To survive unpredictable environmental change, many organisms adopt bet-hedging strategies that are initially costly but provide a long-term fitness benefit. The temporal extent of these deferred fitness benefits determines whether bet-hedging organisms can survive long enough to realize them. In this article, we examine a model of microbial bet hedging in which there are two paths to extinction: unpredictable environmental change and demographic stochasticity. In temporally correlated environments, these drivers of extinction select for different switching strategies. Rapid phenotype switching ensures survival in the face of unpredictable environmental change, while slower-switching organisms become extinct. However, when both switching strategies are present in the same population, then demographic stochasticity—enforced by a limited population size—leads to extinction of the faster-switching organism. As a result, we find a novel form of evolutionary suicide whereby selection in a fluctuating environment can favor bet-hedging strategies that ultimately increase the risk of extinction. Population structures with multiple subpopulations and dispersal can reduce the risk of extinction from unpredictable environmental change and shift the balance so as to facilitate the evolution of slower-switching organisms.
more »
« less
Quantifying the Selective, Stochastic, and Complementary Drivers of Institutional Evolution in Online Communities
Institutions and cultures usually evolve in response to environmental incentives. However, sometimes institutional change occurs due to stochastic drivers beyond current fitness, including drift, path dependency, blind imitation, and complementary cooperation in fluctuating environments. Disentangling the selective and stochastic components of social system change enables us to identify the key features of long-term organizational development. Evolutionary approaches provide organizational science with abundant theories to demonstrate organizational evolution by tracking beneficial or harmful features. In this study, focusing on 20,000 Minecraft communities, we measure these drivers empirically using two of the most widely applied evolutionary models: the Price equation and the bet-hedging model. As a result, we find strong selection pressure on administrative and information rules, suggesting that their positive correlation with community fitness is the main reason for their frequency change. We also find that stochastic drivers decrease the average frequency of administrative rules. The result makes sense when viewed in the context of evolutionary bet-hedging. We show through the bet-hedging result that institutional diversity contributes to the growth and stability of rules related to information, communication, and economic behaviors.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2217652
- PAR ID:
- 10423397
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Entropy
- Volume:
- 24
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 1099-4300
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1185
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Bet hedging consists of life history strategies that buffer against environmental variability by trading off immediate and long-term fitness. Delayed germination in annual plants is a classic example of bet hedging and is often invoked to explain low germination fractions. We examined whether bet hedging explains low and variable germination fractions among 20 populations of the winter annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana that experience substantial variation in reproductive success among years. Leveraging 15 years of demographic monitoring and 3 years of field germination experiments, we assessed the fitness consequences of seed banks and compared optimal germination fractions from a density-independent bet-hedging model to observed germination fractions. We did not find consistent evidence of bet hedging or the expected trade-off between arithmetic and geometric mean fitness, though delayed germination increased long-term fitness in 7 of 20 populations. Optimal germination fractions were 2 to 5 times higher than observed germination fractions, and among-population variation in germination fractions was not correlated with risks across the life cycle. Our comprehensive test suggests that bet hedging is insufficient to explain the observed germination patterns. Understanding variation in germination strategies will likely require integrating bet hedging with complementary forces shaping the evolution of delayed germination.more » « less
-
Bet hedging consists of life history strategies that buffer against environmental variability by trading off immediate and long-term fitness. Delayed germination in annual plants is a classic example of bet hedging and is often invoked to explain low germination fractions. We examined whether bet hedging explains low and variable germination fractions among 20 populations of the winter annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana that experience substantial variation in reproductive success among years. Leveraging 15 years of demographic monitoring and 3 years of field germination experiments, we assessed the fitness consequences of seed banks and compared optimal germination fractions from a density-independent bet-hedging model to observed germination fractions. We did not find consistent evidence of bet hedging or the expected trade-off between arithmetic and geometric mean fitness, although delayed germination increased long-term fitness in 7 of 20 populations. Optimal germination fractions were two to five times higher than observed germination fractions, and among-population variation in germination fractions was not correlated with risks across the life cycle. Our comprehensive test suggests that bet hedging is not sufficient to explain the observed germination patterns. Understanding variation in germination strategies will likely require integrating bet hedging with complementary forces shaping the evolution of delayed germination.more » « less
-
In environments that vary frequently and unpredictably, bet-hedgers can overtake the population. Diversifying bet-hedgers have a diverse set of offspring so that, no matter the conditions they find themselves in, at least some offspring will have high fitness. In contrast, conservative bet-hedgers have a set of offspring that all have an in-between phenotype compared to the specialists. Here, we use an evolutionary algorithm of gene regulatory networks to de novo evolve the two strategies and investigate their relative success in different parameter settings. We found that diversifying bet-hedgers almost always evolved first, but then eventually got outcompeted by conservative bet-hedgers. We argue that even though similar selection pressures apply to the two bet-hedger strategies, conservative bet-hedgers could win due to the robustness of their evolved networks, in contrast to the sensitive networks of the diversifying bet-hedgers. These results reveal an unexplored aspect of the evolution of bet-hedging that could shed more light on the principles of biological adaptation in variable environmental conditions.more » « less
-
Abstract Adaptive plasticity is expected to evolve when informative cues predict environmental variation. However, plastic responses can be maladaptive even when those cues are informative, if prediction mistakes are shared across members of a generation. These fitness costs can constrain the evolution of plasticity when initial plastic mutants use of cues of only moderate reliability. Here, we model the barriers to the evolution of plasticity produced by these constraints and show that dispersal across a metapopulation can overcome them. Constraints are also lessened, though not eliminated, when plastic responses are free to evolve gradually and in concert with increased reliability. Each of these factors be viewed as a form of bet-hedging: by lessening correlations in the fates of relatives, dispersal acts as diversifying bet-hedging, while producing submaximal responses to a cue can be understood as a conservative bet-hedging strategy. While poor information may constrain the evolution of plasticity, the opportunity for bet-hedging may predict when that constraint can be overcome. Abstract Populations may make bad predictions when when using partially reliable cues to track changing environments (left). These mistakes can render plasticity deleterious (s < 0); right) when cue reliability is low, but dispersal among demes spreads out the effects of mistakes and allows the evolution of adaptive plasticity.more » « less