skip to main content

Explore Research Products in the NSF-PAR

Title: Adaptation of water resources management under climate change
The rapid growth of demand in agricultural production has created water scarcity issues worldwide. Simultaneously, climate change scenarios have projected that more frequent and severe droughts are likely to occur. Adaptive water resources management has been suggested as one strategy to better coordinate surface water and groundwater resources (i.e., conjunctive water use) to address droughts. In this study, we enhanced an aggregated water resource management tool that represents integrated agriculture, water, energy, and social systems. We applied this tool to the Yakima River Basin (YRB) in Washington State, USA. We selected four indicators of system resilience and sustainability to evaluate four adaptation methods associated with adoption behaviors in alleviating drought impacts on agriculture under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. We analyzed the characteristics of four adaptation methods, including greenhouses, crop planting time, irrigation technology, and managed aquifer recharge as well as alternating supply and demand dynamics to overcome drought impact. The results show that climate conditions with severe and consecutive droughts require more financial and natural resources to achieve well-implemented adaptation strategies. For long-term impact analysis, managed aquifer recharge appeared to be a cost-effective and easy-to-adopt option, whereas water entitlements are likely to get exhausted during multiple consecutive drought events. Greenhouses and water-efficient technologies are more effective in improving irrigation reliability under RCP 8.5 when widely adopted. However, implementing all adaptation methods together is the only way to alleviate most of the drought impacts projected in the future. The water resources management tool helps stakeholders and researchers gain insights in the roles of modern inventions in agricultural water cycle dynamics in the context of interactive multi-sector systems.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1639458
NSF-PAR ID:
10388673
Author(s) / Creator(s):
;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Frontiers in Water
Volume:
4
ISSN:
2624-9375
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; ; ( , Water)
    null (Ed.)
    Frequent droughts, seasonal precipitation, and growing agricultural water demand in the Yakima River Basin (YRB), located in Washington State, increase the challenges of optimizing water provision for agricultural producers. Increasing water storage through managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can potentially relief water stress from single and multi-year droughts. In this study, we developed an aggregated water resources management tool using a System Dynamics (SD) framework for the YRB and evaluated the MAR implementation strategy and the effectiveness of MAR in alleviating drought impacts on irrigation reliability. The SD model allocates available water resources to meet instream target flows, hydropower demands, and irrigation demand, based on system operation rules, irrigation scheduling, water rights, and MAR adoption. Our findings suggest that the adopted infiltration area for MAR is one of the main factors that determines the amount of water withdrawn and infiltrated to the groundwater system. The implementation time frame is also critical in accumulating MAR entitlements for single-year and multi-year droughts mitigation. In addition, adoption behaviors drive a positive feedback that MAR effectiveness on drought mitigation will encourage more MAR adoptions in the long run. MAR serves as a promising option for water storage management and a long-term strategy for MAR implementation can improve system resilience to unexpected droughts. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; ; ; ; ( , Global Change Biology)
    Abstract

    Heat and drought are two emerging climatic threats to theUSmaize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmosphericCO2concentrations. This study quantifies the combined and separate impacts of high temperature, heat and drought stresses on the current and futureUSrainfed maize and soybean production and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of individual stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), driven by high‐resolution (12 km) dynamically downscaled climate projections for 1995–2004 and 2085–2094. Results show that maize and soybean yield losses are prominent in theUSMidwest by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 andRCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of loss highly depends on the current vulnerability and changes in climate extremes. Elevated atmosphericCO2partially but not completely offsets the yield gaps caused by climate extremes, and the effect is greater in soybean than in maize. Our simulations suggest that drought will continue to be the largest threat toUSrainfed maize production underRCP4.5 and soybean production under bothRCPscenarios, whereas high temperature and heat stress take over the dominant stress of drought on maize underRCP8.5. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stresses are characterized by the increase in concurrent stresses, especially for theUSMidwest. These findings imply the importance of considering heat and drought stresses simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management. The modeling framework of partitioning the total effects of climate change into individual stress impacts can be applied to the study of other crops and agriculture systems.

     
    more » « less
  3. ; ; ; ; ; ( , Climate)
    null (Ed.)
    Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions. 
    more » « less
  4. ; ; ; ( , Environmental Research Letters)
    Abstract

    Accumulating evidence on the impact of climate change on droughts, highlights the necessity for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Changes in future drought risk and severity in Australia are quantified by analyzing nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models. Historic conditions (1981–2014) and projections for mid-century (2015–2050) and end-century (2051–2100) from four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) are examined. Drought events are identified using both the standardized precipitation index and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. The spatial-temporal evolution of droughts is addressed by quantifying the areal extent of regions under moderate, severe and extreme drought from historic to end-century periods. Drought characteristics derived from the models are used to develop severity–duration–frequency curves using an extreme value analysis method based on ordinary events. Under SSP5-8.5, a tenfold increase in the area subject to extreme droughts is projected by the end of the century, while a twofold increase is projected under SSP1-2.6. Increase in extreme droughts frequency is found to be more pronounced in the southern and western regions of Australia. For example, frequency analysis of 12 month duration droughts for the state of South Australia indicates that, under SSP5-8.5, drought severities currently expected to happen on average only once in 100 years could happen as often as once in 3 years by the end of the century, with a 33 times higher risk (from 1% to 33%), while under SSP1-2.6, the increase is fivefold (1%–5%). The significant difference in the increase of drought risk between the two extreme scenarios highlights the urge to reduce greenhouse gases emission in order to avoid extreme drought conditions to become the norm by the end of the century.

     
    more » « less
  5. ; ; ; ; ; ( , Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene)
    As blue water resources become increasingly scarce with more frequent droughts and overuse, irrigated agriculture faces significant challenges to reduce its water footprint while maintaining high levels of crop production. Building soil health has been touted as an important means of enhancing the resilience of agroecosystems to drought, mainly with a focus in rainfed systems reliant on green water through increases in infiltration and soil water storage. Yet, green water often contributes only a small fraction of the total crop water budget in irrigated agricultural regions. To scope the potential for how soil health management could impact water resources in irrigated systems, we review how soil health affects soil water flows, plant–soil–microbe interactions, and plant water capture and productive use. We assess how these effects could interact with irrigation management to help make green and blue water use more sustainable. We show how soil health management could (1) optimize green water availability (e.g., by increasing infiltration and soil water storage), (2) maximize productive water flows (e.g., by reducing evaporation and supporting crop growth), and (3) reduce blue water withdrawals (e.g., by minimizing the impacts of water stress on crop productivity). Quantifying the potential of soil health to improve water resource management will require research that focuses on outcomes for green and blue water provisioning and crop production under different irrigation and crop management strategies. Such information could be used to improve and parameterize finer scale crop, soil, and hydraulic models, which in turn must be linked with larger scale hydrologic models to address critical water-resources management questions at watershed or regional scales. While integrated soil health-water management strategies have considerable potential to conserve water—especially compared to irrigation technologies that enhance field-level water use efficiency but often increase regional water use—transitions to these strategies will depend on more than technical understanding and must include addressing interrelated structural and institutional barriers. By scoping a range of ways enhancing soil health could improve resilience to water limitations and identifying key research directions, we inform research and policy priorities aimed at adapting irrigated agriculture to an increasingly challenging future. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email