Making the most of the rapidly increasing population of gravitational-wave detections of black hole (BH) and neutron star (NS) mergers requires comparing observations with population synthesis predictions. In this work, we investigate the combined impact from the key uncertainties in population synthesis modelling of the isolated binary evolution channel: the physical processes in massive binary-star evolution and the star formation history as a function of metallicity, Z, and redshift z, $\mathcal {S}(Z,z)$. Considering these uncertainties, we create 560 different publicly available model realizations and calculate the rate and distribution characteristics of detectable BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS mergers. We find that our stellar evolution and $\mathcal {S}(Z,z)$ variations can combined impact the predicted intrinsic and detectable merger rates by factors in the range 102–104. We find that BHBH rates are dominantly impacted by $\mathcal {S}(Z,z)$ variations, NSNS rates by stellar evolution variations and BHNS rates by both. We then consider the combined impact from all uncertainties considered in this work on the detectable mass distribution shapes (chirp mass, individual masses, and mass ratio). We find that the BHNS mass distributions are predominantly impacted by massive binary-star evolution changes. For BHBH and NSNS, we find that both uncertainties are important. We also find that the shape of the delay time and birth metallicity distributions are typically dominated by the choice of $\mathcal {S}(Z,z)$ for BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS. We identify several examples of robust features in the mass distributions predicted by all 560 models, such that we expect more than 95 per cent of BHBH detections to contain a BH $\gtrsim 8\, \rm {M}_{\odot }$ and have mass ratios ≲ 4. Our work demonstrates that it is essential to consider a wide range of allowed models to study double compact object merger rates and properties. Conversely, larger observed samples could allow us to decipher currently unconstrained stages of stellar and binary evolution.
Theoretically predicted yields of elements created by the rapid neutron capture (r-)process carry potentially large uncertainties associated with incomplete knowledge of nuclear properties and approximative hydrodynamical modelling of the matter ejection processes. We present an in-depth study of the nuclear uncertainties by varying theoretical nuclear input models that describe the experimentally unknown neutron-rich nuclei. This includes two frameworks for calculating the radiative neutron capture rates and 14 different models for nuclear masses, β-decay rates, and fission properties. Our r-process nuclear network calculations are based on detailed hydrodynamical simulations of dynamically ejected material from NS–NS or NS–BH binary mergers plus the secular ejecta from BH–torus systems. The impact of nuclear uncertainties on the r-process abundance distribution and the early radioactive heating rate is found to be modest (within a factor of ∼20 for individual A > 90 abundances and a factor of 2 for the heating rate). However, the impact on the late-time heating rate is more significant and depends strongly on the contribution from fission. We witness significantly higher sensitivity to the nuclear physics input if only a single trajectory is used compared to considering ensembles with a much larger number of trajectories (ranging between 150 and 300), and the quantitative effects of the nuclear uncertainties strongly depend on the adopted conditions for the individual trajectory. We use the predicted Th/U ratio to estimate the cosmochronometric age of six metal-poor stars and find the impact of the nuclear uncertainties to be up to 2 Gyr.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10421291
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
- Volume:
- 523
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0035-8711
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 2551-2576
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract The rapid neutron capture process (
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