The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain experiences high relative sea level rise, limited sediment supply, and high marsh edge erosion, leading to the substantial coastal wetland and stored soil organic matter (SOM) loss. The objective of this study was to understand the SOM accumulation rates over the past 1000 years related to the changes in the depositional environment in these highly eroding coastal wetlands. Soil cores (2 m) were collected from four sites in Barataria Basin, LA and analyzed for proportion of organic and mineral matter, total C, N, P, particle size, and stable isotopic composition (δ13C and δ15N), as well as14C and137Cs dating. The soil carbon stock in the 2 m depth (62.4 ± 2 kg m−2) was approximately 88% greater than the carbon stock in just the 1 m depth (33.1 ± 0.6 kg m−2) indicating a need for considering deeper soil profiles (up to 2 m) to estimate blue carbon stock in deltaic environments. The average vertical accretion rate for Barataria Basin was 8.1 ± 0.6 mm year−1over 50 years. The long‐term (1000‐year time scale) C accumulation rate (39 g C m−2year−1) was ∼14% of the short‐term accumulation rate (254 ± 19 g C m−2year−1). Wetlands in Barataria Basin started as fresh marsh and transitioned over time to intermediate to brackish. These marshes were able to maintain relative elevation through the accumulation of organic matter and mud despite high relative rates of sea‐level rise. However, the high rates of edge erosion may limit these marshes to continue to sequester atmospheric carbon under accelerating sea level in the absence of restoration efforts.
Mangrove trees are invading saltmarshes at subtropical ecotones globally, but the consequences of this vegetation shift for ecosystem sustainability remain unknown. Using the Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model (CWEM) to simulate vegetation survival and sediment accretion, we predict that black mangroves,
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10406070
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Volume:
- 11
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 2328-4277
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Rates of organic carbon (OC) burial in some coastal wetlands appear to be greater in recent years than they were in the past. Possible explanations include ongoing mineralization of older OC or the influence of an unaccounted‐for artifact of the methods used to measure burial rates. Alternatively, the trend may represent real acceleration in OC burial. We quantified OC burial rates of mangrove and coastal freshwater marshes in southwest Florida through a comparison of rates derived from210Pb,137Cs, and surface marker horizons. Age/depth profiles of lignin: OC were used to assess whether down‐core remineralization had depleted the OC pool relative to lignin, and lignin phenols were used to quantify the variability of lignin degradation. Over the past 120 years, OC burial rates at seven sites increased by factors ranging from 1.4 to 6.2. We propose that these increases represent net acceleration. Change in relative sea‐level rise is the most likely large‐scale driver of acceleration, and sediment deposition from large storms can contribute to periodic increases. Mangrove sites had higher OC and lignin burial rates than marsh sites, indicating inherent differences in OC burial factors between the two habitat types. The higher OC burial rates in mangrove soils mean that their encroachment into coastal freshwater marshes has the potential to increase burial rates in those locations even more than might be expected from the acceleration trends. Regionally, these findings suggest that burial represents a substantially growing proportion of the coastal wetland carbon budget.
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Quantitative, broadly applicable metrics of resilience are needed to effectively manage tidal marshes into the future. Here we quantified three metrics of temporal marsh resilience: time to marsh drowning, time to marsh tipping point, and the probability of a regime shift, defined as the conditional probability of a transition to an alternative super-optimal, suboptimal, or drowned state. We used organic matter content (loss on ignition, LOI) and peat age combined with the Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model (CWEM) to track wetland development and resilience under different sea-level rise scenarios in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) of California. A 100-year hindcast of the model showed excellent agreement ( R 2 = 0.96) between observed (2.86 mm/year) and predicted vertical accretion rates (2.98 mm/year) and correctly predicted a recovery in LOI ( R 2 = 0.76) after the California Gold Rush. Vertical accretion in the tidal freshwater marshes of the Delta is dominated by organic production. The large elevation range of the vegetation combined with high relative marsh elevation provides Delta marshes with resilience and elevation capital sufficiently great to tolerate centenary sea-level rise (CLSR) as high as 200 cm. The initial relative elevation of a marsh was a strong determinant of marsh survival time and tipping point. For a Delta marsh of average elevation, the tipping point at which vertical accretion no longer keeps up with the rate of sea-level rise is 50 years or more. Simulated, triennial additions of 6 mm of sediment via episodic atmospheric rivers increased the proportion of marshes surviving from 51% to 72% and decreased the proportion drowning from 49% to 28%. Our temporal metrics provide critical time frames for adaptively managing marshes, restoring marshes with the best chance of survival, and seizing opportunities for establishing migration corridors, which are all essential for safeguarding future habitats for sensitive species.more » « less
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Abstract Tidal marshes in the Chesapeake Bay are vulnerable to the accelerating rate of sea-level rise (SLR) and subsidence. Restored and created marshes face the same risks as natural marshes, and their resilience to SLR may depend upon appropriate design and implementation. Here, the Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model (CWEM) was used to assess the resilience of tidal marshes at the Paul S. Sarbanes Ecosystem Restoration Project at Poplar Island (PI) in mid-Chesapeake Bay, MD, where dredged material from navigation channels is being used to create new tidal marshes planted with
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Abstract The long‐term stability of coastal wetlands is determined by interactions among sea level, plant primary production, sediment supply, and wetland vertical accretion. Human activities in watersheds have significantly altered sediment delivery from the landscape to the coastal ocean, with declines along much of the U.S. East Coast. Tidal wetlands in coastal systems with low sediment supply may have limited ability to keep pace with accelerating rates of sea‐level rise (SLR). Here, we show that rates of vertical accretion and carbon accumulation in nine tidal wetland systems along the U.S. East Coast from Maine to Georgia can be explained by differences in the rate of relative SLR (RSLR), the concentration of suspended sediments in the rivers draining to the coast, and temperature in the coastal region. Further, we show that rates of vertical accretion have accelerated over the past century by between 0.010 and 0.083 mm yr−2, at roughly the same pace as the acceleration of global SLR. We estimate that rates of carbon sequestration in these wetland soils have accelerated (more than doubling at several sites) along with accelerating accretion. Wetland accretion and carbon accumulation have accelerated more rapidly in coastal systems with greater relative RSLR, higher watershed sediment availability, and lower temperatures. These findings suggest that the biogeomorphic feedback processes that control accretion and carbon accumulation in these tidal wetlands have responded to accelerating RSLR, and that changes to RSLR, watershed sediment supply, and temperature interact to determine wetland vulnerability across broad geographic scales.
