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1. Global Characteristics of Observable Foreshocks for Large Earthquakes

   https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220397  

   Wetzler, Nadav ; Lay, Thorne ; Brodsky, Emily E. ( June 2023 , Seismological Research Letters)

   Foreshocks are the only currently widely identified precursory seismic behavior, yet their utility and even identifiability are problematic, in part because of extreme variation in behavior. Here, we establish some global trends that help identify the expected frequency of foreshocks as well the type of earthquake most prone to foreshocks. We establish these tendencies using the global earthquake catalog of the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center with a completeness level of magnitude 5 and mainshocks with Mw≥7.0. Foreshocks are identified using three clustering algorithms to address the challenge of distinguishing foreshocks from background activity. The methods give a range of 15%–43% of large mainshocks having at least one foreshock but a narrower range of 13%–26% having at least one foreshock with magnitude within two units of the mainshock magnitude. These observed global foreshock rates are similar to regional values for a completeness level of magnitude 3 using the same detection conditions. The foreshock sequences have distinctive characteristics with the global composite population b-values being lower for foreshocks than for aftershocks, an attribute that is also manifested in synthetic catalogs computed by epidemic-type aftershock sequences, which intrinsically involves only cascading processes. Focal mechanism similarity of foreshocks relative to mainshocks is more pronounced than for aftershocks. Despite these distinguishing characteristics of foreshock sequences, the conditions that promote high foreshock productivity are similar to those that promote high aftershock productivity. For instance, a modestly higher percentage of interplate mainshocks have foreshocks than intraplate mainshocks, and reverse faulting events slightly more commonly have foreshocks than normal or strike-slip-faulting mainshocks. The western circum-Pacific is prone to having slightly more foreshock activity than the eastern circum-Pacific.

    

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2. Two Foreshock Sequences Post Gulia and Wiemer (2019)

   https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200082  

   Dascher-Cousineau, Kelian ; Lay, Thorne ; Brodsky, Emily E. ( July 2020 , Seismological Research Letters)

   Abstract Recognizing earthquakes as foreshocks in real time would provide a valuable forecasting capability. In a recent study, Gulia and Wiemer (2019) proposed a traffic-light system that relies on abrupt changes in b-values relative to background values. The approach utilizes high-resolution earthquake catalogs to monitor localized regions around the largest events and distinguish foreshock sequences (reduced b-values) from aftershock sequences (increased b-values). The recent well-recorded earthquake foreshock sequences in Ridgecrest, California, and Maria Antonia, Puerto Rico, provide an opportunity to test the procedure. For Ridgecrest, our b-value time series indicates an elevated risk of a larger impending earthquake during the Mw 6.4 foreshock sequence and provides an ambiguous identification of the onset of the Mw 7.1 aftershock sequence. However, the exact result depends strongly on expert judgment. Monte Carlo sampling across a range of reasonable decisions most often results in ambiguous warning levels. In the case of the Puerto Rico sequence, we record significant drops in b-value prior to and following the largest event (Mw 6.4) in the sequence. The b-value has still not returned to background levels (12 February 2020). The Ridgecrest sequence roughly conforms to expectations; the Puerto Rico sequence will only do so if a larger event occurs in the future with an ensuing b-value increase. Any real-time implementation of this approach will require dense instrumentation, consistent (versioned) low completeness catalogs, well-calibrated maps of regionalized background b-values, systematic real-time catalog production, and robust decision making about the event source volumes to analyze. 

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3. Machine-Learning-Based High-Resolution Earthquake Catalog Reveals How Complex Fault Structures Were Activated during the 2016–2017 Central Italy Sequence

   https://doi.org/10.1785/0320210001  

   Tan, Yen Joe ; Waldhauser, Felix ; Ellsworth, William L. ; Zhang, Miao ; Zhu, Weiqiang ; Michele, Maddalena ; Chiaraluce, Lauro ; Beroza, Gregory C. ; Segou, Margarita ( April 2021 , The Seismic Record)

   Abstract The 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence occurred on an 80 km long normal-fault system. The sequence initiated with the Mw 6.0 Amatrice event on 24 August 2016, followed by the Mw 5.9 Visso event on 26 October and the Mw 6.5 Norcia event on 30 October. We analyze continuous data from a dense network of 139 seismic stations to build a high-precision catalog of ∼900,000 earthquakes spanning a 1 yr period, based on arrival times derived using a deep-neural-network-based picker. Our catalog contains an order of magnitude more events than the catalog routinely produced by the local earthquake monitoring agency. Aftershock activity reveals the geometry of complex fault structures activated during the earthquake sequence and provides additional insights into the potential factors controlling the development of the largest events. Activated fault structures in the northern and southern regions appear complementary to faults activated during the 1997 Colfiorito and 2009 L’Aquila sequences, suggesting that earthquake triggering primarily occurs on critically stressed faults. Delineated major fault zones are relatively thick compared to estimated earthquake location uncertainties, and a large number of kilometer-long faults and diffuse seismicity were activated during the sequence. These properties might be related to fault age, roughness, and the complexity of inherited structures. The rich details resolvable in this catalog will facilitate continued investigation of this energetic and well-recorded earthquake sequence. 

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4. Nevada Seismological Laboratory Rapid Seismic Monitoring Deployment and Data Availability for the 2020 Mww 6.5 Monte Cristo Range, Nevada, Earthquake Sequence

   https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200344  

   Bormann, Jayne M. ; Morton, Emily A. ; Smith, Kenneth D. ; Kent, Graham M. ; Honjas, William S. ; Plank, Gabriel L. ; Williams, Mark C. ( January 2021 , Seismological Research Letters)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract The Nevada Seismological Laboratory (NSL) at the University of Nevada, Reno, installed eight temporary seismic stations following the 15 May 2020 Mww 6.5 Monte Cristo Range earthquake. The mainshock and resulting aftershock sequence occurred in an unpopulated and sparsely instrumented region of the Mina deflection in the central Walker Lane, approximately 55 km west of Tonopah, Nevada. The temporary stations supplement NSL’s permanent seismic network, providing azimuthal coverage and near-field recording of the aftershock sequence beginning 1–3 days after the mainshock. We expect the deployment to remain in the field until May 2021. NSL initially attempted to acquire the Monte Cristo Range deployment data in real time via cellular telemetry; however, unreliable cellular coverage forced NSL to convert to microwave telemetry within the first week of the sequence to achieve continuous real-time acquisition. Through 31 August 2020, the temporary deployment has captured near-field records of three aftershocks ML≥5 and 25 ML 4–4.9 events. Here, we present details regarding the Monte Cristo Range deployment, instrumentation, and waveform availability. We combine this information with waveform availability and data access details from NSL’s permanent seismic network and partner regional seismic networks to create a comprehensive summary of Monte Cristo Range sequence data. NSL’s Monte Cristo Range temporary and permanent station waveform data are available in near-real time via the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Data Management Center. Derived earthquake products, including NSL’s earthquake catalog and phase picks, are available via the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog. The temporary deployment improved catalog completeness and location quality for the Monte Cristo Range sequence. We expect these data to be useful for continued study of the Monte Cristo Range sequence and constraining crustal and seismogenic properties of the Mina deflection and central Walker Lane. 

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5. Injection‐Induced Earthquakes on Complex Fault Zones of the Raton Basin Illuminated by Machine‐Learning Phase Picker and Dense Nodal Array

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088168  

   Wang, Ruijia ; Schmandt, Brandon ; Zhang, Miao ; Glasgow, Margaret ; Kiser, Eric ; Rysanek, Sarah ; Stairs, Ryan ( July 2020 , Geophysical Research Letters)

   Seismicity in the Raton Basin over the past two decades suggests reactivation of basement faults due to waste‐water injection. In the summer of 2018, 96 short period three‐component nodal instruments were installed in a highly active region of the basin for a month. A machine‐learning based phase picker (PhaseNet) was adopted and identified millions of picks, which were associated into events using an automated algorithm—REAL (Rapid Earthquake Association and Location). After hypocenter relocation with hypoDD, the earthquake catalog contains 9,259 M_L−2.2 to 3 earthquakes focused at depths of 4–6 km. Magnitude of completeness (Mc) varies from −1 at nighttime to −0.5 in daytime, likely reflecting noise variation modulated by wind. The clustered hypocenters with variable depths and focal mechanisms suggest a complex network of basement faults. Frequency‐magnitude statistics and the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity are comparable to tectonic systems.

    

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