The retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is conventionally attributed to increased ocean melting of ice shelves, potentially enhanced by internal instability from grounding lines near retrograde bed slopes. Ocean melting is enhanced by increased intrusion of modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) into ice shelf cavities. Upwelling from the release of subglacial meltwater can enhance mCDW’s melting ability, though its efficacy is not well understood and is not represented in current ice sheet loss projections. Here we quantify this process during an exceptional subglacial lake drainage event under Thwaites Glacier. We found that the buoyant plume from the subglacial discharge temporarily doubled the rate of ocean melting under Thwaites, thinning the ice shelf. These events likely contributed to Thwaites’ rapid thinning and grounding line retreat during that period. However, simulations and observations indicate that a steady subglacial water release would more efficiently enhance basal melt rates at Thwaites, with melt rate increasing like the square root of the subglacial discharge. Thus, it remains unclear whether increased subglacial flooding events provide a stabilizing influence on West Antarctic ice loss by reducing the impact of subglacial water on ocean melting, or a destabilizing influence by triggering rapid changes at the grounding zone.
Projections of global sea level depend sensitively on whether Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, will continue to lose ice rapidly. Prior studies have focused primarily on understanding the evolution of ice velocity and whether the reverse‐sloping bed at Thwaites Glacier could drive irreversible retreat. However, the overall ice flux to the ocean and the possibility of irreversible retreat depend not only on the ice speed but also on the width of the main ice trunk. Here, we complement prior work by focusing specifically on understanding whether the lateral boundaries of the main ice trunk, termed shear margins, might migrate over time. We hypothesize that the shear margins at Thwaites Glacier will migrate on a decadal timescale in response to continued ice thinning and surface steepening. We test this hypothesis by developing a depth‐averaged, thermomechanical free‐boundary model that captures the complex topography underneath the glacier and solves for both the ice velocity and for the position of the shear margins. We find that both shear margins are prone to migration in response to ice thinning with basal strength and surface slope steepening determining their relative motion. We construct four end‐member cases of basal strength that represent different physical properties governing friction at the glacier bed and present two cases of ice thinning to contrast the effects of surface steepening and ice thinning. We test our model by hindcasting historic data and discuss how data from ongoing field campaigns could further be used to test our model.
more » « less- PAR ID:
- 10402716
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
- Volume:
- 128
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2169-9003
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Thwaites Glacier (TG) plays an important role in future sea-level rise (SLR) contribution from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent observations show that TG is losing mass, and its grounding zone is retreating. Previous modeling has produced a wide range of results concerning whether, when, and how rapidly further retreat will occur under continued warming. These differences arise at least in part from ill-constrained processes, including friction from the bed, and future atmosphere and ocean forcing affecting ice-shelf and grounding-zone buttressing. Here, we apply the Ice Sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) with a range of specifications of basal sliding behavior in response to varying ocean forcing. We find that basin-wide bed character strongly affects TG's response to sub-shelf melt by modulating how changes in driving stress are balanced by the bed as the glacier responds to external forcing. Resulting differences in dynamic thinning patterns alter modeled grounding-line retreat across Thwaites' catchment, affecting both modeled rates and magnitudes of SLR contribution from this critical sector of the ice sheet. Bed character introduces large uncertainties in projections of TG under equal external forcing, pointing to this as a crucial constraint needed in predictive models of West Antarctica.
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Abstract Thwaites Glacier is one of the fastest-changing ice–ocean systems in Antarctica 1–3 . Much of the ice sheet within the catchment of Thwaites Glacier is grounded below sea level on bedrock that deepens inland 4 , making it susceptible to rapid and irreversible ice loss that could raise the global sea level by more than half a metre 2,3,5 . The rate and extent of ice loss, and whether it proceeds irreversibly, are set by the ocean conditions and basal melting within the grounding-zone region where Thwaites Glacier first goes afloat 3,6 , both of which are largely unknown. Here we show—using observations from a hot-water-drilled access hole—that the grounding zone of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) is characterized by a warm and highly stable water column with temperatures substantially higher than the in situ freezing point. Despite these warm conditions, low current speeds and strong density stratification in the ice–ocean boundary layer actively restrict the vertical mixing of heat towards the ice base 7,8 , resulting in strongly suppressed basal melting. Our results demonstrate that the canonical model of ice-shelf basal melting used to generate sea-level projections cannot reproduce observed melt rates beneath this critically important glacier, and that rapid and possibly unstable grounding-line retreat may be associated with relatively modest basal melt rates.more » « less
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Abstract Recent acceleration and thinning of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, motivates investigation of the controls upon, and stability of, its present ice-flow pattern. Its eastern shear margin separates Thwaites Glacier from slower-flowing ice and the southern tributaries of Pine Island Glacier. Troughs in Thwaites Glacier’s bed topography bound nearly all of its tributaries, except along this eastern shear margin, which has no clear relationship with regional bed topography along most of its length. Here we use airborne ice-penetrating radar data from the Airborne Geophysical Survey of the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Antarctica (AGASEA) to investigate the nature of the bed across this margin. Radar data reveal slightly higher and rougher bed topography on the slower-flowing side of the margin, along with lower bed reflectivity. However, the change in bed reflectivity across the margin is partially explained by a change in bed roughness. From these observations, we infer that the position of the eastern shear margin is not strongly controlled by local bed topography or other bed properties. Given the potential for future increases in ice flux farther downstream, the eastern shear margin may be vulnerable to migration. However, there is no evidence that this margin is migrating presently, despite ongoing changes farther downstream.more » « less
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null (Ed.)Abstract. A system of subglacial lakes drained on Thwaites Glacier from 2012–2014. To improve coverage for subsequent drainage events, we extended theelevation and ice-velocity time series on Thwaites Glacier through austral winter 2019. These new observations document a second drainage cycle in2017/18 and identified two new lake systems located in the western tributaries of Thwaites and Haynes glaciers. In situ and satellite velocityobservations show temporary < 3 % speed fluctuations associated with lake drainages. In agreement with previous studies, these observationssuggest that active subglacial hydrology has little influence on thinning and retreat of Thwaites Glacier on decadal to centennial timescales.more » « less
