Arc. The superposition of deformation associated with these processes produces the present-day GPS velocity field. North of ~ 45° N observed crustal displacements are consistent with inter-seismic subduction coupling. South of ~ 45° N, NNW-directed crustal shortening produced by the Mendocino crustal conveyor (MCC) and deformation associated with SNGV-block motion overprint the NE-directed Cascadia subduction coupling signal. Embedded in this overall pattern of crustal deformation is the rigid translation of the Klamath terrane, bounded on its north and west by localized zones of deformation. Since the MCC and SNGV processes migrate northward, their impact on the crustal deformation in southern Cascadia is a relatively recent phenomenon, since ~ 2 –3 Ma. 

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2. Limits to coseismic landslides triggered by Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2022.108477  

   Grant, Alex RR; Struble, William T; LaHusen, Sean R (December 2022, Geomorphology)

   Landslides are a significant hazard and dominant feature throughout the landscape of the Pacific Northwest. However, the hazard and risk posed by coseismic landslides triggered by great Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquakes is highly uncertain due to a lack of local and global data. Despite a wealth of other geologic evidence for past earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone, no landslides have been definitively linked to such earthquakes, even in areas otherwise highly susceptible to failure. While shallow landslides may not leave a lasting topographical signature in the landscape, there are thousands of deep-seated landslides in Cascadia, and these deposits often persist for hundreds of years and multiple earthquake cycles. Synthesizing newly developed inventories of dated large deep-seated landslides in the Oregon Coast Range, we use statistical methods to estimate the proportion of these types of landslides that could have been triggered during past great Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes. Statistical analysis of high-precision dendrochronology ages of landslide-dammed lakes and surface roughness-dated bedrock landslides reveal Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes may have triggered 0–15 % of large deep-seated landslides in the Oregon Coast Range over multiple earthquake cycles. Our results refine estimates from previous studies and further suggest that coseismic triggering accounts for a small fraction of the total deep-seated bedrock landslides mapped in coastal Cascadia. However, if the real rate of coseismic landslide triggering during CSZ earthquakes is near our estimated upper bound for the 1700 CSZ earthquake, we estimate up to 2400 coseismic large deep-seated landslides could occur in the Oregon Coast Range in a single earthquake. These findings suggest Cascadia is consistent with global observations from other subduction zones and that coseismic landslides may still represent a serious geohazard in the region. 

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3. Subducting plate structure and megathrust morphology from deep seismic imaging linked to earthquake rupture segmentation at Cascadia

   https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl3198  

   Carbotte, Suzanne M; Boston, Brian; Han, Shuoshuo; Shuck, Brandon; Beeson, Jeffrey; Canales, J Pablo; Tobin, Harold; Miller, Nathan; Nedimovic, Mladen; Tréhu, Anne; et al (June 2024, Science Advances)

   The origin of rupture segmentation along subduction zone megathrusts and linkages to the structural evolution of the subduction zone are poorly understood. Here, regional-scale seismic imaging of the Cascadia margin is used to characterize the megathrust spanning ~900 km from Vancouver Island to the California border, across the seismogenic zone to a few tens of kilometers from the coast. Discrete domains in lower plate geometry and sediment underthrusting are identified, not evident in prior regional plate models, which align with changes in lithology and structure of the upper plate and interpreted paleo-rupture patches. Strike-slip faults in the lower plate associated with oblique subduction mark boundaries between regions of distinct lower plate geometry. Their formation may be linked to changes in upper plate structure across long-lived upper plate faults. The Juan de Fuca plate is fragmenting within the seismogenic zone at Cascadia as the young plate bends beneath the heterogeneous upper plate resulting in structural domains that coincide with paleo-rupture segmentation. 

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4. Regional and Local Patterns of Upper‐Plate Deformation in Cascadia: The Importance of the Down‐Dip Extent of Locking Relative to Upper‐Plate Strength Contrasts

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021TC007062  

   McKenzie, K. A.; Furlong, K. P.; Herman, M. W. (January 2022, Tectonics)

   Abstract The details of subduction zone locking place constraints on the characteristics of megathrust events. Due to the lack of significant present‐day seismicity along the Cascadia subduction interface, geodetic data are used to assess subduction locking along the margin. We isolate the subduction signal from other tectonic signals within the Cascadia GPS field, to assess the details of plate‐interface locking. Apparent coupling determined by a simple homogenous elastic half‐space inversion cannot everywhere reproduce the subduction component of the GPS field. Consequently, we explore the relationships among upper‐plate strength, locking depth and the resulting surface velocity signal using 2D finite element models. When the upper plate is composed of a weak material, trenchward of a strong backstop, we find that the down‐dip limit of locking relative to the location of the weak‐to‐strong transition controls how upper‐plate deformation is spatially distributed. If locking extends into the stronger material, as observed in central Cascadia, the surface velocity field propagates farther inland than expected from a simple homogeneous elastic model. In contrast, in southern Cascadia, because locking terminates within the weak accretionary margin, upper‐plate shortening is localized within the weaker material, particularly in the region between the end of locking and the strong Klamath terrane. This behavior provides a possible mechanism for producing the high (geodetic and permanent) uplift rates, plate‐motion‐parallel shortening, and crustal exhumation observed in many active and fossil subduction zones. 

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5. No evidence for an active margin-spanning megasplay fault at the Cascadia Subduction Zone

   https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v2i4.1477  

   Lucas, Madeleine C; Ledeczi, Anna M; Tobin, Harold J; Carbotte, Suzanne M; Watt, Janet T; Han, Shuoshuo; Boston, Brian; Jiang, Danqi (September 2023, Seismica)

   It has been previously proposed that a megasplay fault within the Cascadia accretionary wedge, spanning from offshore Vancouver Island to Oregon, has the potential to slip during a future Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. This hypothetical fault has major implications for tsunami size and arrival times and is included in disaster-planning scenarios currently in use in the region. This hypothesis is evaluated in this study using CASIE21 deep-penetrating and U.S. Geological Survey high-resolution seismic reflection profiles. We map changes in wedge structural style and seismic character to identify the inner-outer wedge transition zone where a megasplay fault has been previously hypothesized to exist and evaluate evidence for active faulting within this zone. Our results indicate that there is not an active, through-going megasplay fault in Cascadia, but instead, the structure and activity of faulting at the inner-outer wedge transition zone is highly variable and segmented along strike, consistent with the segmentation of other physical and mechanical properties in Cascadia. Wedge sedimentation, plate dip, and subducting topography are proposed to play a major role in controlling megasplay fault development and evolution. Incorporating updated megasplay fault location, geometry, and activity into modeling of Cascadia earthquakes and tsunamis could help better constrain associated hazards. 

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