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1. Constraining post-fire debris-flow volumes in the southwestern United States

   https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202341505004  

   Gorr, Alexander; McGuire, Luke; Youberg, Ann (August 2023, E3S Web of Conferences)

   Pirulli, M.; Leonardi, A.; Vagnon, F. (Ed.)

   Debris flows pose a serious threat to human life and infrastructure in downstream areas following wildfire. This underscores the necessity for having a hazard assessment framework in place that can be used to estimate the impacts of post-wildfire debris flows. Current hazard assessments in the western United States (USA) use empirical models to assess the volume of potential post-wildfire debris flows. Volume models provide information regarding the magnitude and potential downstream impacts of debris flows. In this study, we gathered post-wildfire debris-flow volume data from 54 watersheds across the states of Arizona (AZ) and New Mexico (NM), USA, and compared these data to the output of a widely used empirical post-wildfire debris-flow volume model. Results show that the volume model, which was developed using data from the Transverse Ranges of southern California (CA), tends to overestimate observed volumes from AZ and NM, sometimes by several orders of magnitude. This disparity may be explained by regional differences between southern CA and AZ and NM, including differences in sediment supply. However, we found a power- law relationship between debris-flow volume and watershed area that can be used to put first-order constraints on debris-flow volume in AZ and NM. 

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2. Inventory of debris flows in burned (2020-2022) and unburned (1995-2020) areas in the western Cascade Range of Oregon

   https://doi.org/10.5066/P13TPP8J  

   Selander, Brittany D; Calhoun, Nancy; Burns, William J; Rengers, Francis K; Kean, Jason W; Moffett, Kevan B; Patton, Annette I; Quinn, Dylan S; Roering, Joshua J (January 2024, U.S. Geological Survey)

   This data release contains two debris-flow inventories summarizing observations from burned and unburned areas in the western Cascade Range of Oregon (OR). The burned inventory focuses on debris flows that occurred during the first two years after the 2020 Archie Creek, Holiday Farm, Beachie Creek/Lionshead, and Riverside fires (OR_field_observations.csv). The unburned inventory (1995-2022) focuses on debris flows in the same areas (excluding the Riverside Fire). The inventories are derived from field observations (OR_field_observations.csv) and aerial imagery (OR_imagery_observations.csv). They include mapped debris-flow initiation locations, descriptions of the inferred initiation process, other notable site characteristics, and rainfall data. Locations of debris flows observed after wildfires are also linked to USGS postfire debris-flow hazard assessments (USGS, 2022; Staley and others, 2017; Thomas and others 2023). Rainfall characteristics for each debris flow in the inventory are derived from the closest rainfall gage to an observed debris flow (gage_locations.csv). Peak rainfall rates during the known time window of debris-flow initiation are reported for durations of 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 60 minutes, 12 hours, 24 hours, 36 hours, and 48 hours. More detailed explanations of the headers for each of these csv files can be found within the README_csvname.txt file. References: Landslide Hazards Program. (n.d.). Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards. U.S. Geological Survey. https://landslides.usgs.gov/hazards/postfire_debrisflow Staley, D. M., Negri, J. A., Kean, J. W., Laber, J. L., Tillery, A. C., and Youberg, A. M., 2017, Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States. Geomorphology, 278, 149–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.10.019 Thomas, M. A., Kean, J. W., McCoy, S. W., Lindsay, D. N., Kostelnik, J., Cavagnaro, D. B., Rengers, F. K., East, A. E., Schwartz, J. Y., Smith, D. P., and Collins, B. D., 2023, Postfire hydrologic response along the Central California (USA) coast: insights for the emergency assessment of postfire debris-flow hazards. Landslides, 20, 2421-2436. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-023-02106-7 

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3. Predicting post‐fire debris flow grain sizes and depositional volumes in the Intermountain West, United States

   https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5480  

   Wall, Sara; Murphy, Brendan P.; Belmont, Patrick; Yocom, Larissa (October 2022, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms)

   Abstract Post‐fire debris flows represent one of the most erosive consequences associated with increasing wildfire severity and investigations into their downstream impacts have been limited. Recent advances have linked existing hydrogeomorphic models to predict potential impacts of post‐fire erosion at watershed scales on downstream water resources. Here we address two key limitations in current models: (1) accurate predictions of post‐fire debris flow volumes in the absence of triggering storm rainfall intensities and (2) understanding controls on grain sizes produced by post‐fire debris flows. We compiled and analysed a novel dataset of depositional volumes and grain size distributions (GSDs) for 59 post‐fire debris flows across the Intermountain West (IMW) collected via fieldwork and from the literature. We first evaluated the utility of existing models for post‐fire debris flow volume prediction, which were largely developed for Southern California. We then constructed a new post‐fire debris flow volume prediction model for the IMW using a combination of Random Forest modelling and regression analysis. We found topography and burn severity to be important variables, and that the percentage of pre‐fire soil organic matter was an essential predictor variable. Our model was also capable of predicting debris flow volumes without data for the triggering storm, suggesting that rainfall may be more important as a presence/absence predictor, rather than a scaling variable. We also constructed the first models that predict the median, 16th percentile, and 84th percentile grain sizes, as well as boulder size, produced by post‐fire debris flows. These models demonstrate consistent landscape controls on debris flow GSDs that are related to land cover, physical and chemical weathering, and hillslope sediment transport processes. This work advances our ability to predict how post‐fire sediment pulses are transported through watersheds. Our models allow for improved pre‐ and post‐fire risk assessments across diverse ranges of watersheds in the IMW. 

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4. Dry sediment loading of headwater channels fuels post-wildfire debris flows in bedrock landscapes

   https://doi.org/10.1130/G46847.1  

   DiBiase, Roman A.; Lamb, Michael P. (December 2019, Geology)

   Abstract Landscapes following wildfire commonly have significant increases in sediment yield and debris flows that pose major hazards and are difficult to predict. Ultimately, post-wildfire sediment yield is governed by processes that deliver sediment from hillslopes to channels, but it is commonly unclear the degree to which hillslope sediment delivery is driven by wet versus dry processes, which limits the ability to predict debris-flow occurrence and response to climate change. Here we use repeat airborne lidar topography to track sediment movement following the 2009 CE Station Fire in southern California, USA, and show that post-wildfire debris flows initiated in channels filled by dry sediment transport, rather than on hillsides during rainfall as typically assumed. We found widespread patterns of 1–3 m of dry sediment loading in headwater channels immediately following wildfire and before rainfall, followed by sediment excavation during subsequent storms. In catchments where post-wildfire dry sediment loading was absent, possibly due to differences in lithology, channel scour during storms did not occur. Our results support a fire-flood model in bedrock landscapes whereby debris-flow occurrence depends on dry sediment loading rather than hillslope-runoff erosion, shallow landslides, or burn severity, indicating that sediment supply can limit debris-flow occurrence in bedrock landscapes with more-frequent fires. 

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5. Rainfall Thresholds for Postfire Debris‐Flow Initiation Vary With Short‐Duration Rainfall Climatology

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007781  

   Cavagnaro, David B; McCoy, Scott W; Lindsay, Donald N; McGuire, Luke A; Kean, Jason W; Trugman, Daniel T (June 2025, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface)

   The size, frequency, and geographic scope of severe wildfires are expanding across the globe, including in the Western United States. Recently burned steeplands have an increased likelihood of debris flows, which pose hazards to downstream communities. The conditions for postfire debris‐flow initiation are commonly expressed as rainfall intensity‐duration thresholds, which can be estimated given sufficient observational history. However, the spread of wildfire across diverse climates poses a challenge for accurate threshold prediction in areas with limited observations. Studies of mass‐movement processes in unburned areas indicate that thresholds vary with local climate, such that higher rainfall rates are required for initiation in climates characterized by frequent intense rainfall. Here, we use three independent methods to test whether initiation of postfire runoff‐generated debris flows across the Western United States varies similarly with climate. Through the compilation of observed thresholds at various fires, analysis of the spatial density of observed debris flows, and quantification of feature importance at different spatial scales, we show that postfire debris‐flow initiation thresholds vary systematically with short‐duration rainfall‐intensity climatology. The predictive power of climatological data sets that are readily available before a fire occurs offers a much‐needed tool for hazard management in regions that are facing increased wildfire activity, have sparse observational history, and/or have limited resources for field‐based hazard assessment. Furthermore, if the observed variation in thresholds reflects long‐term adjustment of the landscape to local climate, rapid shifts in rainfall intensity related to climate change will likely induce spatially variable shifts in postfire debris‐flow likelihood. 

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