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1. Hydromechanical modeling of evolving post-wildfire regional-scale landslide susceptibility

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2024.107538  

   Abdollahi, Masood; Vahedifard, Farshid; Leshchinsky, Ben A (June 2024, Engineering Geology)

   Post-wildfire mass wasting is a major problem throughout many regions worldwide. Recent dramatic increases in global wildfire activities coupled with a shift in wildfire-prone elevation to higher altitudes raise the need to better predict post-fire rainfall-triggered landslides. Despite its importance, only a limited number of studies have investigated landslide susceptibility in areas hit by wildfires using hydromechanical models. However, most of these studies follow either qualitative or semi-quantitative approaches without explicitly considering the fire’s effects on the impacted area’s physical behavior. This study aims to develop and employ a physics-based framework to generate susceptibility maps of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in areas disturbed by wildfire. A coupled hydromechanical model considering unsaturated flow and root reinforcement is integrated into an infinite slope stability model to simulate the triggering of shallow landslides from rainfall. The impact of fire is considered through its effects on soil and land cover properties, near-surface processes, and canopy interception. The developed model is then integrated into a geographic information system (GIS) to characterize the regional distribution of landslide potential and its variability considering topography, geology, land cover, and burn severity. The proposed framework was tested for a study site in Southern California. The site was burned in the San Gabriel Complex Fire in June 2016 and experienced widespread landsliding almost three years later following an extreme rainstorm in January 2019. The proposed framework could successfully model the location of observed shallow landslides. The model also revealed a significantly higher likelihood for slope failure in areas burned at moderate to high severities as opposed to unburned and low-burn severity areas. The findings of this study can be employed to predict the timing and general locations of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides following wildfires. 

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2. A hydrologic signature approach to analysing wildfire impacts on overland flow

   Bolotin, Lauren A; McMillan, Hilary K (June 2024, Hydrological processes)

   Post-fire flooding and debris flows are often triggered by increased overland flow resulting from wildfire impacts on soil infiltration capacity and surface roughness. Increasing wildfire activity and intensification of precipitation with climate change make improving understanding of post-fire overland flow a particularly pertinent task. Hydrologic signatures, which are metrics that summarize the hydrologic regime of watersheds using rainfall and runoff time series, can be calculated for large samples of watersheds relatively easily to understand post-fire hydrologic processes. We demonstrate that signatures designed specifically for overland flow reflect changes to overland flow processes with wildfire that align with previous case studies on burned watersheds. For example, signatures suggest increases in infiltration-excess overland flow and decrease in saturation-excess overland flow in the first and second years after wildfire in the majority of watersheds examined. We show that climate, watershed and wildfire attributes can predict either post-fire signatures of overland flow or changes in signature values with wildfire using machine learning. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), air temperature, amount of developed/undeveloped land, soil thickness and clay content were the most used predictors by well-performing machine learning models. Signatures of overland flow provide a streamlined approach for characterizing and understanding post-fire overland flow, which is beneficial for watershed managers who must rapidly assess and mitigate the risk of post-fire hydrologic hazards after wildfire occurs. 

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3. Dry sediment loading of headwater channels fuels post-wildfire debris flows in bedrock landscapes

   https://doi.org/10.1130/G46847.1  

   DiBiase, Roman A.; Lamb, Michael P. (December 2019, Geology)

   Abstract Landscapes following wildfire commonly have significant increases in sediment yield and debris flows that pose major hazards and are difficult to predict. Ultimately, post-wildfire sediment yield is governed by processes that deliver sediment from hillslopes to channels, but it is commonly unclear the degree to which hillslope sediment delivery is driven by wet versus dry processes, which limits the ability to predict debris-flow occurrence and response to climate change. Here we use repeat airborne lidar topography to track sediment movement following the 2009 CE Station Fire in southern California, USA, and show that post-wildfire debris flows initiated in channels filled by dry sediment transport, rather than on hillsides during rainfall as typically assumed. We found widespread patterns of 1–3 m of dry sediment loading in headwater channels immediately following wildfire and before rainfall, followed by sediment excavation during subsequent storms. In catchments where post-wildfire dry sediment loading was absent, possibly due to differences in lithology, channel scour during storms did not occur. Our results support a fire-flood model in bedrock landscapes whereby debris-flow occurrence depends on dry sediment loading rather than hillslope-runoff erosion, shallow landslides, or burn severity, indicating that sediment supply can limit debris-flow occurrence in bedrock landscapes with more-frequent fires. 

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4. Triggering rainfall intensities for post-wildfire debris flows in the Sonoran Desertscrub plant community

   https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202341504010  

   McGuire, Luke; Youberg, Ann; Gorr, Alexander; Beers, Rebecca (August 2023, E3S Web of Conferences)

   Pirulli, M; Leonardi, A; Vagnon, F (Ed.)

   Wildfire makes landscapes more vulnerable to debris flows by reducing soil infiltration capacity and decreasing vegetation cover. The extent to which fire affects debris-flow processes depends on the severity of the fire, the climatology of intense rainfall, the pre-fire plant community, and sediment supply, among other factors. As fire expands into new plant communities and geographic regions, there is a corresponding need to expand efforts to document fire-induced changes and their impacts on debris-flow processes. In recent years, several large wildfires have impacted portions of the Sonoran Desertscrub plant community in Arizona, USA, a plant community where fire has been historically infrequent. Following two of these fires, we monitored debris-flow activity at the watershed scale and quantified wildfire-driven changes in soil hydraulic properties using in-situ measurements with mini disk tension infiltrometers. Results indicate that rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of post-fire debris flows in recently burned watersheds within the Sonoran Desertscrub plant community are substantially greater than those in nearby areas dominated by other plant communities, such as chaparral. Results provide insight into the impact of fire on debris-flow processes in a plant community where it is likely to be more impactful in the future and help expand existing post-fire debris flow databases into a plant community where there is a paucity of observations. 

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5. A Case Study of Soil Moisture and Infiltration after an Urban Fire

   https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3020022  

   Alkin, Quinn; Kinoshita, Alicia M. (June 2020, Fire)

   null (Ed.)

   There is an increased risk of future fire disturbances due to climate change and anthropogenic activity. These disturbances can impact soil moisture content and infiltration, which are important antecedent conditions for predicting rainfall–runoff processes in semi-arid regions. Yet these conditions are not well documented. This case study provides critical field measurements and information, which are needed to improve our understanding of mechanisms such as precipitation and temperature that lead to the variability of soil properties and processes in urban and burned landscapes. In June 2018, a fire burned a portion of the riparian zone in Alvarado Creek, an urban tributary of the San Diego River in California, United States. This fire provided an opportunity to observe soil moisture content and infiltration for one year after the fire. Three transects (one burned and two unburned) were monitored periodically to evaluate the complex spatial and temporal dynamics of soil moisture and infiltration patterns. Average dry season soil moisture content was less than five percent volume water content (%VWC) for all transects, and the burned transect exhibited the lowest %VWC during the wet season. Infiltration rates displayed a high degree of spatial and temporal variability. However, the location with the highest burn severity had the lowest average infiltration rate. The observed differences between the burned and unburned transects indicate that the fire altered hydrologic processes of the landscape and reduced the ability of the soil to retain water during the wet season. This research provides the first high-resolution soil moisture and infiltration field analysis of an urban fire-disturbed stream in southern California and a method to characterize post-fire hydrologic conditions for rainfall–runoff processes. 

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