Title: Submesoscale Effects on Changes to Export Production Under Global Warming
Abstract We examine the effects of the submesoscale in mediating the response to projected warming of phytoplankton new production and export using idealized biogeochemical tracers in a high‐resolution regional model of the Porcupine Abyssal Plain region of the North Atlantic. We quantify submesoscale effects by comparing our control run to an integration in which submesoscale motions have been suppressed using increased viscosity. Annual new production is slightly reduced by submesoscale motions in a climate representative of the early 21st‐century and slightly increased by submesoscale motions in a climate representative of the late 21st‐century. The warmer climate at the end of the 21st century reduces resolved submesoscale activity by a factor of 2–3. Resolving the submesoscale, however, does not strongly impact the projected reduction in annual production under representative warming. Organic carbon export from the surface ocean includes both direct sinking of detritus (the biological gravitational pump) and advective transport mediated pathways; the sinking component is larger than advectively mediated vertical transport by up to an order of magnitude across a wide range of imposed sinking rates. The submesoscales are responsible for most of the advective carbon export, however, which is thus largely reduced in a warmer climate. In summary, our results demonstrate that resolving more of the submesoscale has a modest effect on present‐day new production, a small effect on simulated reductions in new production under global warming, and a large effect on advectively mediated export fluxes. more »« less
Brett, Genevieve Jay; Whitt, Daniel B.; Long, Matthew C.; Bryan, Frank; Feloy, Kate; Richards, Kelvin J.
(, Biogeosciences)
null
(Ed.)
Abstract. While there is agreement that global warming over the 21st century is likely to influence the biological pump, Earth system models (ESMs) display significant divergence in their projections of future new production. This paper quantifies and interprets the sensitivity of projected changes in new production in an idealized global ocean biogeochemistry model. The model includes two tracers that explicitly represent nutrient transport, light- and nutrient-limited nutrient uptake by the ecosystem (new production), and export via sinking organic particles. Globally, new production declines with warming due to reduced surface nutrient availability, as expected. However, the magnitude, seasonality, and underlying dynamics of the nutrient uptake are sensitive to the light and nutrient dependencies of uptake, which we summarize in terms of a single biological timescale that is a linear combination of the partial derivatives of production with respect to light and nutrients. Although the relationships are nonlinear, this biological timescale is correlated with several measures of biogeochemical function: shorter timescales are associated with greater global annual new production and higher nutrient utilization. Shorter timescales are also associated with greater declines in global new production in a warmer climate and greater sensitivity to changes in nutrients than light. Future work is needed to characterize more complex ocean biogeochemical models in terms of similar timescale generalities to examine their climate change implications.
Crichton, Katherine A.; Wilson, Jamie D.; Ridgwell, Andy; Pearson, Paul N.
(, Geoscientific Model Development)
null
(Ed.)
Abstract. Temperature is a master parameter in the marine carbon cycle, exerting a critical control on the rate of biological transformation of a variety of solid and dissolved reactants and substrates. Although in the construction of numerical models of marine carbon cycling, temperature has been long recognised as a key parameter in the production and export of organic matter at the ocean surface, its role in the ocean interior is much less frequently accounted for. There, bacteria (primarily) transform sinking particulate organic matter (POM) into its dissolved constituents and consume dissolved oxygen (and/or other electron acceptors such as sulfate). The nutrients and carbon thereby released then become available for transport back to the surface, influencing biological productivity and atmospheric pCO2, respectively. Given the substantial changes in ocean temperature occurring in the past, as well as in light of current anthropogenic warming, appropriately accounting for the role of temperature in marine carbon cycling may be critical to correctly projecting changes in ocean deoxygenation and the strength of feedbacks on atmosphericpCO2. Here we extend and calibrate a temperature-dependent representation ofmarine carbon cycling in the cGENIE.muffin Earth system model, intended forboth past and future climate applications. In this, we combine atemperature-dependent remineralisation scheme for sinking organic matterwith a biological export production scheme that also includes a dependenceon ambient seawater temperature. Via a parameter ensemble, we jointlycalibrate the two parameterisations by statistically contrasting model-projected fields of nutrients, oxygen, and the stable carbon isotopicsignature (δ13C) of dissolved inorganic carbon in the oceanwith modern observations. We additionally explore the role of temperature inthe creation and recycling of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and hence itsimpact on global carbon cycle dynamics. We find that for the present day, the temperature-dependent version showsa fit to the data that is as good as or better than the existing tuned non-temperature-dependent version of the cGENIE.muffin. The main impact ofaccounting for temperature-dependent remineralisation of POM is in drivinghigher rates of remineralisation in warmer waters, in turn driving a morerapid return of nutrients to the surface and thereby stimulating organicmatter production. As a result, more POM is exported below 80 m but onaverage reaches shallower depths in middle- and low-latitude warmer waterscompared to the standard model. Conversely, at higher latitudes, colderwater temperature reduces the rate of nutrient resupply to the surface andPOM reaches greater depth on average as a result of slower subsurface ratesof remineralisation. Further adding temperature-dependent DOM processeschanges this overall picture only a little, with a slight weakening ofexport production at higher latitudes. As an illustrative application of the new model configuration andcalibration, we take the example of historical warming and briefly assessthe implications for global carbon cycling of accounting for a more completeset of temperature-dependent processes in the ocean. We find that betweenthe pre-industrial era (ca. 1700) and the present (year 2010), in response to asimulated air temperature increase of 0.9 ∘C and an associatedprojected mean ocean warming of 0.12 ∘C (0.6 ∘C insurface waters and 0.02 ∘C in deep waters), a reduction inparticulate organic carbon (POC) export at 80 m of just 0.3 % occurs (or 0.7 % including a temperature-dependent DOM response). However, due to this increased recycling nearer the surface, the efficiency of the transfer of carbon away from the surface (at 80 m) to the deep ocean (at 1040 m) is reduced by 5 %. In contrast, with no assumed temperature-dependent processes impacting production or remineralisation of either POM or DOM, global POC export at 80 m falls by 2.9 % between the pre-industrial era and the present day as a consequence of ocean stratification and reduced nutrient resupply to the surface. Our analysis suggests that increased temperature-dependent nutrient recycling in the upper ocean has offset much of the stratification-induced restriction in its physical transport.
Krogh, Sebastian A.; Scaff, Lucia; Kirchner, James W.; Gordon, Beatrice; Sterle, Gary; Harpold, Adrian
(, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences)
Abstract. Climate warming will cause mountain snowpacks to melt earlier, reducing summer streamflow and threatening water supplies and ecosystems. Quantifying how sensitive streamflow timing is to climate change and where it is most sensitive remain key questions. Physically based hydrological models are often used for this purpose; however, they have embedded assumptions that translate into uncertain hydrological projections that need to be quantified and constrained to provide reliable inferences. The purpose of this study is to evaluate differences in projected end-of-century changes to streamflow timing between a new empirical model based on diel (daily) streamflow cycles and regional land surface simulations across the mountainous western USA. We develop an observational technique for detecting streamflow responses to snowmelt using diel cycles of incoming solar radiation and streamflow to detect when snowmelt occurs. We measure the date of the 20th percentile of snowmelt days (DOS20) across 31 western USA watersheds affected by snow, as a proxy for the beginning of snowmelt-initiated streamflow. Historic DOS20 varies from mid-January to late May among our sites, with warmer basins having earlier snowmelt-mediated streamflow. Mean annual DOS20 strongly correlates with the dates of 25 % and 50 % annual streamflow volume (DOQ25 and DOQ50, both R2=0.85), suggesting that a 1 d earlier DOS20 corresponds with a 1 d earlier DOQ25 and 0.7 d earlier DOQ50. Empirical projections of future DOS20 based on a stepwise multiple linear regression across sites and years under the RCP8.5 scenario for the late 21st century show that DOS20 will occur on average 11±4 d earlier per 1 ∘C of warming. However, DOS20 in colder watersheds (mean November–February air temperature, TNDJF<-8 ∘C) is on average 70 % more sensitive to climate change than in warmer watersheds (TNDJF>0 ∘C). Moreover, empirical projections of DOQ25 and DOQ50 based on DOS20 are about four and two times more sensitive to climate change, respectively, than those simulated by a state-of-the-art land surface model (NoahMP-WRF) under the same scenario. Given the importance of changes in streamflow timing for water resources, and the significant discrepancies found in projected streamflow sensitivity, snowmelt detection methods such as DOS20 based on diel streamflow cycles may help to constrain model parameters, improve hydrological predictions, and inform process understanding.
Kim, In-Won; Timmermann, Axel; Kim, Ji-Eun; Rodgers, Keith B; Lee, Sun-Seon; Lee, Hanna; Wieder, William R
(, Nature Communications)
Abstract Unabated 21st-century climate change will accelerate Arctic-Subarctic permafrost thaw which can intensify microbial degradation of carbon-rich soils, methane emissions, and global warming. The impact of permafrost thaw on future Arctic-Subarctic wildfires and the associated release of greenhouse gases and aerosols is less well understood. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of the effect of future permafrost thaw on land surface processes in the Arctic-Subarctic region using the CESM2 large ensemble forced by the SSP3-7.0 greenhouse gas emission scenario. Analyzing 50 greenhouse warming simulations, which capture the coupling between permafrost, hydrology, and atmosphere, we find that projected rapid permafrost thaw leads to massive soil drying, surface warming, and reduction of relative humidity over the Arctic-Subarctic region. These combined processes lead to nonlinear late-21st-century regime shifts in the coupled soil-hydrology system and rapid intensification of wildfires in western Siberia and Canada.
Stukel, Michael R; Biard, Tristan; Décima, Moira; Fender, Christian K; Kehinde, Opeyemi; Kelly, Thomas B; Kranz, Sven A; Laget, Manon; Landry, Michael R; Yingling, Natalia
(, bioRxiv)
Abstract The eastern Indian Ocean is substantially under sampled with respect to the biological carbon pump – the suite of processes that transport the carbon fixed by phytoplankton into the deeper ocean. Using sediment traps and other ecosystem measurements, we quantified sinking organic matter flux and investigated the characteristics of sinking particles in waters overlying the Argo Abyssal Plain directly downstream of the Indonesian Throughflow off northwest Australia. Carbon export from the euphotic zone averaged 7.0 mmol C m-2d-1, which equated to an average export efficiency (export / net primary production) of 0.17. Sinking particle flux within the euphotic zone (beneath the mixed layer, but above the deep chlorophyll maximum) averaged slightly higher than flux at the base of the euphotic zone, suggesting that the deep euphotic zone was a depth stratum of net particle remineralization. Carbon flux attenuation continued into the twilight zone with a transfer efficiency (export at euphotic depth + 100m / export at euphotic depth) of 0.62 and an average Martin’sb-value of 1.1. Within the euphotic zone, fresh phytoplankton (chlorophyll associated with sinking particles, possibly contained within appendicularian houses) were an important component of sinking particles, but beneath the euphotic zone the fecal pellets of herbivorous zooplankton (phaeopigments) were more important. Changes in carbon and nitrogen isotopic composition with depth further reflected remineralization processes occurring as particles sank. We show similarities with biological carbon pump functioning in a similar semi-enclosed oligotrophic marginal sea, the Gulf of Mexico, including net remineralization across the deep chlorophyll maximum. Submitted to: Deep-sea Research II HighlightsDespite low productivity, export efficiency was 17% of primary productionFlux attenuation beneath the euphotic zone (EZ) was low for a tropical regionSinking particle flux from the upper to lower EZ exceeded export from lower EZThe deep EZ was a stratum of net particle remineralization (and net heterotrophy)
Brett, Genevieve Jay, Whitt, Daniel B., Long, Matthew C., Bryan, Frank O., Feloy, Kate, and Richards, Kelvin J. Submesoscale Effects on Changes to Export Production Under Global Warming. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 37.3 Web. doi:10.1029/2022GB007619.
Brett, Genevieve Jay, Whitt, Daniel B., Long, Matthew C., Bryan, Frank O., Feloy, Kate, & Richards, Kelvin J. Submesoscale Effects on Changes to Export Production Under Global Warming. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 37 (3). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GB007619
Brett, Genevieve Jay, Whitt, Daniel B., Long, Matthew C., Bryan, Frank O., Feloy, Kate, and Richards, Kelvin J.
"Submesoscale Effects on Changes to Export Production Under Global Warming". Global Biogeochemical Cycles 37 (3). Country unknown/Code not available: DOI PREFIX: 10.1029. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GB007619.https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10400083.
@article{osti_10400083,
place = {Country unknown/Code not available},
title = {Submesoscale Effects on Changes to Export Production Under Global Warming},
url = {https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10400083},
DOI = {10.1029/2022GB007619},
abstractNote = {Abstract We examine the effects of the submesoscale in mediating the response to projected warming of phytoplankton new production and export using idealized biogeochemical tracers in a high‐resolution regional model of the Porcupine Abyssal Plain region of the North Atlantic. We quantify submesoscale effects by comparing our control run to an integration in which submesoscale motions have been suppressed using increased viscosity. Annual new production is slightly reduced by submesoscale motions in a climate representative of the early 21st‐century and slightly increased by submesoscale motions in a climate representative of the late 21st‐century. The warmer climate at the end of the 21st century reduces resolved submesoscale activity by a factor of 2–3. Resolving the submesoscale, however, does not strongly impact the projected reduction in annual production under representative warming. Organic carbon export from the surface ocean includes both direct sinking of detritus (the biological gravitational pump) and advective transport mediated pathways; the sinking component is larger than advectively mediated vertical transport by up to an order of magnitude across a wide range of imposed sinking rates. The submesoscales are responsible for most of the advective carbon export, however, which is thus largely reduced in a warmer climate. In summary, our results demonstrate that resolving more of the submesoscale has a modest effect on present‐day new production, a small effect on simulated reductions in new production under global warming, and a large effect on advectively mediated export fluxes.},
journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
volume = {37},
number = {3},
publisher = {DOI PREFIX: 10.1029},
author = {Brett, Genevieve Jay and Whitt, Daniel B. and Long, Matthew C. and Bryan, Frank O. and Feloy, Kate and Richards, Kelvin J.},
}
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