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Abstract Sufficient low-level storm-relative flow is a necessary ingredient for sustained supercell thunderstorms and is connected to supercell updraft width. Assuming a supercell exists, the role of low-level storm-relative flow in regulating supercells’ low-level mesocyclone intensity is less clear. One possibility considered in this article is that storm-relative flow controls mesocyclone and tornado width via its modulation of overall updraft extent. This hypothesis relies on a previously postulated positive correspondence between updraft width, mesocyclone width, and tornado width. An alternative hypothesis is that mesocyclone characteristics are primarily regulated by horizontal streamwise vorticity irrespective of storm-relative flow. A matrix of supercell simulations was analyzed to address the aforementioned hypotheses, wherein horizontal streamwise vorticity and storm-relative flow were independently varied. Among these simulations, mesocyclone width and intensity were strongly correlated with horizontal streamwise vorticity, and comparatively weakly correlated with storm-relative flow, supporting the second hypothesis. Accompanying theory and trajectory analysis offers the physical explanation that, when storm-relative flow is large and updrafts are wide, vertically tilted streamwise vorticity is projected over a wider area but with a lesser average magnitude than when these parameters are small. These factors partially offset one another, degrading the correspondence of storm-relative flow with updraft circulation and rotational velocity, which are the mesocyclone attributes most closely tied to tornadoes. These results refute the previously purported connections between updraft width, mesocyclone width, and tornado width, and emphasize horizontal streamwise vorticity as the primary control on low-level mesocyclones in sustained supercells. Significance Statement The intensity of a supercell thunderstorm’s low-level rotation, known as the “mesocyclone,” is thought to influence tornado likelihood. Mesocyclone intensity depends on many environmental attributes that are often correlated with one another and difficult to disentangle. This study used a large body of numerical simulations to investigate the influence of the speed of low-level air entering a supercell (storm-relative flow), the horizontal spin of the ambient air entering the thunderstorm (streamwise vorticity), and the width of the storm’s updraft. Our results suggest that the rotation of the mesocyclone in supercells is primarily influenced by streamwise vorticity, with comparatively weaker connections to storm-relative flow and updraft width. These findings provide important clarification in our scientific understanding of how a storm’s environment influences the rate of rotation of its mesocyclone, and the associated tornado threat.
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Supercell low-level mesocyclones: Origins of inflow and vorticity
Abstract The development and intensification of low-level mesocyclones in supercell thunderstorms has often been attributed, at least in part, to augmented streamwise vorticity generated baroclinically in the forward flank of supercells. However, the ambient streamwise vorticity of the environment (often quantified via storm-relative helicity), especially near the ground, is particularly skillful at discriminating between nontornadic and tornadic supercells. This study investigates whether the origins of the inflow air into supercell low-level mesocyclones, both horizontally and vertically, can help explain the dynamical role of environmental versus storm-generated vorticity in the development of low-level mesocyclone rotation. Simulations of supercells, initialized with wind profiles common to supercell environments observed in nature, show that the air bound for the low-level mesocyclone primarily originates from the ambient environment (rather than from along the forward flank) and from very close to the ground, often in the lowest 200 - 400 m of the atmosphere. Given that the near-ground environmental air comprises the bulk of the inflow into low-level mesocyclones, this likely explains the forecast skill of environmental streamwise vorticity in the lowest few hundred meters of the atmosphere. The low-level mesocyclone does not appear to require much augmentation from the development of additional horizontal vorticity in the forward flank. Instead, the dominant contributor to vertical vorticity within the low-level mesocyclone is from the environmental horizontal vorticity. This study provides further context to the on-going discussion regarding the development of rotation within supercell low-level mesocyclones.
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- PAR ID:
- 10417774
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Monthly Weather Review
- ISSN:
- 0027-0644
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0269.1
