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Abstract Uncertainty arising from climate change poses a central challenge to the long‐term performance of many engineered water systems. Water supply infrastructure projects can leverage different types of flexibility, in planning, design, or operations, to adapt infrastructure systems in response to climate change over time. Both flexible planning and design enable future capacity expansion if‐and‐when needed, with flexible design proactively incorporating physical design changes that enable retrofits. All three forms of flexibility have not previously been analyzed together to explicitly assess their relative value in mitigating cost and water supply reliability risk. In this paper, we propose a new framework to evaluate combinations of flexible planning, design, and operations. We develop a nested stochastic dynamic optimization approach that jointly optimizes dam development and operating policies under dynamic climate uncertainty. We demonstrate this approach on a reservoir project near Mombasa, Kenya. Our results find that flexible operations have the greatest potential to reduce costs. Flexible design and flexible planning can amplify the value of flexible operations under higher discounting scenarios and when initial infrastructure capacities are undersized. This approach provides insight on the climate change and techno‐economic conditions under which flexible planning, design, and operations can be best leveraged individually or in combination to reduce climate change uncertainty risks in water supply infrastructure projects.
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Water supply, waste assimilation, and low‐flow issues facing the Southeast Piedmont Interstate‐85 urban archipelago
Abstract Rapidly growing cities along the Interstate‐85 corridor from Atlanta, GA, to Raleigh, NC, rely on small rivers for water supply and waste assimilation. These rivers share commonalities including water supply stress during droughts, seasonally low flows for wastewater dilution, increasing drought and precipitation extremes, downstream eutrophication issues, and high regional aquatic diversity. Further challenges include rapid growth; sprawl that exacerbates water quality and infrastructure issues; water infrastructure that spans numerous counties and municipalities; and large numbers of septic systems. Holistic multi‐jurisdiction cooperative water resource planning along with policy and infrastructure modifications is necessary to adapt to population growth and climate. We propose six actions to improve water infrastructure resilience: increase water‐use efficiency by municipal, industrial, agricultural, and thermoelectric power sectors; adopt indirect potable reuse or closed loop systems; allow for water sharing during droughts but regulate inter‐basin transfers to protect aquatic ecosystems; increase nutrient recovery and reduce discharges of carbon and nutrients in effluents; employ green infrastructure and better stormwater management to reduce nonpoint pollutant loadings and mitigate urban heat island effects; and apply the CRIDA framework to incorporate climate and hydrologic uncertainty into water planning.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2115293
- PAR ID:
- 10414617
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association
- Volume:
- 59
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 1093-474X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 1146-1161
- Size(s):
- p. 1146-1161
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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