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1. Shapley Values and Meta-Explanations for Probabilistic Graphical Model Inference

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3340531.3411881  

   Liu, Yifei; Chen, Chao; Liu, Yazheng; Zhang, Xi; Xie, Sihong (October 2020, Proceedings of the 29th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM'2020))

   Probabilistic graphical models, such as Markov random fields (MRF), exploit dependencies among random variables to model a rich family of joint probability distributions. Inference algorithms, such as belief propagation (BP), can effectively compute the marginal posteriors for decision making. Nonetheless, inferences involve sophisticated probability calculations and are difficult for humans to interpret. Among all existing explanation methods for MRFs, no method is designed for fair attributions of an inference outcome to elements on the MRF where the inference takes place. Shapley values provide rigorous attributions but so far have not been studied on MRFs. We thus define Shapley values for MRFs to capture both probabilistic and topological contributions of the variables on MRFs. We theoretically characterize the new definition regarding independence, equal contribution, additivity, and submodularity. As brute-force computation of the Shapley values is challenging, we propose GraphShapley, an approximation algorithm that exploits the decomposability of Shapley values, the structure of MRFs, and the iterative nature of BP inference to speed up the computation. In practice, we propose meta-explanations to explain the Shapley values and make them more accessible and trustworthy to human users. On four synthetic and nine real-world MRFs, we demonstrate that GraphShapley generates sensible and practical explanations. 

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2. Detecting Disjoint Shortest Paths in Linear Time and More

   https://doi.org/10.4230/LIPIcs.ICALP.2024.9  

   Akmal, Shyan; Vassilevska_Williams, Virginia; Wein, Nicole (January 2024, Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik)

   Bringmann, Karl; Grohe, Martin; Puppis, Gabriele; Svensson, Ola (Ed.)

   In the k-Disjoint Shortest Paths (k-DSP) problem, we are given a graph G (with positive edge weights) on n nodes and m edges with specified source vertices s_1, … , s_k, and target vertices t_1, … , t_k, and are tasked with determining if G contains vertex-disjoint (s_i,t_i)-shortest paths. For any constant k, it is known that k-DSP can be solved in polynomial time over undirected graphs and directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However, the exact time complexity of k-DSP remains mysterious, with large gaps between the fastest known algorithms and best conditional lower bounds. In this paper, we obtain faster algorithms for important cases of k-DSP, and present better conditional lower bounds for k-DSP and its variants. Previous work solved 2-DSP over weighted undirected graphs in O(n⁷) time, and weighted DAGs in O(mn) time. For the main result of this paper, we present optimal linear time algorithms for solving 2-DSP on weighted undirected graphs and DAGs. Our linear time algorithms are algebraic however, and so only solve the detection rather than search version of 2-DSP (we show how to solve the search version in O(mn) time, which is faster than the previous best runtime in weighted undirected graphs, but only matches the previous best runtime for DAGs). We also obtain a faster algorithm for k-Edge Disjoint Shortest Paths (k-EDSP) in DAGs, the variant of k-DSP where one seeks edge-disjoint instead of vertex-disjoint paths between sources and their corresponding targets. Algorithms for k-EDSP on DAGs from previous work take Ω(m^k) time. We show that k-EDSP can be solved over DAGs in O(mn^{k-1}) time, matching the fastest known runtime for solving k-DSP over DAGs. Previous work established conditional lower bounds for solving k-DSP and its variants via reductions from detecting cliques in graphs. Prior work implied that k-Clique can be reduced to 2k-DSP in DAGs and undirected graphs with O((kn)²) nodes. We improve this reduction, by showing how to reduce from k-Clique to k-DSP in DAGs and undirected graphs with O((kn)²) nodes (halving the number of paths needed in the reduced instance). A variant of k-DSP is the k-Disjoint Paths (k-DP) problem, where the solution paths no longer need to be shortest paths. Previous work reduced from k-Clique to p-DP in DAGs with O(kn) nodes, for p = k + k(k-1)/2. We improve this by showing a reduction from k-Clique to p-DP, for p = k + ⌊k²/4⌋. Under the k-Clique Hypothesis from fine-grained complexity, our results establish better conditional lower bounds for k-DSP for all k ≥ 4, and better conditional lower bounds for p-DP for all p ≤ 4031. Notably, our work gives the first nontrivial conditional lower bounds 4-DP in DAGs and 4-DSP in undirected graphs and DAGs. Before our work, nontrivial conditional lower bounds were only known for k-DP and k-DSP on such graphs when k ≥ 6. 

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3. Causal Inference Despite Limited Global Confounding via Mixture Models

   Gordon, S.; Mazaheri, B.; Rabani, Y.; Schulman, L. (April 2023, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research)

   van der Schaar, M.; Zhang, C.; Janzing, D. (Ed.)

   A Bayesian Network is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) on a set of n random variables (the vertices); a Bayesian Network Distribution (BND) is a probability distribution on the random variables that is Markovian on the graph. A finite k-mixture of such models is graphically represented by a larger graph which has an additional “hidden” (or “latent”) random variable U, ranging in {1,...,k}, and a directed edge from U to every other vertex. Models of this type are fundamental to causal inference, where U models an unobserved confounding effect of multiple populations, obscuring the causal relationships in the observable DAG. By solving the mixture problem and recovering the joint probability distribution with U, traditionally unidentifiable causal relationships become identifiable. Using a reduction to the more well-studied “product” case on empty graphs, we give the first algorithm to learn mixtures of non-empty DAGs. 

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4. Lifted Hinge-Loss Markov Random Fields

   https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v33i01.33017975  

   Srinivasan, Sriram; Babaki, Behrouz; Farnadi, Golnoosh; Getoor, Lise (July 2019, Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)

   Statistical relational learning models are powerful tools that combine ideas from first-order logic with probabilistic graphical models to represent complex dependencies. Despite their success in encoding large problems with a compact set of weighted rules, performing inference over these models is often challenging. In this paper, we show how to effectively combine two powerful ideas for scaling inference for large graphical models. The first idea, lifted inference, is a wellstudied approach to speeding up inference in graphical models by exploiting symmetries in the underlying problem. The second idea is to frame Maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference as a convex optimization problem and use alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) to solve the problem in parallel. A well-studied relaxation to the combinatorial optimization problem defined for logical Markov random fields gives rise to a hinge-loss Markov random field (HLMRF) for which MAP inference is a convex optimization problem. We show how the formalism introduced for coloring weighted bipartite graphs using a color refinement algorithm can be integrated with the ADMM optimization technique to take advantage of the sparse dependency structures of HLMRFs. Our proposed approach, lifted hinge-loss Markov random fields (LHL-MRFs), preserves the structure of the original problem after lifting and solves lifted inference as distributed convex optimization with ADMM. In our empirical evaluation on real-world problems, we observe up to a three times speed up in inference over HL-MRFs. 

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5. Learning sparse nonparametric DAGs

   Zheng, Xun; Dan, Chen; Aragam, Bryon; Ravikumar, Pradeep; Xing, Eric (July 2020, International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics)

   null (Ed.)

   We develop a framework for learning sparse nonparametric directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from data. Our approach is based on a recent algebraic characterization of DAGs that led to a fully continuous program for score-based learning of DAG models parametrized by a linear structural equation model (SEM). We extend this algebraic characterization to nonparametric SEM by leveraging nonparametric sparsity based on partial derivatives, resulting in a continuous optimization problem that can be applied to a variety of nonparametric and semiparametric models including GLMs, additive noise models, and index models as special cases. Unlike existing approaches that require specific modeling choices, loss functions, or algorithms, we present a completely general framework that can be applied to general nonlinear models (e.g. without additive noise), general differentiable loss functions, and generic black-box optimization routines. 

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