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1. Development and validation of predictive models for COVID-19 outcomes in a safety-net hospital population

   https://doi.org/10.1093/jamia/ocac062  

   Hao, Boran ; Hu, Yang ; Sotudian, Shahabeddin ; Zad, Zahra ; Adams, William G. ; Assoumou, Sabrina A. ; Hsu, Heather ; Mishuris, Rebecca G. ; Paschalidis, Ioannis C. ( May 2022 , Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association)

   To develop predictive models of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes, elucidate the influence of socioeconomic factors, and assess algorithmic racial fairness using a racially diverse patient population with high social needs.

   Data included 7,102 patients with positive (RT-PCR) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 test at a safety-net system in Massachusetts. Linear and nonlinear classification methods were applied. A score based on a recurrent neural network and a transformer architecture was developed to capture the dynamic evolution of vital signs. Combined with patient characteristics, clinical variables, and hospital occupancy measures, this dynamic vital score was used to train predictive models.

   Hospitalizations can be predicted with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 92% using symptoms, hospital occupancy, and patient characteristics, including social determinants of health. Parsimonious models to predict intensive care, mechanical ventilation, and mortality that used the most recent labs and vitals exhibited AUCs of 92.7%, 91.2%, and 94%, respectively. Early predictive models, using labs and vital signs closer to admission had AUCs of 81.1%, 84.9%, and 92%, respectively.

   The most accurate models exhibit racial bias, being more likely to falsely predict that Black patients will be hospitalized. Models that are only based on the dynamic vital score exhibited accuracies close to the best parsimonious models, although the latter also used laboratories.

   This large study demonstrates that COVID-19 severity may accurately be predicted using a score that accounts for the dynamic evolution of vital signs. Further, race, social determinants of health, and hospital occupancy play an important role.

    

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2. Patient-specific COVID-19 resource utilization prediction using fusion AI model

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-021-00461-0  

   Tariq, Amara ; Celi, Leo Anthony ; Newsome, Janice M. ; Purkayastha, Saptarshi ; Bhatia, Neal Kumar ; Trivedi, Hari ; Gichoya, Judy Wawira ; Banerjee, Imon ( June 2021 , npj Digital Medicine)

   The strain on healthcare resources brought forth by the recent COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for efficient resource planning and allocation through the prediction of future consumption. Machine learning can predict resource utilization such as the need for hospitalization based on past medical data stored in electronic medical records (EMR). We conducted this study on 3194 patients (46% male with mean age 56.7 (±16.8), 56% African American, 7% Hispanic) flagged as COVID-19 positive cases in 12 centers under Emory Healthcare network from February 2020 to September 2020, to assess whether a COVID-19 positive patient’s need for hospitalization can be predicted at the time of RT-PCR test using the EMR data prior to the test. Five main modalities of EMR, i.e., demographics, medication, past medical procedures, comorbidities, and laboratory results, were used as features for predictive modeling, both individually and fused together using late, middle, and early fusion. Models were evaluated in terms of precision, recall, F1-score (within 95% confidence interval). The early fusion model is the most effective predictor with 84% overall F1-score [CI 82.1–86.1]. The predictive performance of the model drops by 6 % when using recent clinical data while omitting the long-term medical history. Feature importance analysis indicates that history of cardiovascular disease, emergency room visits in the past year prior to testing, and demographic factors are predictive of the disease trajectory. We conclude that fusion modeling using medical history and current treatment data can forecast the need for hospitalization for patients infected with COVID-19 at the time of the RT-PCR test.

    

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3. Predicting 5‐year dementia conversion in veterans with mild cognitive impairment

   https://doi.org/10.1002/dad2.12572  

   Irwin, Chase ; Tjandra, Donna ; Hu, Chengcheng ; Aggarwal, Vinod ; Lienau, Amanda ; Giordani, Bruno ; Wiens, Jenna ; Migrino, Raymond Q. ( March 2024 , Alzheimer's & Dementia: Diagnosis, Assessment & Disease Monitoring)

   Identifying mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients at risk for dementia could facilitate early interventions. Using electronic health records (EHRs), we developed a model to predict MCI to all‐cause dementia (ACD) conversion at 5 years.

   Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors of ACD conversion from EHR data in veterans with MCI. Model performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] and Brier score) was evaluated on a held‐out data subset.

   Of 59,782 MCI patients, 15,420 (25.8%) converted to ACD. The model had good discriminative performance (AUC 0.73 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72–0.74]), and calibration (Brier score 0.18 [95% CI 0.17–0.18]). Age, stroke, cerebrovascular disease, myocardial infarction, hypertension, and diabetes were risk factors, while body mass index, alcohol abuse, and sleep apnea were protective factors.

   EHR‐based prediction model had good performance in identifying 5‐year MCI to ACD conversion and has potential to assist triaging of at‐risk patients.

   Of 59,782 veterans with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), 15,420 (25.8%) converted to all‐cause dementia within 5 years.

   Electronic health record prediction models demonstrated good performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.73; Brier 0.18).

   Age and vascular‐related morbidities were predictors of dementia conversion.

   Synthetic data was comparable to real data in modeling MCI to dementia conversion.

   An electronic health record–based model using demographic and co‐morbidity data had good performance in identifying veterans who convert from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to all‐cause dementia (ACD) within 5 years.

   Increased age, stroke, cerebrovascular disease, myocardial infarction, hypertension, and diabetes were risk factors for 5‐year conversion from MCI to ACD.

   High body mass index, alcohol abuse, and sleep apnea were protective factors for 5‐year conversion from MCI to ACD.

   Models using synthetic data, analogs of real patient data that retain the distribution, density, and covariance between variables of real patient data but are not attributable to any specific patient, performed just as well as models using real patient data. This could have significant implications in facilitating widely distributed computing of health‐care data with minimized patient privacy concern that could accelerate scientific discoveries.

    

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4. Prediction of lactate concentrations after cardiac surgery using machine learning and deep learning approaches

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2023.1165912  

   Kobayashi, Yuta ; Peng, Yu-Chung ; Yu, Evan ; Bush, Brian ; Jung, Youn-Hoa ; Murphy, Zachary ; Goeddel, Lee ; Whitman, Glenn ; Venkataraman, Archana ; Brown, Charles H. ( September 2023 , Frontiers in Medicine)

   Although conventional prediction models for surgical patients often ignore intraoperative time-series data, deep learning approaches are well-suited to incorporate time-varying and non-linear data with complex interactions. Blood lactate concentration is one important clinical marker that can reflect the adequacy of systemic perfusion during cardiac surgery. During cardiac surgery and cardiopulmonary bypass, minute-level data is available on key parameters that affect perfusion. The goal of this study was to use machine learning and deep learning approaches to predict maximum blood lactate concentrations after cardiac surgery. We hypothesized that models using minute-level intraoperative data as inputs would have the best predictive performance.

   Adults who underwent cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass were eligible. The primary outcome was maximum lactate concentration within 24 h postoperatively. We considered three classes of predictive models, using the performance metric of mean absolute error across testing folds: (1) static models using baseline preoperative variables, (2) augmentation of the static models with intraoperative statistics, and (3) a dynamic approach that integrates preoperative variables with intraoperative time series data.

   2,187 patients were included. For three models that only used baseline characteristics (linear regression, random forest, artificial neural network) to predict maximum postoperative lactate concentration, the prediction error ranged from a median of 2.52 mmol/L (IQR 2.46, 2.56) to 2.58 mmol/L (IQR 2.54, 2.60). The inclusion of intraoperative summary statistics (including intraoperative lactate concentration) improved model performance, with the prediction error ranging from a median of 2.09 mmol/L (IQR 2.04, 2.14) to 2.12 mmol/L (IQR 2.06, 2.16). For two modelling approaches (recurrent neural network, transformer) that can utilize intraoperative time-series data, the lowest prediction error was obtained with a range of median 1.96 mmol/L (IQR 1.87, 2.05) to 1.97 mmol/L (IQR 1.92, 2.05). Intraoperative lactate concentration was the most important predictive feature based on Shapley additive values. Anemia and weight were also important predictors, but there was heterogeneity in the importance of other features.

   Postoperative lactate concentrations can be predicted using baseline and intraoperative data with moderate accuracy. These results reflect the value of intraoperative data in the prediction of clinically relevant outcomes to guide perioperative management.

    

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5. Quantitative analysis of visually reviewed normal scalp EEG predicts seizure freedom following anterior temporal lobectomy

   https://doi.org/10.1111/epi.17257  

   Varatharajah, Yogatheesan ; Joseph, Boney ; Brinkmann, Benjamin ; Morita‐Sherman, Marcia ; Fitzgerald, Zachary ; Vegh, Deborah ; Nair, Dileep ; Burgess, Richard ; Cendes, Fernando ; Jehi, Lara ; et al ( April 2022 , Epilepsia)

   Anterior temporal lobectomy (ATL) is a widely performed and successful intervention for drug‐resistant temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). However, up to one third of patients experience seizure recurrence within 1 year after ATL. Despite the extensive literature on presurgical electroencephalography (EEG) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) abnormalities to prognosticate seizure freedom following ATL, the value of quantitative analysis of visually reviewed normal interictal EEG in such prognostication remains unclear. In this retrospective multicenter study, we investigate whether machine learning analysis of normal interictal scalp EEG studies can inform the prediction of postoperative seizure freedom outcomes in patients who have undergone ATL.

   We analyzed normal presurgical scalp EEG recordings from 41 Mayo Clinic (MC) and 23 Cleveland Clinic (CC) patients. We used an unbiased automated algorithm to extract eyes closed awake epochs from scalp EEG studies that were free of any epileptiform activity and then extracted spectral EEG features representing (a) spectral power and (b) interhemispheric spectral coherence in frequencies between 1 and 25 Hz across several brain regions. We analyzed the differences between the seizure‐free and non–seizure‐free patients and employed a Naïve Bayes classifier using multiple spectral features to predict surgery outcomes. We trained the classifier using a leave‐one‐patient‐out cross‐validation scheme within the MC data set and then tested using the out‐of‐sample CC data set. Finally, we compared the predictive performance of normal scalp EEG‐derived features against MRI abnormalities.

   We found that several spectral power and coherence features showed significant differences correlated with surgical outcomes and that they were most pronounced in the 10–25 Hz range. The Naïve Bayes classification based on those features predicted 1‐year seizure freedom following ATL with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.78 and 0.76 for the MC and CC data sets, respectively. Subsequent analyses revealed that (a) interhemispheric spectral coherence features in the 10–25 Hz range provided better predictability than other combinations and (b) normal scalp EEG‐derived features provided superior and potentially distinct predictive value when compared with MRI abnormalities (>10% higher F1 score).

   These results support that quantitative analysis of even a normal presurgical scalp EEG may help prognosticate seizure freedom following ATL in patients with drug‐resistant TLE. Although the mechanism for this result is not known, the scalp EEG spectral and coherence properties predicting seizure freedom may represent activity arising from the neocortex or the networks responsible for temporal lobe seizure generation within vs outside the margins of an ATL.

    

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