ABSTRACT We present a phenomenological forward Monte Carlo model for forecasting the population of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in dwarf galaxies observable via their optical variability. Our model accounts for expected changes in the spectral energy distribution of AGNs in the intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) mass range and uses observational constraints on optical variability as a function of black hole (BH) mass to generate mock light curves. Adopting several different models for the BH occupation function, including one for off-nuclear IMBHs, we quantify differences in the predicted local AGN mass and luminosity functions in dwarf galaxies. As a result, we are able to model the fraction of variable AGNs as a function of important galaxy host properties, such as host galaxy stellar mass, in the presence of selection effects. We find that our adopted occupation fractions for the ‘heavy’ and ‘light’ initial BH seeding scenarios can be distinguished with variability at the 2–3σ level for galaxy host stellar masses below ∼108M⊙ with data from the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory. We also demonstrate the prevalence of a selection bias whereby recovered IMBH masses fall, on average, above the predicted value from the local host galaxy–BH mass scaling relation with the strength of this bias dependent on the survey sensitivity. Our methodology can be used more broadly to calibrate AGN demographic studies in synoptic surveys. Finally, we show that a targeted ∼ hourly cadence program over a few nights with the Rubin Observatory can provide strong constraints on IMBH masses given their expected rapid variability time-scales. 
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                            Dwarf AGNs from Optical Variability for the Origins of Seeds (DAVOS): insights from the dark energy survey deep fields
                        
                    
    
            ABSTRACT We present a sample of 706, z < 1.5 active galactic nuclei (AGNs) selected from optical photometric variability in three of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) deep fields (E2, C3, and X3) over an area of 4.64 deg2. We construct light curves using difference imaging aperture photometry for resolved sources and non-difference imaging PSF photometry for unresolved sources, respectively, and characterize the variability significance. Our DES light curves have a mean cadence of 7 d, a 6-yr baseline, and a single-epoch imaging depth of up to g ∼ 24.5. Using spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting, we find 26 out of total 706 variable galaxies are consistent with dwarf galaxies with a reliable stellar mass estimate ($$M_{\ast }\lt 10^{9.5}\, {\rm M}_\odot$$; median photometric redshift of 0.9). We were able to constrain rapid characteristic variability time-scales (∼ weeks) using the DES light curves in 15 dwarf AGN candidates (a subset of our variable AGN candidates) at a median photometric redshift of 0.4. This rapid variability is consistent with their low black hole (BH) masses. We confirm the low-mass AGN nature of one source with a high S/N optical spectrum. We publish our catalogue, optical light curves, and supplementary data, such as X-ray properties and optical spectra, when available. We measure a variable AGN fraction versus stellar mass and compare to results from a forward model. This work demonstrates the feasibility of optical variability to identify AGNs with lower BH masses in deep fields, which may be more ‘pristine’ analogues of supermassive BH seeds. 
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                            - Award ID(s):
- 2108162
- PAR ID:
- 10425074
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
- Volume:
- 516
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0035-8711
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 2736 to 2756
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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