To tackle the severe fine particle (PM2.5) pollution in China, the government has implemented stringent control policies mainly on power plants, industry, and transportation since 2005, but estimates of the effectiveness of the policy and the temporal trends in health impacts are subject to large uncertainties. By adopting an integrated approach that combines chemical transport simulation, ambient/household exposure evaluation, and health-impact assessment, we find that the integrated population-weighted exposure to PM2.5(IPWE) decreased by 47% (95% confidence interval, 37–55%) from 2005 [180 (146–219) μg/m3] to 2015 [96 (83–111) μg/m3]. Unexpectedly, 90% (86–93%) of such reduction is attributed to reduced household solid-fuel use, primarily resulting from rapid urbanization and improved incomes rather than specific control policies. The IPWE due to household fuels for both cooking and heating decreased, but the impact of cooking is significantly larger. The reduced household-related IPWE is estimated to avoid 0.40 (0.25–0.57) million premature deaths annually, accounting for 33% of the PM2.5-induced mortality in 2015. The IPWE would be further reduced by 63% (57–68%) if the remaining household solid fuels were replaced by clean fuels, which would avoid an additional 0.51 (0.40–0.64) million premature deaths. Such a transition to clean fuels, especially for heating, requires technology innovation and policy support to overcome the barriers of high cost of distribution systems, as is recently being attempted in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area. We suggest that household-fuel use be more highly prioritized in national control policies, considering its effects on PM2.5exposures.
more »
« less
The Effects of Trash, Residential Biofuel, and Open Biomass Burning Emissions on Local and Transported PM 2.5 and Its Attributed Mortality in Africa
Abstract Long‐term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is the second leading risk factor of premature death in Sub‐Saharan Africa. We use GEOS‐Chem to quantify the effects of (a) trash burning, (b) residential solid‐fuel burning, and (c) open biomass burning (BB) (i.e., landscape fires) on ambient PM2.5and PM2.5‐attributable mortality in Africa. Using a series of sensitivity simulations, we excluded each of the three combustion sources in each of five African regions. We estimate that in 2017 emissions from these three combustion sources within Africa increased global ambient PM2.5by 2%, leading to 203,000 (95% confidence interval: 133,000–259,000) premature mortalities yr−1globally and 167,000 premature mortalities yr−1in Africa. BB contributes more ambient PM2.5‐related premature mortalities per year (63%) than residential solid‐fuel burning (29%) and trash burning (8%). Open BB in Central Africa leads to the largest number of PM2.5‐attributed mortalities inside the region, while trash burning in North Africa and residential solid‐fuel burning in West Africa contribute the most regional mortalities for each source. Overall, Africa has a unique ambient air pollution profile because natural sources, such as windblown dust and BB, contribute strongly to ambient PM2.5levels and PM2.5‐related mortality. Air pollution policies may need to focus on taking preventative measures to avoid exposure to ambient PM2.5from these less‐controllable sources.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1831013
- PAR ID:
- 10396021
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- GeoHealth
- Volume:
- 7
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 2471-1403
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is the world’s leading environmental health risk factor. Quantification is needed of regional contributions to changes in global PM2.5exposure. Here we interpret satellite-derived PM2.5estimates over 1998-2019 and find a reversal of previous growth in global PM2.5air pollution, which is quantitatively attributed to contributions from 13 regions. Global population-weighted (PW) PM2.5exposure, related to both pollution levels and population size, increased from 1998 (28.3 μg/m3) to a peak in 2011 (38.9 μg/m3) and decreased steadily afterwards (34.7 μg/m3in 2019). Post-2011 change was related to exposure reduction in China and slowed exposure growth in other regions (especially South Asia, the Middle East and Africa). The post-2011 exposure reduction contributes to stagnation of growth in global PM2.5-attributable mortality and increasing health benefits per µg/m3marginal reduction in exposure, implying increasing urgency and benefits of PM2.5mitigation with aging population and cleaner air.more » « less
-
Abstract Ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is the world’s leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM 2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. We provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of sector- and fuel-specific contributions to this disease burden across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 sub-national areas by integrating 24 global atmospheric chemistry-transport model sensitivity simulations, high-resolution satellite-derived PM 2.5 exposure estimates, and disease-specific concentration response relationships. Globally, 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.74–1.36) million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion (27.3% of the total PM 2.5 burden), with coal contributing to over half. Other dominant global sources included residential (0.74 [0.52–0.95] million deaths; 19.2%), industrial (0.45 [0.32–0.58] million deaths; 11.7%), and energy (0.39 [0.28–0.51] million deaths; 10.2%) sectors. Our results show that regions with large anthropogenic contributions generally had the highest attributable deaths, suggesting substantial health benefits from replacing traditional energy sources.more » « less
-
Abstract AimTwo important environmental hazards for nocturnally migrating birds are artificial light at night (ALAN) and air pollution, with ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) considered to be especially harmful. Nocturnally migrating birds are attracted to ALAN during seasonal migration, which could increase exposure to PM2.5. Here, we examine PM2.5concentrations and PM2.5trends and the spatial correlation between ALAN and PM2.5within the geographical ranges of the world’s nocturnally migrating birds. LocationGlobal. Time period1998–2018. Major taxa studiedNocturnally migrating birds. MethodsWe intersected a global database of annual mean PM2.5concentrations over a 21‐year period (1998–2018) with the geographical ranges (breeding, non‐breeding and regions of passage) of 225 nocturnally migrating bird species in three migration flyways (Americas,n = 143; Africa–Europe,n = 36; and East Asia–Australia,n = 46). For each species, we estimated PM2.5concentrations and trends and measured the correlation between ALAN and PM2.5, which we summarized by season and flyway. ResultsCorrelations between ALAN and PM2.5were significantly positive across all seasons and flyways. The East Asia–Australia flyway had the strongest ALAN–PM2.5correlations within regions of passage, the highest PM2.5concentrations across all three seasons and the strongest positive PM2.5trends on the non‐breeding grounds and within regions of passage. The Americas flyway had the strongest negative air pollution trends on the non‐breeding grounds and within regions of passage. The breeding grounds had similarly negative air pollution trends within the three flyways. Main conclusionsThe combined threats of ALAN and air pollution are greatest and likely to be increasing within the East Asia–Australia flyway and lowest and likely to be decreasing within the Americas and Africa–Europe flyways. Reversing PM2.5trends in the East Asia–Australia flyway and maintaining negative PM2.5trends in the Americas and Africa–Europe flyways while reducing ALAN levels would likely be beneficial for the nocturnally migrating bird populations in each region.more » « less
-
Abstract Wildfires cause elevated air pollution that can be detrimental to human health. However, health impact assessments associated with emissions from wildfire events are subject to uncertainty arising from different sources. Here, we quantify and compare major uncertainties in mortality and morbidity outcomes of exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution estimated for a series of wildfires in the Southeastern U.S. We present an approach to compare uncertainty in estimated health impacts specifically due to two driving factors, wildfire‐related smoke PM2.5fields and variability in concentration‐response parameters from epidemiologic studies of ambient and smoke PM2.5. This analysis, focused on the 2016 Southeastern wildfires, suggests that emissions from these fires had public health consequences in North Carolina. Using several methods based on publicly available monitor data and atmospheric models to represent wildfire‐attributable PM2.5, we estimate impacts on several health outcomes and quantify associated uncertainty. Multiple concentration‐response parameters derived from studies of ambient and wildfire‐specific PM2.5are used to assess health‐related uncertainty. Results show large variability and uncertainty in wildfire impact estimates, with comparable uncertainties due to the smoke pollution fields and health response parameters for some outcomes, but substantially larger health‐related uncertainty for several outcomes. Consideration of these uncertainties can support efforts to improve estimates of wildfire impacts and inform fire‐related decision‐making.more » « less
An official website of the United States government
