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Abstract Predicting rain from large-scale environmental variables remains a challenging problem for climate models and it is unclear how well numerical methods can predict the true characteristics of rainfall without smaller (storm) scale information. This study explores the ability of three statistical and machine learning methods to predict 3-hourly rain occurrence and intensity at 0.5° resolution over the tropical Pacific Ocean using rain observations the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite radar and large-scale environmental profiles of temperature and moisture from the MERRA-2 reanalysis. We also separated the rain into different types (deep convective, stratiform, and shallow convective) because of their varying kinematic and thermodynamic structures that might respond to the large-scale environment in different ways. Our expectation was that the popular machine learning methods (i.e., the neural network and random forest) would outperform a standard statistical method (a generalized linear model) because of their more flexible structures, especially in predicting the highly skewed distribution of rain rates for each rain type. However, none of the methods obviously distinguish themselves from one another and each method still has issues with predicting rain too often and not fully capturing the high end of the rain rate distributions, both of which are common problems in climate models. One implication of this study is that machine learning tools must be carefully assessed and are not necessarily applicable to solving all big data problems. Another implication is that traditional climate model approaches are not sufficient to predict extreme rain events and that other avenues need to be pursued.
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Demystifying image-based machine learning: a practical guide to automated analysis of field imagery using modern machine learning tools
Image-based machine learning methods are becoming among the most widely-used forms of data analysis across science, technology, engineering, and industry. These methods are powerful because they can rapidly and automatically extract rich contextual and spatial information from images, a process that has historically required a large amount of human labor. A wide range of recent scientific applications have demonstrated the potential of these methods to change how researchers study the ocean. However, despite their promise, machine learning tools are still under-exploited in many domains including species and environmental monitoring, biodiversity surveys, fisheries abundance and size estimation, rare event and species detection, the study of animal behavior, and citizen science. Our objective in this article is to provide an approachable, end-to-end guide to help researchers apply image-based machine learning methods effectively to their own research problems. Using a case study, we describe how to prepare data, train and deploy models, and overcome common issues that can cause models to underperform. Importantly, we discuss how to diagnose problems that can cause poor model performance on new imagery to build robust tools that can vastly accelerate data acquisition in the marine realm. Code to perform analyses is provided at https://github.com/heinsense2/AIO_CaseStudy .
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- PAR ID:
- 10426896
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Marine Science
- Volume:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 2296-7745
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1157370
