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Abstract AimUnderstanding and predicting the biological consequences of climate change requires considering the thermal sensitivity of organisms relative to environmental temperatures. One common approach involves ‘thermal safety margins’ (TSMs), which are generally estimated as the temperature differential between the highest temperature an organism can tolerate (critical thermal maximum, CTmax) and the mean or maximum environmental temperature it experiences. Yet, organisms face thermal stress and performance loss at body temperatures below their CTmax,and the steepness of that loss increases with the asymmetry of the thermal performance curve (TPC). LocationGlobal. Time period2015–2019. Major taxa studiedAnts, fish, insects, lizards and phytoplankton. MethodsWe examine variability in TPC asymmetry and the implications for thermal stress for 384 populations from 289 species across taxa and for metrics including ant and lizard locomotion, fish growth, and insect and phytoplankton fitness. ResultsWe find that the thermal optimum (Topt, beyond which performance declines) is more labile than CTmax, inducing interspecific variation in asymmetry. Importantly, the degree of TPC asymmetry increases with Topt. Thus, even though populations with higher Topts in a hot environment might experience above‐optimal body temperatures less often than do populations with lower Topts, they nonetheless experience steeper declines in performance at high body temperatures. Estimates of the annual cumulative decline in performance for temperatures above Toptsuggest that TPC asymmetry alters the onset, rate and severity of performance decrement at high body temperatures. Main conclusionsSpecies with the same TSMs can experience different thermal risk due to differences in TPC asymmetry. Metrics that incorporate additional aspects of TPC shape better capture the thermal risk of climate change than do TSMs.
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Larger diurnal temperature range undermined later autumn leaf senescence with warming in Europe
Abstract AimClimate change regulates autumn leaf senescence date (LSD), exhibiting a strong phenological control of plant carbon uptake. Unlike the delaying effect of daily mean temperature (Tmean) on LSD, the impact of warming asymmetry in daytime and nighttime, as evidenced by variations of the diurnal temperature range (DTR), remains elusive. The objectives of this study were to investigate physiological and ecological impacts of DTR on LSD using long‐termin situobservations and to predict the future trends of LSD under warming. LocationEurope. Time period1950–2015. Major taxa studiedPlant phenology. MethodsWe used partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression and ridge regression to explore the impacts of DTR on LSD. To quantify the importance of potential drivers of LSD, we trained random forest models and applied the SHapley Additive exPlanations method to isolate the marginal contributions of each predictor on LSD. For LSD modelling and projection, we first evaluated two temperature‐driven LSD models [i.e., cooling‐degree‐day (CDD, without DTR effect) and day–night‐temperature CDD (DNCDD, with DTR effect)], then applied them to predict future LSDs. ResultsWe found that observational increases inTmeanand DTR had contrasting effects on LSD. IncreasedTmeandelayed the LSD, whereas larger DTR overall had an advancing effect. Considering the DTR effect, theTmeansensitivity of LSD was 14% lower than presently estimated (2.4 vs. 2.8 days °C−1). Warming asymmetry‐related drought stress and plant functional traits (i.e., plant isohydricity and water‐use efficiency) potentially explained the advancing effect of DTR on LSD. We found that current projections of future LSD are overestimated because the DTR effect is discounted, suggesting the need for an adequate understanding of how plant phenology responds to warming asymmetry. Main conclusionsOur findings highlight the importance of DTR in controlling LSD variations with an advancing‐dominant effect and call for the improvement of phenology modelling incorporating the DTR effect. Given that DTR showed a globally narrowing trend over the last several decades, more efforts are needed to understand the potential ecological impacts of warming asymmetry and vegetation response to climate change.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2126798
- PAR ID:
- 10407196
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Global Ecology and Biogeography
- Volume:
- 32
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 1466-822X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 734-746
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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