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Abstract Long‐term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is the second leading risk factor of premature death in Sub‐Saharan Africa. We use GEOS‐Chem to quantify the effects of (a) trash burning, (b) residential solid‐fuel burning, and (c) open biomass burning (BB) (i.e., landscape fires) on ambient PM2.5and PM2.5‐attributable mortality in Africa. Using a series of sensitivity simulations, we excluded each of the three combustion sources in each of five African regions. We estimate that in 2017 emissions from these three combustion sources within Africa increased global ambient PM2.5by 2%, leading to 203,000 (95% confidence interval: 133,000–259,000) premature mortalities yr−1globally and 167,000 premature mortalities yr−1in Africa. BB contributes more ambient PM2.5‐related premature mortalities per year (63%) than residential solid‐fuel burning (29%) and trash burning (8%). Open BB in Central Africa leads to the largest number of PM2.5‐attributed mortalities inside the region, while trash burning in North Africa and residential solid‐fuel burning in West Africa contribute the most regional mortalities for each source. Overall, Africa has a unique ambient air pollution profile because natural sources, such as windblown dust and BB, contribute strongly to ambient PM2.5levels and PM2.5‐related mortality. Air pollution policies may need to focus on taking preventative measures to avoid exposure to ambient PM2.5from these less‐controllable sources.
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Change in household fuels dominates the decrease in PM 2.5 exposure and premature mortality in China in 2005–2015
To tackle the severe fine particle (PM2.5) pollution in China, the government has implemented stringent control policies mainly on power plants, industry, and transportation since 2005, but estimates of the effectiveness of the policy and the temporal trends in health impacts are subject to large uncertainties. By adopting an integrated approach that combines chemical transport simulation, ambient/household exposure evaluation, and health-impact assessment, we find that the integrated population-weighted exposure to PM2.5(IPWE) decreased by 47% (95% confidence interval, 37–55%) from 2005 [180 (146–219) μg/m3] to 2015 [96 (83–111) μg/m3]. Unexpectedly, 90% (86–93%) of such reduction is attributed to reduced household solid-fuel use, primarily resulting from rapid urbanization and improved incomes rather than specific control policies. The IPWE due to household fuels for both cooking and heating decreased, but the impact of cooking is significantly larger. The reduced household-related IPWE is estimated to avoid 0.40 (0.25–0.57) million premature deaths annually, accounting for 33% of the PM2.5-induced mortality in 2015. The IPWE would be further reduced by 63% (57–68%) if the remaining household solid fuels were replaced by clean fuels, which would avoid an additional 0.51 (0.40–0.64) million premature deaths. Such a transition to clean fuels, especially for heating, requires technology innovation and policy support to overcome the barriers of high cost of distribution systems, as is recently being attempted in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area. We suggest that household-fuel use be more highly prioritized in national control policies, considering its effects on PM2.5exposures.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1701526
- PAR ID:
- 10079875
- Publisher / Repository:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 115
- Issue:
- 49
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 12401-12406
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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