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1. Can machine learning reveal precursors of reversals of the geomagnetic axial dipole field?

   https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac195  

   Gwirtz, K. ; Davis, T. ; Morzfeld, M. ; Constable, C. ; Fournier, A. ; Hulot, G. ( May 2022 , Geophysical Journal International)

   It is well known that the axial dipole part of Earth’s magnetic field reverses polarity, so that the magnetic North Pole becomes the South Pole and vice versa. The timing of reversals is well documented for the past 160 Myr, but the conditions that lead to a reversal are still not well understood. It is not known if there are reliable ‘precursors’ of reversals (events that indicate that a reversal is upcoming) or what they might be. We investigate if machine learning (ML) techniques can reliably identify precursors of reversals based on time-series of the axial magnetic dipole field. The basic idea is to train a classifier using segments of time-series of the axial magnetic dipole. This training step requires modification of standard ML techniques to account for the fact that we are interested in rare events—a reversal is unusual, while a non-reversing field is the norm. Without our tweak, the ML classifiers lead to useless predictions. Perhaps even more importantly, the usable observational record is limited to 0–2 Ma and contains only five reversals, necessitating that we determine if the data are even sufficient to reliably train and validate an ML algorithm. To answer these questions we use several ML classifiers (linear/non-linear support vector machines and long short-term memory networks), invoke a hierarchy of numerical models (from simplified models to 3-D geodynamo simulations), and two palaeomagnetic reconstructions (PADM2M and Sint-2000). The performance of the ML classifiers varies across the models and the observational record and we provide evidence that this is not an artefact of the numerics, but rather reflects how ‘predictable’ a model or observational record is. Studying models of Earth’s magnetic field via ML classifiers thus can help with identifying shortcomings or advantages of the various models. For Earth’s magnetic field, we conclude that the ability of ML to identify precursors of reversals is limited, largely due to the small amount and low frequency resolution of data, which makes training and subsequent validation nearly impossible. Put simply: the ML techniques we tried are not currently capable of reliably identifying an axial dipole moment (ADM) precursor for geomagnetic reversals. This does not necessarily imply that such a precursor does not exist, and improvements in temporal resolution and length of ADM records may well offer better prospects in the future.

    

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2. Excitation of high-latitude MAC waves in Earth’s core

   https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad047  

   Nicolas, Quentin ; Buffett, Bruce ( February 2023 , Geophysical Journal International)

   Recent geomagnetic observations reveal localized oscillations in the field’s secular acceleration at high latitudes, with periods of about 20 yr. Several types of waves in rotating magnetized fluids have been proposed to explain equatorial oscillations with similar high frequencies. Among these are non-axisymmetric Alfvén waves, magneto-Coriolis waves and, in the presence of fluid stratification, magnetic-Archimedes–Coriolis (MAC) waves. We explore the hypothesis that the observed high latitude patterns are the signature of MAC waves by modelling their generation in Earth’s core. We quantitatively assess several generation mechanisms using output from dynamo simulations in a theoretical framework due to Lighthill. While the spatio-temporal structure of the sources from the dynamo simulations are expected to be realistic, their amplitudes are extrapolated to reflect differences between the simulation’s parameter space and Earth-like conditions. We estimate full wave spectra spanning monthly to centennial frequencies for three plausible excitation sources: thermal fluctuations, Lorentz force and magnetic induction. When focusing on decadal frequencies, the Lorentz force appears to be most effective in generating high-latitude MAC waves with amplitude estimates falling within an order of magnitude of observed oscillations. Overall, this study puts forward MAC waves as a viable explanation, in the presence of fluid stratification at the top of Earth’s core, for observed field variations at high latitudes.

    

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3. Extending Global Continuous Geomagnetic Field Reconstructions on Timescales Beyond Human Civilization

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GC007966  

   Panovska, S. ; Constable, C. G. ; Korte, M. ( December 2018 , Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems)

   Study of the late Quaternary geomagnetic field contributes significantly to understanding the origin of millennial‐scale paleomagnetic secular variations, the structure of geomagnetic excursions, and the long‐term shielding by the geomagnetic field. A compilation of paleomagnetic sediment records and archeomagnetic and lava flow data covering the past 100 ka enables reconstruction of the global geomagnetic field on such long‐term scales. We use regularized inversion to build the first global, time‐dependent, geomagnetic field model spanning the past 100 ka, namedGGF100k(GlobalGeomagneticField over the past100 ka). Spatial parametrization of the model is in spherical harmonics and time variations with cubic splines. The model is heavily constrained by more than 100 continuous sediment records covering extended periods of time, which strongly prevail over the limited number of discrete snapshots provided by archeomagnetic and volcanic data. Following an assessment of temporal resolution in each sediment's magnetic record, we have introduced smoothing kernels into the forward modeling when assessing data misfit. This accommodates the smoothing inherent in the remanence acquisition in individual sediment paleomagnetic records, facilitating a closer fit to both high‐ and low‐resolution records in regions where some sediments have variable temporal resolutions. The model has similar spatial resolution but less temporal complexity than current Holocene geomagnetic field models. Using the new reconstruction, we discuss dipole moment variations, the time‐averaged field, and paleomagnetic secular variation activity. The new GGF100k model fills the gap in the geomagnetic power spectrum in the frequency range 100–1,000 Ma⁻¹.

    

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4. A comprehensive model for the kyr and Myr time scales of Earth's axial magnetic dipole field

   https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2018-42  

   Morzfeld, Matthias ; Buffett, Bruce A. ( July 2019 , Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Discussions)

   We consider a stochastic differential equation model for Earth's axial magnetic dipole field. The model's parameters are estimated using diverse and independent data sources that had previously been treated separately. The result is a numerical model that is informed by the full paleomagnetic record on kyr to Myr time scales and whose outputs match data of Earth's dipole in a precisely defined feature-based sense. Specifically, we compute model parameters and associated uncertainties that lead to model outputs that match spectral data of Earth's axial magnetic dipole field but our approach also reveals difficulties with simultaneously matching spectral data and reversal rates. This could be due to model deficiencies or inaccuracies in the limited amount of data. More generally, the approach we describe can be seen as an example of an effective strategy for combining diverse data sets that is particularly useful when the amount of data is limited. 

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5. Energetic Electron Precipitation Driven by Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves from ELFIN’s Low Altitude Perspective

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-023-00984-w  

   Angelopoulos, V. ; Zhang, X. -J. ; Artemyev, A. V. ; Mourenas, D. ; Tsai, E. ; Wilkins, C. ; Runov, A. ; Liu, J. ; Turner, D. L. ; Li, W. ; et al ( July 2023 , Space Science Reviews)

   We review comprehensive observations of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave-driven energetic electron precipitation using data collected by the energetic electron detector on the Electron Losses and Fields InvestigatioN (ELFIN) mission, two polar-orbiting low-altitude spinning CubeSats, measuring 50-5000 keV electrons with good pitch-angle and energy resolution. EMIC wave-driven precipitation exhibits a distinct signature in energy-spectrograms of the precipitating-to-trapped flux ratio: peaks at >0.5 MeV which are abrupt (bursty) (lasting ∼17 s, or$\Delta L\sim 0.56$$\Delta L\sim 0.56$) with significant substructure (occasionally down to sub-second timescale). We attribute the bursty nature of the precipitation to the spatial extent and structuredness of the wave field at the equator. Multiple ELFIN passes over the same MLT sector allow us to study the spatial and temporal evolution of the EMIC wave - electron interaction region. Case studies employing conjugate ground-based or equatorial observations of the EMIC waves reveal that the energy of moderate and strong precipitation at ELFIN approximately agrees with theoretical expectations for cyclotron resonant interactions in a cold plasma. Using multiple years of ELFIN data uniformly distributed in local time, we assemble a statistical database of ∼50 events of strong EMIC wave-driven precipitation. Most reside at$L\sim 5-7$$L\sim 5-7$at dusk, while a smaller subset exists at$L\sim 8-12$$L\sim 8-12$at post-midnight. The energies of the peak-precipitation ratio and of the half-peak precipitation ratio (our proxy for the minimum resonance energy) exhibit an$L$$L$-shell dependence in good agreement with theoretical estimates based on prior statistical observations of EMIC wave power spectra. The precipitation ratio’s spectral shape for the most intense events has an exponential falloff away from the peak (i.e., on either side of$\sim 1.45$$\sim 1.45$MeV). It too agrees well with quasi-linear diffusion theory based on prior statistics of wave spectra. It should be noted though that this diffusive treatment likely includes effects from nonlinear resonant interactions (especially at high energies) and nonresonant effects from sharp wave packet edges (at low energies). Sub-MeV electron precipitation observed concurrently with strong EMIC wave-driven >1 MeV precipitation has a spectral shape that is consistent with efficient pitch-angle scattering down to ∼ 200-300 keV by much less intense higher frequency EMIC waves at dusk (where such waves are most frequent). At ∼100 keV, whistler-mode chorus may be implicated in concurrent precipitation. These results confirm the critical role of EMIC waves in driving relativistic electron losses. Nonlinear effects may abound and require further investigation.

    

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