Abstract The Amazon biome is being pushed by unsustainable economic drivers towards an ecological tipping point where restoration to its previous state may no longer be possible. This degradation is the result of self-reinforcing interactions between deforestation, climate change and fire. We assess the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts and trade-offs of scenarios representing movement towards an Amazon tipping point and strategies to avert one using the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform linked with spatial land use-land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEM + ESM). Our approach provides the first approximation of the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of a tipping point, and evidence to build the economic case for strategies to avert it. For the five Amazon focal countries, namely, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Bolivia and Ecuador, we find that a tipping point would create economic losses of US$256.6 billion in cumulative gross domestic product by 2050. Policies that would contribute to averting a tipping point, including strongly reducing deforestation, investing in intensifying agriculture in cleared lands, climate-adapted agriculture and improving fire management, would generate approximately US$339.3 billion in additional wealth and a return on investment of US$29.5 billion. Quantifying the costs, benefits and trade-offs of policies to avert a tipping point in a transparent and replicable manner can support the design of regional development strategies for the Amazon biome, build the business case for action and catalyze global cooperation and financing to enable policy implementation.
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Directing the wind: Techno-economic feasibility of green ammonia for farmers and community economic viability
There has been increasing interest in low-carbon technologies to reduce climate change impacts. However, careful assessments of their implications for the vibrancy of local economies are rare. This paper employs techno-economic analysis to assess the technical and economic feasibility of investment in one such technology: local green ammonia production and its contribution to the economic viability of the local economy. The analysis considers price projection and debt financing options, and alternative energy-to-ammonia technologies. The approach is broadly applicable and is illustrated here using a case study in which 248,188 MT of traditional ammonia are replaced with local wind energy-produced ammonia for farmers in Southwest Kansas, United States. Economic feasibility is defined as the ability to accrue enough discounted cash flow at the end of the turbines’ 25-year lifespan to enable their replacement. The alternative technologies are the traditional Haber-Bosch and the emerging solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC). The total plant capital cost amounted to $781.72 million while the plant operating costs were set at $100/MT with the energy supplied by the project’s energy system. The results show how economic feasibility sensitivity to technology and financing options are evaluated and communicated to scientists, policymakers, and farmers. The 6.5 MWh/MT wind energy-to-ammonia SOEC technology presented the best economic results under all price projections. The community’s investment yielded the highest return when debt was used to finance 50% of the capital investment. Returns exceeded the average annual S&P return of about 7% from 1957 to 2021. The work shows how consideration of technology efficiencies and creative financing strategies can contribute to the economic welfare of farmers and their communities even as they contributed to reducing crop production’s carbon footprint.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1856084
- PAR ID:
- 10403130
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Environmental Science
- Volume:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 2296-665X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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