An official website of the United States government
Abstract China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter in 2022, aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The power sector will play a major role in this decarbonization process due to its current reliance on coal. Prior studies have quantified air quality co-benefits from decarbonization or investigated pathways to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector. However, few have jointly assessed the potential impacts of accelerating decarbonization on electric power systems and public health. Additionally, most analyses have treated air quality improvements as co-benefits of decarbonization, rather than a target during decarbonization. Here, we explore future energy technology pathways in China under accelerated decarbonization scenarios with a power system planning model that integrates carbon, pollutant, and health impacts. We integrate the health effects of power plant emissions into the power system decision-making process, quantifying the public health impacts of decarbonization under each scenario. We find that compared with a reference decarbonization pathway, a stricter cap (20% lower emissions than the reference pathway in each period) on carbon emissions would yield significant co-benefits to public health, leading to a 22% reduction in power sector health impacts. Although extra capital investment is required to achieve this low emission target, the value of climate and health benefits would exceed the additional costs, leading to $824 billion net benefits from 2021 to 2050. Another accelerated decarbonization pathway that achieves zero emissions five years earlier than the reference case would result in lower net benefits due to higher capital costs during earlier decarbonization periods. Treating air pollution impacts as a target in decarbonization can further mitigate both CO2emissions and negative health effects. Alternative low-cost solutions also show that small variations in system costs can result in significantly different future energy portfolios, suggesting that diverse decarbonization pathways are viable.
more »
« less
U.S. West Coast droughts and heat waves exacerbate pollution inequality and can evade emission control policies
Abstract Droughts reduce hydropower production and heatwaves increase electricity demand, forcing power system operators to rely more on fossil fuel power plants. However, less is known about how droughts and heat waves impact the county level distribution of health damages from power plant emissions. Using California as a case study, we simulate emissions from power plants under a 500-year synthetic weather ensemble. We find that human health damages are highest in hot, dry years. Counties with a majority of people of color and counties with high pollution burden (which are somewhat overlapping) are disproportionately impacted by increased emissions from power plants during droughts and heat waves. Taxing power plant operations based on each plant’s contribution to health damages significantly reduces average exposure. However, emissions taxes do not reduce air pollution damages on the worst polluting days, because supply scarcity (caused by severe heat waves) forces system operators to use every power plant available to avoid causing a blackout.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2009726
- PAR ID:
- 10402832
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Vehicle electrification is a common climate change mitigation strategy, with policymakers invoking co‐beneficial reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) and air pollutant emissions. However, while previous studies of U.S. electric vehicle (EV) adoption consistently predict CO2mitigation benefits, air quality outcomes are equivocal and depend on policies assessed and experimental parameters. We analyze climate and health co‐benefits and trade‐offs of six U.S. EV adoption scenarios: 25% or 75% replacement of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, each under three different EV‐charging energy generation scenarios. We transfer emissions from tailpipe to power generation plant, simulate interactions of atmospheric chemistry and meteorology using the GFDL‐AM4 chemistry climate model, and assess health consequences and uncertainties using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Benefits Mapping Analysis Program Community Edition (BenMAP‐CE). We find that 25% U.S. EV adoption, with added energy demand sourced from the present‐day electric grid, annually results in a ~242 M ton reduction in CO2emissions, 437 deaths avoided due to PM2.5reductions (95% CI: 295, 578), and 98 deaths avoided due to lesser ozone formation (95% CI: 33, 162). Despite some regions experiencing adverse health outcomes, ~$16.8B in damages avoided are predicted. Peak CO2reductions and health benefits occur with 75% EV adoption and increased emission‐free energy sources (~$70B in damages avoided). When charging‐electricity from aggressive EV adoption is combustion‐only, adverse health outcomes increase substantially, highlighting the importance of low‐to‐zero emission power generation for greater realization of health co‐benefits. Our results provide a more nuanced understanding of the transportation sector's climate change mitigation‐health impact relationship.more » « less
-
Nuclear reactor safety is unique in that even after an incident is identified and the reactor shut down, the possibility of damage to people and environment does not stop: there is a long tail to the incident due to decay heat and potential for radiation leakage, which must also be contained properly, as exemplified in Fukushima where most radiation releases happened after initial earthquake and plant shut-down. Nuclear reactors generate close to 20% of the energy required by our nation. There is increasing interest in nuclear power as a low emissions alternative to fossil fuel-based power. Investments in the next generation of nuclear power plants include many nuclear startups such as NuScale and high-profile investments by Bill Gates’ Terra Power. Nuclear reactor operators are critical personnel who operate nuclear reactors, monitor the health of the operation, and are the first line of defense in case of an incident. Though the Nuclear Regulatory Commission creates and maintains standards and procedures for nuclear safety, their programmatic mandate involves are focused on existing technology, in the form of commercial nuclear power plants and other uses of nuclear materials through licensing, inspection and enforcement activities. This report summarizes the collected thoughts and insights from a diverse working group on the intersection of next generation technology with the training of future nuclear reactor operators.more » « less
-
Biogenic isoprene emissions from herbaceous plants are generally lower than those from trees. However, our study finds widespread isoprene emission in herbaceous sedge plants, with a stronger temperature response surpassing current tree-derived models. We measured and compared isoprene emissions from sedges grown in different climatic zones, all showing an exponential temperature response with a Q10 range of 7.2 to 12, significantly higher than the Q10 of about 3 for other common isoprene emitters. The distinct temperature sensitivity of sedges makes them a hidden isoprene source, significant during heat waves but not easily detected in mild weather. For instance, isoprene emissions fromCarex praegraciliscan increase by 320% with a peak emission of over 100 nmol m−2s−1compared to preheat wave emissions. During heat waves, the peak isoprene emissions fromC. praegraciliscan match those fromLophostemon confertus, a commonly used street tree species which is considered the dominant urban isoprene source due to higher biomass and emission capacities. This surge in isoprene from globally distributed sedges, including those in urban landscapes, could contribute to peak ozone and aerosol pollutants during heat waves.more » « less
-
Abstract Rapidly growing cities along the Interstate‐85 corridor from Atlanta, GA, to Raleigh, NC, rely on small rivers for water supply and waste assimilation. These rivers share commonalities including water supply stress during droughts, seasonally low flows for wastewater dilution, increasing drought and precipitation extremes, downstream eutrophication issues, and high regional aquatic diversity. Further challenges include rapid growth; sprawl that exacerbates water quality and infrastructure issues; water infrastructure that spans numerous counties and municipalities; and large numbers of septic systems. Holistic multi‐jurisdiction cooperative water resource planning along with policy and infrastructure modifications is necessary to adapt to population growth and climate. We propose six actions to improve water infrastructure resilience: increase water‐use efficiency by municipal, industrial, agricultural, and thermoelectric power sectors; adopt indirect potable reuse or closed loop systems; allow for water sharing during droughts but regulate inter‐basin transfers to protect aquatic ecosystems; increase nutrient recovery and reduce discharges of carbon and nutrients in effluents; employ green infrastructure and better stormwater management to reduce nonpoint pollutant loadings and mitigate urban heat island effects; and apply the CRIDA framework to incorporate climate and hydrologic uncertainty into water planning.more » « less
