skip to main content


Title: Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change
Abstract

The effect of anthropogenic climate change in the ocean is challenging to project because atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond differently to forcing. This study focuses on changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean heat content ($$\Delta$$ΔOHC), and the spatial pattern of ocean dynamic sea level ($$\Delta \zeta$$Δζ). We analyse experiments following the FAFMIP protocol, in which AOGCMs are forced at the ocean surface with standardised heat, freshwater and momentum flux perturbations, typical of those produced by doubling$$\hbox {CO}_{{2}}$$CO2. Using two new heat-flux-forced experiments, we find that the AMOC weakening is mainly caused by and linearly related to the North Atlantic heat flux perturbation, and further weakened by a positive coupled heat flux feedback. The quantitative relationships are model-dependent, but few models show significant AMOC change due to freshwater or momentum forcing, or to heat flux forcing outside the North Atlantic. AMOC decline causes warming at the South Atlantic-Southern Ocean interface. It does not strongly affect the global-mean vertical distribution of$$\Delta$$ΔOHC, which is dominated by the Southern Ocean. AMOC decline strongly affects$$\Delta \zeta$$Δζin the North Atlantic, with smaller effects in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. The ensemble-mean$$\Delta \zeta$$Δζand$$\Delta$$ΔOHC patterns are mostly attributable to the heat added by the flux perturbation, with smaller effects from ocean heat and salinity redistribution. The ensemble spread, on the other hand, is largely due to redistribution, with pronounced disagreement among the AOGCMs.

 
more » « less
NSF-PAR ID:
10405391
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Springer Science + Business Media
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Climate Dynamics
Volume:
60
Issue:
7-8
ISSN:
0930-7575
Page Range / eLocation ID:
p. 2003-2039
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    The sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature (Ta) to anthropogenic heat flux (QAH) is known to vary with space and time, but the key factors controlling such spatiotemporal variabilities remain elusive. To quantify the contributions of different physical processes to the magnitude and variability ofΔTa/ΔQAH(whereΔrepresents a change), we develop a forcing-feedback framework based on the energy budget of air within the urban canopy layer and apply it to diagnosingΔTa/ΔQAHsimulated by the Community Land Model Urban over the contiguous United States (CONUS). In summer, the medianΔTa/ΔQAHis around 0.01K W m21over the CONUS. Besides the direct effect ofQAHonTa, there are important feedbacks through changes in the surface temperature, the atmosphere–canopy air heat conductance (ca), and the surface–canopy air heat conductance. The positive and negative feedbacks nearly cancel each other out andΔTa/ΔQAHis mostly controlled by the direct effect in summer. In winter,ΔTa/ΔQAHbecomes stronger, with the median value increased by about 20% due to weakened negative feedback associated withca. The spatial and temporal (both seasonal and diurnal) variability ofΔTa/ΔQAHas well as the nonlinear response ofΔTatoΔQAHare strongly related to the variability ofca, highlighting the importance of correctly parameterizing convective heat transfer in urban canopy models.

     
    more » « less
  2. Abstract

    The azimuthal ($$\Delta \varphi $$Δφ) correlation distributions between heavy-flavor decay electrons and associated charged particles are measured in pp and p–Pb collisions at$$\sqrt{s_{\mathrm{{NN}}}} = 5.02$$sNN=5.02TeV. Results are reported for electrons with transverse momentum$$44<pT<16$$\textrm{GeV}/c$$GeV/c and pseudorapidity$$|\eta |<0.6$$|η|<0.6. The associated charged particles are selected with transverse momentum$$11<pT<7$$\textrm{GeV}/c$$GeV/c, and relative pseudorapidity separation with the leading electron$$|\Delta \eta | < 1$$|Δη|<1. The correlation measurements are performed to study and characterize the fragmentation and hadronization of heavy quarks. The correlation structures are fitted with a constant and two von Mises functions to obtain the baseline and the near- and away-side peaks, respectively. The results from p–Pb collisions are compared with those from pp collisions to study the effects of cold nuclear matter. In the measured trigger electron and associated particle kinematic regions, the two collision systems give consistent results. The$$\Delta \varphi $$Δφdistribution and the peak observables in pp and p–Pb collisions are compared with calculations from various Monte Carlo event generators.

     
    more » « less
  3. Abstract

    Thin film evaporation is a widely-used thermal management solution for micro/nano-devices with high energy densities. Local measurements of the evaporation rate at a liquid-vapor interface, however, are limited. We present a continuous profile of the evaporation heat transfer coefficient ($$h_{\text {evap}}$$hevap) in the submicron thin film region of a water meniscus obtained through local measurements interpreted by a machine learned surrogate of the physical system. Frequency domain thermoreflectance (FDTR), a non-contact laser-based method with micrometer lateral resolution, is used to induce and measure the meniscus evaporation. A neural network is then trained using finite element simulations to extract the$$h_{\text {evap}}$$hevapprofile from the FDTR data. For a substrate superheat of 20 K, the maximum$$h_{\text {evap}}$$hevapis$$1.0_{-0.3}^{+0.5}$$1.0-0.3+0.5 MW/$$\text {m}^2$$m2-K at a film thickness of$$15_{-3}^{+29}$$15-3+29 nm. This ultrahigh$$h_{\text {evap}}$$hevapvalue is two orders of magnitude larger than the heat transfer coefficient for single-phase forced convection or evaporation from a bulk liquid. Under the assumption of constant wall temperature, our profiles of$$h_{\text {evap}}$$hevapand meniscus thickness suggest that 62% of the heat transfer comes from the region lying 0.1–1 μm from the meniscus edge, whereas just 29% comes from the next 100 μm.

     
    more » « less
  4. Abstract

    We study the singular set in the thin obstacle problem for degenerate parabolic equations with weight$$|y|^a$$|y|afor$$a \in (-1,1)$$a(-1,1). Such problem arises as the local extension of the obstacle problem for the fractional heat operator$$(\partial _t - \Delta _x)^s$$(t-Δx)sfor$$s \in (0,1)$$s(0,1). Our main result establishes the complete structure and regularity of the singular set of the free boundary. To achieve it, we prove Almgren-Poon, Weiss, and Monneau type monotonicity formulas which generalize those for the case of the heat equation ($$a=0$$a=0).

     
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    The proximity of many strongly correlated superconductors to density-wave or nematic order has led to an extensive search for fingerprints of pairing mediated by dynamical quantum-critical (QC) fluctuations of the corresponding order parameter. Here we study anisotropics-wave superconductivity induced by anisotropic QC dynamical nematic fluctuations. We solve the non-linear gap equation for the pairing gap$$\Delta (\theta ,{\omega }_{m})$$Δ(θ,ωm)and show that its angular dependence strongly varies below$${T}_{{\rm{c}}}$$Tc. We show that this variation is a signature of QC pairing and comes about because there are multiples-wave pairing instabilities with closely spaced transition temperatures$${T}_{{\rm{c}},n}$$Tc,n. Taken alone, each instability would produce a gap$$\Delta (\theta ,{\omega }_{m})$$Δ(θ,ωm)that changes sign$$8n$$8ntimes along the Fermi surface. We show that the equilibrium gap$$\Delta (\theta ,{\omega }_{m})$$Δ(θ,ωm)is a superposition of multiple components that are nonlinearly induced below the actual$${T}_{{\rm{c}}}={T}_{{\rm{c}},0}$$Tc=Tc,0, and get resonantly enhanced at$$T={T}_{{\rm{c}},n}\ <\ {T}_{{\rm{c}}}$$T=Tc,n<Tc. This gives rise to strong temperature variation of the angular dependence of$$\Delta (\theta ,{\omega }_{m})$$Δ(θ,ωm). This variation progressively disappears away from a QC point.

     
    more » « less