The impact of global warming–induced intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) narrowing onto the higher-latitude circulation is examined in the GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 2.1 (AM2.1), run over zonally symmetric aquaplanet boundary conditions. A striking reconfiguration of the deep tropical precipitation from double-peaked, off-equatorial ascent to a single peak at the equator occurs under a globally uniform +4 K sea surface temperature (SST) perturbation. This response is found to be highly sensitive to the SST profile used to force the model. By making small (≤1 K) perturbations to the surface temperature in the deep tropics, varying control simulation precipitation patterns with both single and double ITCZs are generated. Across the climatologies, narrower regions of ascent correspond to more equatorward Hadley cell edges and eddy-driven jets. Under the global warming perturbation, the experiments in which there is narrowing of the ITCZ show significantly less expansion of the Hadley cell and somewhat less poleward shift of the eddy-driven jet than those without ITCZ narrowing. With a narrower ITCZ, the ascending air has larger zonal momentum, causing more westerly upper-tropospheric subtropical wind. In turn, this implies 1) the subtropical jet will become baroclinically unstable at a lower latitude and 2) the critical (zero wind) line will shift equatorward, allowing midlatitude eddies to propagate farther equatorward. Both of these mechanisms modify the Hadley cell edge position, and the latter affects the jet position.
The latitudinal precipitation distribution shows a secondary peak in midlatitudes and a minimum in the subtropics. This minimum is widely attributed to the descending branch of the Eulerian Hadley cell. This study however shows that the precipitation distribution aligns more closely with the transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) vertical motion. In Northern Hemisphere winter, maximum TEM descent (ascent) and precipitation minimum (maximum) are collocated at ~20°N (~40°N). The subtropical descent is mostly driven by the meridional flux of zonal momentum by large-scale eddies, while the midlatitude ascent is driven by the meridional flux of heat by the eddies. When the poleward eddy momentum flux is sufficiently strong, however, the secondary precipitation peak shifts to 60°N corresponding to the location of the TEM ascent driven by the eddy momentum flux. Moisture supply for the precipitation is aided by evaporation which is enhanced where the TEM descending branch brings down dry air from the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere. This picture is reminiscent of dry air intrusions in synoptic meteorology, suggesting that the descending branch may embody a zonal mean expression of dry air intrusions. Moist air rises following the TEM ascending branch, suggesting that the ascending branch may be interpreted as a zonal mean expression of warm conveyor belts. This study thus offers a large-scale dynamics perspective of the synoptic description of precipitation systems. The findings here also suggest that future changes in the eddy momentum flux, which is poorly understood, could play a pivotal role in determining the future precipitation distribution.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1948667
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10403158
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
- Volume:
- 6
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2397-3722
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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