Abstract Two new schemes for identifying field lines involved in eruptions, the r -scheme and q -scheme, are proposed to analyze the eruptive and confined nature of solar flares, as extensions to the original r m scheme proposed in Lin et al. Motivated by three solar flares originating from NOAA Active Region 12192 that are misclassified by r m , we introduce refinements to the r -scheme employing the “magnetic twist flux” to approximate the force balance acting on a magnetic flux rope (MFR); in the q -scheme, the reconnected field is represented by those field lines that anchor in the flare ribbons. Based on data obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, the coronal magnetic field for 51 flares larger than M5.0 class, from 29 distinct active regions, is constructed using a nonlinear force-free field extrapolation model. Statistical analysis based on linear discriminant function analysis is then performed, revealing that despite both schemes providing moderately successful classifications for the 51 flares, the coronal mass ejection-eruptivity classification for the three target events can only be improved with the q -scheme. We find that the highly twisted field lines and the flare-ribbon field lines have equal average force-free constant α , but all of the flare-ribbon-related field lines are shorter than 150 Mm in length. The findings lead us to conclude that it is challenging to distinguish the MFR from the ambient magnetic field using any quantity based on common magnetic nonpotentiality measures.
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A New Magnetic Parameter of Active Regions Distinguishing Large Eruptive and Confined Solar Flares
Abstract With the aim of investigating how the magnetic field in solar active regions (ARs) controls flare activity, i.e., whether a confined or eruptive flare occurs, we analyze 106 flares of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite class ≥M1.0 during 2010–2019. We calculate mean characteristic twist parameters α FPIL within the “flaring polarity inversion line” region and α HFED within the area of high photospheric magnetic free energy density, which both provide measures of the nonpotentiality of the AR core region. Magnetic twist is thought to be related to the driving force of electric current-driven instabilities, such as the helical kink instability. We also calculate total unsigned magnetic flux (Φ AR ) of ARs producing the flare, which describes the strength of the background field confinement. By considering both the constraining effect of background magnetic fields and the magnetic nonpotentiality of ARs, we propose a new parameter α /Φ AR to measure the probability for a large flare to be associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME). We find that in about 90% of eruptive flares, α FPIL /Φ AR and α HFED /Φ AR are beyond critical values (2.2 × 10 −24 and 3.2 × 10 −24 Mm −1 Mx −1 ), whereas they are less than critical values in ∼80% of confined flares. This indicates that the new parameter α /Φ AR is well able to distinguish eruptive flares from confined flares. Our investigation suggests that the relative measure of magnetic nonpotentiality within the AR core over the restriction of the background field largely controls the capability of ARs to produce eruptive flares.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1848250
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10398294
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Astrophysical Journal Letters
- Volume:
- 926
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 2041-8205
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- L14
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract The origins of the various outbursts of hard X-rays from magnetars (highly magnetized neutron stars) are still unknown. We identify instabilities in relativistic magnetospheres that can explain a range of X-ray flare luminosities. Crustal surface motions can twist the magnetar magnetosphere by shifting the frozen-in footpoints of magnetic field lines in current-carrying flux bundles. Axisymmetric (2D) magnetospheres exhibit strong eruptive dynamics, i.e., catastrophic lateral instabilities triggered by a critical footpoint displacement of
ψ crit≳π . In contrast, our new three-dimensional (3D) twist models with finite surface extension capture important non-axisymmetric dynamics of twisted force-free flux bundles in dipolar magnetospheres. Besides the well-established global eruption resulting (as in 2D) from lateral instabilities, such 3D structures can develop helical, kink-like dynamics, and dissipate energy locally (confined eruptions). Up to 25% of the induced twist energy is dissipated and available to power X-ray flares in powerful global eruptions, with most of our models showing an energy release in the range of the most common X-ray outbursts, ≲1043erg. Such events occur when significant energy builds up while deeply buried in the dipole magnetosphere. Less energetic outbursts likely precede powerful flares, due to intermittent instabilities and confined eruptions of a continuously twisting flux tube. Upon reaching a critical state, global eruptions produce the necessary Poynting-flux-dominated outflows required by models prescribing the fast radio burst production in the magnetar wind—for example, via relativistic magnetic reconnection or shocks. -
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Abstract Solar flares are explosions on the Sun. They happen when energy stored in magnetic fields around solar active regions (ARs) is suddenly released. Solar flares and accompanied coronal mass ejections are sources of space weather, which negatively affects a variety of technologies at or near Earth, ranging from blocking high-frequency radio waves used for radio communication to degrading power grid operations. Monitoring and providing early and accurate prediction of solar flares is therefore crucial for preparedness and disaster risk management. In this article, we present a transformer-based framework, named SolarFlareNet, for predicting whether an AR would produce a
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null (Ed.)Aims. We study the relative helicity of active region (AR) NOAA 12673 during a ten-hour time interval centered around a preceding X2.2 flare (SOL2017-09-06T08:57) and also including an eruptive X9.3 flare that occurred three hours later (SOL2017-09-06T11:53). In particular, we aim for a reliable estimate of the normalized self-helicity of the current-carrying magnetic field, the so-called helicity ratio, | H J |/| H 𝒱 |, a promising candidate to quantity the eruptive potential of solar ARs. Methods. Using Solar Dynamics Observatory Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager vector magnetic field data as an input, we employ nonlinear force-free (NLFF) coronal magnetic field models using an optimization approach. The corresponding relative helicity, and related quantities, are computed using a finite-volume method. From multiple time series of NLFF models based on different choices of free model parameters, we are able to assess the spread of | H J |/| H 𝒱 |, and to estimate its uncertainty. Results. In comparison to earlier works, which identified the non-solenoidal contribution to the total magnetic energy, E div / E , as selection criterion regarding the required solenoidal quality of magnetic field models for subsequent relative helicity analysis, we propose to use in addition the non-solenoidal contribution to the free magnetic energy, | E mix |/ E J , s . As a recipe for a reliable estimate of the relative magnetic helicity (and related quantities), we recommend to employ multiple NLFF models based on different combinations of free model parameters, to retain only those that exhibit smallest values of both E div / E and | E mix |/ E J , s at a certain time instant, to subsequently compute mean estimates, and to use the spread of the individually contributing values as an indication for the uncertainty.more » « less
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Abstract Solar flares, especially the M- and X-class flares, are often associated with coronal mass ejections. They are the most important sources of space weather effects, which can severely impact the near-Earth environment. Thus it is essential to forecast flares (especially the M- and X-class ones) to mitigate their destructive and hazardous consequences. Here, we introduce several statistical and machine-learning approaches to the prediction of an active region’s (AR) flare index (FI) that quantifies the flare productivity of an AR by taking into account the number of different class flares within a certain time interval. Specifically, our sample includes 563 ARs that appeared on the solar disk from 2010 May to 2017 December. The 25 magnetic parameters, provided by the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, characterize coronal magnetic energy stored in ARs by proxy and are used as the predictors. We investigate the relationship between these SHARP parameters and the FI of ARs with a machine-learning algorithm (spline regression) and the resampling method (Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique for Regression with Gaussian Noise). Based on the established relationship, we are able to predict the value of FIs for a given AR within the next 1 day period. Compared with other four popular machine-learning algorithms, our methods improve the accuracy of FI prediction, especially for a large FI. In addition, we sort the importance of SHARP parameters by the Borda count method calculated from the ranks that are rendered by nine different machine-learning methods.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/ac5251
