Anthropogenic activities have altered historical disturbance regimes, and understanding the mechanisms by which these shifting perturbations interact is essential to predicting where they may erode ecosystem resilience. Emerging infectious plant diseases, caused by human translocation of nonnative pathogens, can generate ecologically damaging forms of novel biotic disturbance. Further, abiotic disturbances, such as wildfire, may influence the severity and extent of disease‐related perturbations via their effects on the occurrence of hosts, pathogens and microclimates; however, these interactions have rarely been examined. The disease ‘sudden oak death’ (SOD), associated with the introduced pathogen Past wildfire altered disease dynamics and reduced SOD‐related mortality, indicating a negative interaction between these abiotic and biotic disturbances. Frequently burned forests were less likely to be invaded by
Human footprint is associated with shifts in the assemblages of major vector-borne diseases
Abstract Predicting how increasing intensity of human–environment interactions affects pathogen transmission is essential to anticipate changing disease risks and identify appropriate mitigation strategies. Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are highly responsive to environmental changes, but such responses are notoriously difficult to isolate because pathogen transmission depends on a suite of ecological and social responses in vectors and hosts that may differ across species. Here we use the emerging tools of cumulative pressure mapping and machine learning to better understand how the occurrence of six medically important VBDs, differing in ecology from sylvatic to urban, respond to multidimensional effects of human pressure. We find that not only is human footprint—an index of human pressure, incorporating built environments, energy and transportation infrastructure, agricultural lands and human population density—an important predictor of VBD occurrence, but there are clear thresholds governing the occurrence of different VBDs. Across a spectrum of human pressure, diseases associated with lower human pressure, including malaria, cutaneous leishmaniasis and visceral leishmaniasis, give way to diseases associated with high human pressure, such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika. These heterogeneous responses of VBDs to human pressure highlight thresholds of land-use transitions that may lead to abrupt shifts in infectious disease burdens and public health needs.
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- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10402305
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Sustainability
- ISSN:
- 2398-9629
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01080-1
