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Abstract Floodplain lakes are widespread and ecologically important throughout tropical river systems, however data are rare that describe how temporal variations in hydrological, meteorological and optical conditions moderate stratification and mixing in these shallow lakes. Using time series measurements of meteorology and water‐column temperatures from 17 several day campaigns spanning two hydrological years in a representative Amazon floodplain lake, we calculated surface energy fluxes and thermal stratification, and applied and evaluated a 3‐dimensional hydrodynamic model. The model successfully simulated diel cycles in thermal structure characterized by buoyancy frequency, depth of the actively mixing layer, and other terms associated with the surface energy budget. Diurnal heating with strong stratification and nocturnal mixing were common; despite considerable heat loss at night, the strong stratification during the day meant that mixing only infrequently extended to the bottom at night. Simulations indicated that the diurnal thermocline up and downwelled creating lake‐wide differences in near‐surface temperatures and mixing depths. Infrequent full mixing creates conditions conducive to anoxia in these shallow lakes given their warm temperatures. 

Abstract The CO₂flux () from lakes to the atmosphere is a large component of the global carbon cycle and depends on the air–water CO₂concentration gradient (ΔCO₂) and the gas transfer velocity (k). Both ΔCO₂andkcan vary on multiple timescales and understanding their contributions to is important for explaining variability in fluxes and developing optimal sampling designs. We measured and ΔCO₂and derivedkfor one full ice‐free period in 18 lakes using floating chambers and estimated the contributions of ΔCO₂andkto variability. Generally,kcontributed more than ΔCO₂to short‐term (1–9 d) variability. With increased temporal period, the contribution ofkto variability decreased, and in some lakes resulted in ΔCO₂contributing more thankto variability over the full ice‐free period. Increased contribution of ΔCO₂to variability over time occurred across all lakes but was most apparent in large‐volume southern‐boreal lakes and in deeper (> 2 m) parts of lakes, whereaskwas linked to variability in shallow waters. Accordingly, knowing the variability of bothkand ΔCO₂over time and space is needed for accurate modeling of from these variables. We conclude that priority in assessments should be given to direct measurements of at multiple sites when possible, or otherwise from spatially distributed measurements of ΔCO₂combined withk‐models that incorporate spatial variability of lake thermal structure and meteorology. 

Abstract Floodplains lakes are abundant in the Amazon basin and are important methane sources to the atmosphere. Existing biogeochemical models require modifications and inclusion of hydrodynamic processes operative in shallow, warm waters to be applied to these aquatic ecosystems. We modified a 1‐dimensional process‐based, lake biogeochemical model and combined a 3‐dimensional hydrodynamic model to suit Amazon floodplains. We evaluated the combined model's performance simulating methane concentrations and fluxes and several related processes in the open lake and an embayment of a well‐studied Amazon lake. Parameters for calibration were selected through sensitivity tests using a machine learning‐based algorithm, classification, and regression trees. Comparison between simulated and measured fluxes indicate generally good agreement in seasonal patterns and magnitudes. Comparisons of near‐surface concentrations varied with no clear patterns. Simulations of methane concentrations at near‐surface and near‐bottom, and diffusive emissions are most sensitive to carbon mineralization rate, Q₁₀factors for methanogenesis and oxidation, and methane oxidation potential. Modeled rates of planktonic photosynthesis were generally lower than measurements, though simulated planktonic respiration was often similar to measurements. Simulated rates of methane oxidation were considerably lower, with a few exceptions, than measurements of methane oxidation in oxic water of the lake. Improvements of results of the linked hydrodynamic‐biogeochemical model will result from inclusion of advective transport, use of parameter values appropriate for tropical waters, especially for methane oxidation and photosynthesis, and addition of changes in hydrostatic pressure to model of ebullition. 

Abstract Extensive floodplains throughout the Amazon basin support important ecosystem services and influence global water and carbon cycles. A recent change in the hydroclimatic regime of the region, with increased rainfall in the northern portions of the basin, has produced record-breaking high water levels on the Amazon River mainstem. Yet, the implications for the magnitude and duration of floodplain inundation across the basin remain unknown. Here we leverage state-of-the-art hydrological models, supported byin-situand remote sensing observations, to show that the maximum annual inundation extent along the central Amazon increased by 26% since 1980. We further reveal increased flood duration and greater connectivity among open water areas in multiple Amazon floodplain regions. These changes in the hydrological regime of the world’s largest river system have major implications for ecology and biogeochemistry, and require rapid adaptation by vulnerable populations living along Amazonian rivers. 

Abstract Freshwater ecosystem contributions to the global methane budget remains the most uncertain among natural sources. With warming and accompanying carbon release from thawed permafrost and thermokarst lake expansion, the increase of methane emissions could be large. However, the impact and relative importance of various factors related to warming remain uncertain. Based on diverse lake characteristics incorporated in modeling and observational data, we calibrate and verify a lake biogeochemistry model. The model is then applied to estimate global lake methane emissions and examine the impacts of temperature increase for the first and the last decades of the 21st century under different climate scenarios. We find that current emissions are 24.0 ± 8.4 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹from lakes larger than 0.1 km², accounting for 11% of the global total natural source as estimated based on atmospheric inversion. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario suggest a 58%–86% growth in emissions from lakes. Our model sensitivity analysis indicates that additional carbon substrates from thawing permafrost may enhance methane production under warming in the Arctic. Warming enhanced methane oxidation in lake water can be an effective sink to reduce the net release from global lakes. 

Abstract Tropical floodplains are an important source of methane (CH₄) to the atmosphere, and ebullitive fluxes are likely to be important. We report direct measurements of CH₄ebullition in common habitats on the Amazon floodplain over two years based on floating chambers that allowed detection of bubbles, and submerged bubble traps. Ebullition was highly variable in space and time. Of the 840 floating chamber measurements (equivalent to 8,690 min of 10‐min deployments), 22% captured bubbles. Ebullitive CH₄fluxes, measured using bubble traps deployed for a total of approximately 230 days, ranged from 0 to 109 mmol CH₄m⁻² d⁻¹, with a mean of 4.4 mmol CH₄m⁻² d⁻¹. During falling water, a hydroacoustic echosounder detected bubbles in 24% of the 70‐m segments over 34 km. Ebullitive flux increased as the water level fell faster during falling water periods. In flooded forests, highest ebullitive fluxes occurred during falling water, while in open water and herbaceous plant habitats, higher ebullitive fluxes were measured during low water periods. The contribution of diffusive plus ebullitive CH₄flux represented by ebullition varied from 1% (high and rising water in open water of the lake) to 93% (falling water in flooded forests) based on bubble traps. Combining ebullitive and diffusive fluxes among habitats in relation to variations in water depth and areal coverage of aquatic habitats provides the basis for improved floodplain‐wide estimates of CH₄evasion. 

Abstract Seasonally flooded forests along tropical rivers cover extensive areas, yet the processes driving air‐water exchanges of radiatively active gases are uncertain. To quantify the controls on gas transfer velocities, we combined measurements of water‐column temperature, meteorology in the forest and adjacent open water, turbulence with an acoustic Doppler velocimeter, gas concentrations, and fluxes with floating chambers. Under cooling, measured turbulence, quantified as the rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy (ε), was similar to buoyancy flux computed from the surface energy budget, indicating convection dominated turbulence production. Under heating, turbulence was suppressed unless winds in the adjacent open water exceeded 1 m/s. Gas transfer velocities obtained from chamber measurements ranged from 1 to 5 cm/hr and were similar to or slightly less than predicted using a turbulence‐based surface renewal model computed with measuredεandεpredicted from wind and cooling. 

Computational advances reveal opportunities for more sustainable hydropower development in large transboundary river basins.