Abstract Climate-driven permafrost thaw can release ancient carbon to the atmosphere, begetting further warming in a positive feedback loop. Polar ice core data and young radiocarbon ages of dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes have challenged the importance of this feedback, but field studies did not adequately account for older methane released from permafrost through bubbling. We synthesized panarctic isotope and emissions datasets to derive integrated ages of panarctic lake methane fluxes. Methane age in modern thermokarst lakes (3132 ± 731 years before present) reflects remobilization of ancient carbon. Thermokarst-lake methane emissions fit within the constraints imposed by polar ice core data. Younger, albeit ultimately larger sources of methane from glacial lakes, estimated here, lagged those from thermokarst lakes. Our results imply that panarctic lake methane release was a small positive feedback to climate warming, comprising up to 17% of total northern hemisphere sources during the deglacial period.
more »
« less
Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process‐Based Modeling Analysis
Abstract Freshwater ecosystem contributions to the global methane budget remains the most uncertain among natural sources. With warming and accompanying carbon release from thawed permafrost and thermokarst lake expansion, the increase of methane emissions could be large. However, the impact and relative importance of various factors related to warming remain uncertain. Based on diverse lake characteristics incorporated in modeling and observational data, we calibrate and verify a lake biogeochemistry model. The model is then applied to estimate global lake methane emissions and examine the impacts of temperature increase for the first and the last decades of the 21st century under different climate scenarios. We find that current emissions are 24.0 ± 8.4 Tg CH4 yr−1from lakes larger than 0.1 km2, accounting for 11% of the global total natural source as estimated based on atmospheric inversion. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario suggest a 58%–86% growth in emissions from lakes. Our model sensitivity analysis indicates that additional carbon substrates from thawing permafrost may enhance methane production under warming in the Arctic. Warming enhanced methane oxidation in lake water can be an effective sink to reduce the net release from global lakes.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1753856
- PAR ID:
- 10419843
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
- Volume:
- 128
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2169-8953
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Thermokarst lakes accelerate deep permafrost thaw and the mobilization of previously frozen soil organic carbon. This leads to microbial decomposition and large releases of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) that enhance climate warming. However, the time scale of permafrost-carbon emissions following thaw is not well known but is important for understanding how abrupt permafrost thaw impacts climate feedback. We combined field measurements and radiocarbon dating of CH4ebullition with (a) an assessment of lake area changes delineated from high-resolution (1–2.5 m) optical imagery and (b) geophysical measurements of thaw bulbs (taliks) to determine the spatiotemporal dynamics of hotspot-seep CH4ebullition in interior Alaska thermokarst lakes. Hotspot seeps are characterized as point-sources of high ebullition that release14C-depleted CH4from deep (up to tens of meters) within lake thaw bulbs year-round. Thermokarst lakes, initiated by a variety of factors, doubled in number and increased 37.5% in area from 1949 to 2009 as climate warmed. Approximately 80% of contemporary CH4hotspot seeps were associated with this recent thermokarst activity, occurring where 60 years of abrupt thaw took place as a result of new and expanded lake areas. Hotspot occurrence diminished with distance from thermokarst lake margins. We attribute older14C ages of CH4released from hotspot seeps in older, expanding thermokarst lakes (14CCH420 079 ± 1227 years BP, mean ± standard error (s.e.m.) years) to deeper taliks (thaw bulbs) compared to younger14CCH4in new lakes (14CCH48526 ± 741 years BP) with shallower taliks. We find that smaller, non-hotspot ebullition seeps have younger14C ages (expanding lakes 7473 ± 1762 years; new lakes 4742 ± 803 years) and that their emissions span a larger historic range. These observations provide a first-order constraint on the magnitude and decadal-scale duration of CH4-hotspot seep emissions following formation of thermokarst lakes as climate warms.more » « less
-
Abstract The occurrence and magnitude of natural fossil methane (CH4) emissions in the Arctic are poorly known. Emission of geologic CH4, a potent greenhouse gas, originating beneath permafrost is of particular interest due to the potential for positive feedback to climate warming, whereby accelerated permafrost thaw releases permafrost‐trapped CH4in a future warmer climate. The development of through‐going taliks in Arctic lakes overlying hydrocarbon reservoirs is one mechanism of releasing geologically sourced, subpermafrost CH4. Here we use novel gas flux measurements, geophysical observations of the subsurface, shallow sediment coring, high‐resolution bathymetry measurements, and lake water chemistry measurements to produce a synoptic survey of the gas vent system in Esieh Lake, a northwest Alaska lake with exceedingly large geologic CH4seep emissions. We find that microbially produced fossil CH4is being vented though a narrow thaw conduit below Esieh Lake through pockmarks on the lake bottom. This is one of the highest flux geologic CH4seep fields known in the terrestrial environment and potentially the highest flux single methane seep. The poleward retreat of continuous permafrost may have implications for more subcap CH4release with increased permafrost thaw.more » « less
-
Abstract Understanding methane (CH4) emission from thermokarst lakes is crucial for predicting the impacts of abrupt thaw on the permafrost carbon-climate feedback. However, observational evidence, especially from high-altitude permafrost regions, is still scarce. Here, by combining field surveys, radio- and stable-carbon isotopic analyses, and metagenomic sequencing, we present multiple characteristics of CH4emissions from 120 thermokarst lakes in 30 clusters along a 1100 km transect on the Tibetan Plateau. We find that thermokarst lakes have high CH4emissions during the ice-free period (13.4 ± 1.5 mmol m−2d−1; mean ± standard error) across this alpine permafrost region. Ebullition constitutes 84% of CH4emissions, which are fueled primarily by young carbon decomposition through the hydrogenotrophic pathway. The relative abundances of methanogenic genes correspond to the observed CH4fluxes. Overall, multiple parameters obtained in this study provide benchmarks for better predicting the strength of permafrost carbon-climate feedback in high-altitude permafrost regions.more » « less
-
Abstract The magnitude of future emissions of greenhouse gases from the northern permafrost region depends crucially on the mineralization of soil organic carbon (SOC) that has accumulated over millennia in these perennially frozen soils. Many recent studies have used radiocarbon (14C) to quantify the release of this “old” SOC as CO2or CH4to the atmosphere or as dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC) to surface waters. We compiled ~1,90014C measurements from 51 sites in the northern permafrost region to assess the vulnerability of thawing SOC in tundra, forest, peatland, lake, and river ecosystems. We found that growing season soil14C‐CO2emissions generally had a modern (post‐1950s) signature, but that well‐drained, oxic soils had increased CO2emissions derived from older sources following recent thaw. The age of CO2and CH4emitted from lakes depended primarily on the age and quantity of SOC in sediments and on the mode of emission, and indicated substantial losses of previously frozen SOC from actively expanding thermokarst lakes. Increased fluvial export of aged DOC and POC occurred from sites where permafrost thaw caused soil thermal erosion. There was limited evidence supporting release of previously frozen SOC as CO2, CH4, and DOC from thawing peatlands with anoxic soils. This synthesis thus suggests widespread but not universal release of permafrost SOC following thaw. We show that different definitions of “old” sources among studies hamper the comparison of vulnerability of permafrost SOC across ecosystems and disturbances. We also highlight opportunities for future14C studies in the permafrost region.more » « less