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1. Liquid Democracy: An Algorithmic Perspective

   https://doi.org/10.1613/jair.1.12261  

   Kahng, Anson ; Mackenzie, Simon ; Procaccia, Ariel ( January 2021 , Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research)

   null (Ed.)

   We study liquid democracy, a collective decision making paradigm that allows voters to transitively delegate their votes, through an algorithmic lens. In our model, there are two alternatives, one correct and one incorrect, and we are interested in the probability that the majority opinion is correct. Our main question is whether there exist delegation mechanisms that are guaranteed to outperform direct voting, in the sense of being always at least as likely, and sometimes more likely, to make a correct decision. Even though we assume that voters can only delegate their votes to better-informed voters, we show that local delegation mechanisms, which only take the local neighborhood of each voter as input (and, arguably, capture the spirit of liquid democracy), cannot provide the foregoing guarantee. By contrast, we design a non-local delegation mechanism that does provably outperform direct voting under mild assumptions about voters. 

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2. Dynamically monitoring crowd-worker's reliability with interval-valued labels

   https://doi.org/10.54941/ahfe1003270  

   Hu, Chenyi ; Spurling, Makenzie ( January 2023 , AHFE International)

   Crowdsourcing has rapidly become a computing paradigm in machine learning and artificial intelligence. In crowdsourcing, multiple labels are collected from crowd-workers on an instance usually through the Internet. These labels are then aggregated as a single label to match the ground truth of the instance. Due to its open nature, human workers in crowdsourcing usually come with various levels of knowledge and socio-economic backgrounds. Effectively handling such human factors has been a focus in the study and applications of crowdsourcing. For example, Bi et al studied the impacts of worker's dedication, expertise, judgment, and task difficulty (Bi et al 2014). Qiu et al offered methods for selecting workers based on behavior prediction (Qiu et al 2016). Barbosa and Chen suggested rehumanizing crowdsourcing to deal with human biases (Barbosa 2019). Checco et al studied adversarial attacks on crowdsourcing for quality control (Checco et al 2020). There are many more related works available in literature. In contrast to commonly used binary-valued labels, interval-valued labels (IVLs) have been introduced very recently (Hu et al 2021). Applying statistical and probabilistic properties of interval-valued datasets, Spurling et al quantitatively defined worker's reliability in four measures: correctness, confidence, stability, and predictability (Spurling et al 2021). Calculating these measures, except correctness, does not require the ground truth of each instance but only worker’s IVLs. Applying these quantified reliability measures, people have significantly improved the overall quality of crowdsourcing (Spurling et al 2022). However, in real world applications, the reliability of a worker may vary from time to time rather than a constant. It is necessary to monitor worker’s reliability dynamically. Because a worker j labels instances sequentially, we treat j’s IVLs as an interval-valued time series in our approach. Assuming j’s reliability relies on the IVLs within a time window only, we calculate j’s reliability measures with the IVLs in the current time window. Moving the time window forward with our proposed practical strategies, we can monitor j’s reliability dynamically. Furthermore, the four reliability measures derived from IVLs are time varying too. With regression analysis, we can separate each reliability measure as an explainable trend and possible errors. To validate our approaches, we use four real world benchmark datasets in our computational experiments. Here are the main findings. The reliability weighted interval majority voting (WIMV) and weighted preferred matching probability (WPMP) schemes consistently overperform the base schemes in terms of much higher accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. Note: the base schemes are majority voting (MV), interval majority voting (IMV), and preferred matching probability (PMP). Through monitoring worker’s reliability, our computational experiments have successfully identified possible attackers. By removing identified attackers, we have ensured the quality. We have also examined the impact of window size selection. It is necessary to monitor worker’s reliability dynamically, and our computational results evident the potential success of our approaches.This work is partially supported by the US National Science Foundation through the grant award NSF/OIA-1946391.

    

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3. The Swing Voter Paradox: Electoral Politics in a Nationalized Era

   Shiro Kuriwaki ( January 2021 , Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Government, Harvard University)

   With each successive election since at least 1994, congressional elections in the United States have transitioned toward nationalized two-party government. Fewer voters split their tickets for different parties between President and Congress. Regional blocs and incumbency voting --- a key feature of U.S. elections in the latter 20th century --- appear to have given way to strong party discipline among candidates and nationalized partisanship among voters. Observers of modern American politics are therefore tempted to write off the importance of the swing voter, defined here as voters who are indifferent between the two parties and thus likely to split their ticket or switch their party support. By assembling data from historical elections (1950 -- 2020), surveys (2008 -- 2018), and cast vote record data (2010 -- 2018), and through developing statistical methods to analyze such data, I argue that although they comprise a smaller portion of the electorate, each swing voter is disproportionately decisive in modern American politics, a phenomenon I call the swing voter paradox. Historical comparisons across Congressional, state executive, and state legislative elections confirm the decline in aggregate measures of ticket splitting suggested in past work. But the same indicator has not declined nearly as much in county legislative or county sheriff elections (Chapter 1). Ticket splitters and party switchers tend to be voters with low news interest and ideological moderate. Consistent with a spatial voting model with valence, voters also become ticket splitters when incumbents run (Chapter 2). I then provide one of the first direct measures of ticket splitting instate and local office using cast vote records. I find that ticket splitting is more prevalent in state and local elections (Chapter 3). This is surprising given the conventional wisdom that party labels serve as heuristics and down-ballot elections are low information environments. A major barrier for existing studies of the swing voter lies in the measurement from incomplete electoral data. Traditional methods struggle to extract information about subgroups from large surveys or cast vote records, because of small subgroup samples, multi-dimensional data, and systematic missingness. I therefore develop a procedure for reweighting surveys to small areas through expanding poststratification targets (Chapter 4), and a clustering algorithm for survey or ballot data with multiple offices to extract interpretable voting blocs (Chapter 5). I provide open-source software to implement both methods. These findings challenge a common characterization of modern American politics as one dominated by rigidly polarized parties and partisans. The picture that emerges instead is one where swing voters are rare but can dramatically decide the party in power, and where no single demographic group is a swing voter. Instead of entrenching elections into red states and blue states, nationalization may heighten the role of the persuadable voter. 

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4. Pandering in a (flexible) representative democracy

   Sun, Xiaolin ; Masur, Jacob ; Abramowitz, Ben ; Mattei, Nicholas ; Zheng ; Zizhan ( August 2023 , Proceedings of the 39th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence)

   In representative democracies, regular election cycles are supposed to prevent misbehavior by elected officials, hold them accountable, and subject them to the “will of the people." Pandering, or dishonest preference reporting by candidates campaigning for election, undermines this democratic idea. Much of the work on Computational Social Choice to date has investigated strategic actions in only a single election. We introduce a novel formal model of pandering and examine the resilience of two voting systems, Representative Democracy (RD) and Flexible Representative Democracy (FRD), to pandering within a single election and across multiple rounds of elections. For both voting systems, our analysis centers on the types of strategies candidates employ and how voters update their views of candidates based on how the candidates have pandered in the past. We provide theoretical results on the complexity of pandering in our setting for a single election, formulate our problem for multiple cycles as a Markov Decision Process, and use reinforcement learning to study the effects of pandering by single candidates and groups of candidates over many rounds. 

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5. Dynamic nonlocal passive scalar subgrid-scale turbulence modeling

   https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0106733  

   Seyedi, S. Hadi ; Akhavan-Safaei, Ali ; Zayernouri, Mohsen ( October 2022 , Physics of Fluids)

   Extensive experimental evidence highlights that scalar turbulence exhibits anomalous diffusion and stronger intermittency levels at small scales compared to that in fluid turbulence. This renders the corresponding subgrid-scale dynamics modeling for scalar turbulence a greater challenge to date. We develop a new large eddy simulation (LES) paradigm for efficiently and dynamically nonlocal LES modeling of the scalar turbulence. To this end, we formulate the underlying nonlocal model starting from the filtered Boltzmann kinetic transport equation, where the divergence of subgrid-scale scalar fluxes emerges as a fractional-order Laplacian term in the filtered advection–diffusion model, coding the corresponding superdiffusive nature of scalar turbulence. Subsequently, we develop a robust data-driven algorithm for estimation of the fractional (noninteger) Laplacian exponent, where we, on the fly, calculate the corresponding model coefficient employing a new dynamic procedure. Our a priori tests show that our new dynamically nonlocal LES paradigm provides better agreement with the ground-truth filtered direct numerical simulation data in comparison to the conventional static and dynamic Prandtl–Smagorinsky models. Moreover, in order to analyze the numerical stability and assessing the model's performance, we carry out comprehensive a posteriori tests. They unanimously illustrate that our new model considerably outperforms other existing functional models, correctly predicting the backscattering phenomena and, at the same time, providing higher correlations at small-to-large filter sizes. We conclude that our proposed nonlocal subgrid-scale model for scalar turbulence is amenable for coarse LES and very large eddy simulation frameworks even with strong anisotropies, applicable to environmental applications.

    

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