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Each year, wildfires ravage the western U.S. and change the lives of millions of inhabitants. Situated in southern California, coastal Santa Barbara has witnessed devastating wildfires in the past decade, with nearly all ignitions started by humans. Therefore, estimating the risk imposed by unplanned ignitions in this fire-prone region will further increase resilience toward wildfires. Currently, a fire-risk map does not exist in this region. The main objective of this study is to provide a spatial analysis of regions at high risk of fast wildfire spread, particularly in the first two hours, considering varying scenarios of ignition locations and atmospheric conditions. To achieve this goal, multiple wildfire simulations were conducted using the FARSITE fire spread model with three ignition modeling methods and three wind scenarios. The first ignition method considers ignitions randomly distributed in 500 m buffers around previously observed ignition sites. Since these ignitions are mainly clustered around roads and trails, the second method considers a 50 m buffer around this built infrastructure, with ignition points randomly sampled from within this buffer. The third method assumes a Euclidean distance decay of ignition probability around roads and trails up to 1000 m, where the probability of selection linearly decreases further from the transportation paths. The ignition modeling methods were then employed in wildfire simulations with varying wind scenarios representing the climatological wind pattern and strong, downslope wind events. A large number of modeled ignitions were located near the major-exit highway running north–south (HWY 154), resulting in more simulated wildfires burning in that region. This could impact evacuation route planning and resource allocation under climatological wind conditions. The simulated fire areas were smaller, and the wildfires did not spread far from the ignition locations. In contrast, wildfires ignited during strong, northerly winds quickly spread into the wildland–urban interface (WUI) toward suburban and urban areas.
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Combining community observations and remote sensing to examine the effects of roads on wildfires in the East Siberian boreal forest
The paper is aimed at assessing the associations between the road networks geography and dynamics of wildfire events in the East Siberian boreal forest. We examined the relationship between the function of roads, their use, and management and the wildfire ignition, propagation, and termination during the catastrophic fire season of 2016 in the Irkutsk Region of Russia. Document analysis and interviews were utilized to identify main forest users and road infrastructure functional types and examine wildfire management practices. We combined community observations and satellite remotely sensed data to assess relationships between the location, extent, and timing of wildfires and different types of roads as fire sources, barriers, and suppression access points. Our study confirms a strong spatial relationship between the wildfire ignition points and roads differentiated by their types with the highest probability of fire ignition near forestry roads and the lowest near subsistence roads. Roads also play an important role in wildfire suppression, working as both physical barriers and access points for firefighters. Our research illustrates the importance of local and Indigenous observations along the roads for monitoring and understanding wildfires, including “zombie fires”. It also has practical implications for fire management collectively developed by authorities and local communities.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1748092
- PAR ID:
- 10399002
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Arctic Science
- ISSN:
- 2368-7460
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Background Near-term forecasts of fire danger based on predicted surface weather and fuel dryness are widely used to support the decisions of wildfire managers. The incorporation of synoptic-scale upper-air patterns into predictive models may provide additional value in operational forecasting. Aims In this study, we assess the impact of synoptic-scale upper-air patterns on the occurrence of large wildfires and widespread fire outbreaks in the US Pacific Northwest. Additionally, we examine how discrete upper-air map types can augment subregional models of wildfire risk. Methods We assess the statistical relationship between synoptic map types, surface weather and wildfire occurrence. Additionally, we compare subregional fire danger models to identify the predictive value contributed by upper-air map types. Key results We find that these map types explain variation in wildfire occurrence not captured by fire danger indices based on surface weather alone, with specific map types associated with significantly higher expected daily ignition counts in half of the subregions. Conclusions We observe that incorporating upper-air map types enhances the explanatory power of subregional fire danger models. Implications Our approach provides value to operational wildfire management and provides a template for how these methods may be implemented in other regions.more » « less
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Abstract Past studies reported a drastic growth in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), the location where man‐made structures meet or overlap wildland vegetation. Fighting fire is difficult in the WUI due to the combination of wildland and structural fuels, and therefore, WUI areas are characterized by frequent damage and loss of structures from wildfires. Recent wildland fire policy has targeted fire prevention, evacuation planning, fuel treatment, and home hardening in WUI areas. Therefore, it is important to understand the occurrence of wildfire events relative to the location of the WUI. In this work, we have reported the occurrences of wildfires with respect to the WUI and quantified how much of the WUI is on complex topography in California, which intensifies fire behavior and complicates fire suppression. We have additionally analyzed the relative importance of WUI‐related parameters, such as housing density, vegetation density, and distance to wildfires, as well as topographic factors, such as slope, elevation, aspect, and surface roughness, on the occurrence of large and small wildfires and the burned area of large wildfires near the WUI. We found that a very small percentage of wildfire ignition points and large wildfire‐burned areas (>400 ha or 1000 acres) were located in the WUI areas. A small percentage of large wildfires were encountered in WUI (3%), and the WUI area accounted for only 4% of the area burned, which increased to 5% and 56%, respectively, outside WUI (5‐km buffer from WUI). Similarly, 66% of fires ignited outside WUI, whereas only 3.6% ignited within WUI. Results from this study have implications for fuel management and infrastructure hardening, as well as for fire suppression and community response.more » « less
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null (Ed.)We review science-based adaptation strategies for western North American (wNA) forests that include restoring active fire regimes and fostering resilient structure and composition of forested landscapes. As part of the review, we address common questions associated with climate adaptation and realignment treatments that run counter to a broad consensus in the literature. These include: (1) Are the effects of fire exclusion overstated? If so, are treatments unwarranted and even counterproductive? (2) Is forest thinning alone sufficient to mitigate wildfire hazard? (3) Can forest thinning and prescribed burning solve the problem? (4) Should active forest management, including forest thinning, be concentrated in the wildland urban interface (WUI)? (5) Can wildfires on their own do the work of fuel treatments? (6) Is the primary objective of fuel reduction treatments to assist in future firefighting response and containment? (7) Do fuel treatments work under extreme fire weather? (8) Is the scale of the problem too great – can we ever catch up? (9) Will planting more trees mitigate climate change in wNA forests? and (10) Is post-fire management needed or even ecologically justified? Based on our review of the scientific evidence, a range of proactive management actions are justified and necessary to keep pace with changing climatic and wildfire regimes and declining forest successional heterogeneity after severe wildfires. Science-based adaptation options include the use of managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and coupled mechanical thinning and prescribed burning as is consistent with land management allocations and forest conditions. Although some current models of fire management in wNA are averse to short-term risks and uncertainties, the long-term environmental, social, and cultural consequences of wildfire management primarily grounded in fire suppression are well documented, highlighting an urgency to invest in intentional forest management and restoration of active fire regimes.more » « less
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Background Accurate simulation of wildfires can benefit pre-ignition mitigation and preparedness, and post-ignition emergency response management. Aims We evaluated the performance of Weather Research and Forecast-Fire (WRF-Fire), a coupled fire-atmosphere wildland fire simulation platform, in simulating a large historic fire (2018 Camp Fire). Methods A baseline model based on a setup typically used for WRF-Fire operational applications is utilised to simulate Camp Fire. Simulation results are compared to high-temporal-resolution fire perimeters derived from NEXRAD observations. The sensitivity of the model to a series of modelling parameters and assumptions governing the simulated wind field are then investigated. Results of WRF-Fire for Camp Fire are compared to FARSITE. Key results Baseline case shows non-negligible discrepancies between the simulated fire and the observations on rate of spread (ROS) and spread direction. Sensitivity analysis results show that refining the atmospheric grid of Camp Fire’s complex terrain improves fire prediction capabilities. Conclusions Sensitivity studies show the importance of refined atmosphere modelling for wildland fire simulation using WRF-Fire in complex terrains. Compared to FARSITE, WRF-Fire agrees better with the observations in terms of fire propagation rate and direction. Implications The findings suggest the need for further investigation of other possible sources of wildfire modelling uncertainties and errors.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2021-0042
