Abstract A large sample of active-region-targeted time-series images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), the AIA Active Region Patch database (Paper I) is used to investigate whether parameters describing the coronal, transition region, and chromospheric emission can differentiate a region that will imminently produce a solar flare from one that will not. Parameterizations based on moment analysis of direct and running-difference images provide for physically interpretable results from nonparametric discriminant analysis. Across four event definitions including both 24 hr and 6 hr validity periods, 160 image-based parameters capture the general state of the atmosphere, rapid brightness changes, and longer-term intensity evolution. We find top Brier Skill Scores in the 0.07–0.33 range, True Skill Statistics in the 0.68–0.82 range (both depending on event definition), and Receiver Operating Characteristic Skill Scores above 0.8. Total emission can perform notably, as can steeply increasing or decreasing brightness, although mean brightness measures do not, demonstrating the well-known active-region size/flare productivity relation. Once a region is flare productive, the active-region coronal plasma appears to stay hot. The 94 Å filter data provide the most parameters with discriminating power, with indications that it benefits from sampling multiple physical regimes. In particular, classification success using higher-order moments of running-difference images indicate a propensity for flare-imminent regions to display short-lived small-scale brightening events. Parameters describing the evolution of the corona can provide flare-imminent indicators, but at no preference over “static” parameters. Finally, all parameters and NPDA-derived probabilities are available to the community for additional research.
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Dominance of Bursty over Steady Heating of the 4–8 MK Coronal Plasma in a Solar Active Region: Quantification Using Maps of Minimum, Maximum, and Average Brightness
Abstract A challenge in characterizing active region (AR) coronal heating is in separating transient (bursty) loop heating from the diffuse background (steady) heating. We present a method of quantifying coronal heating’s bursty and steady components in ARs, applying it to Fe xviii (hot 94) emission of an AR observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. The maximum-, minimum-, and average-brightness values for each pixel, over a 24 hr period, yield a maximum-brightness map, a minimum-brightness map, and an average-brightness map of the AR. Running sets of such three maps come from repeating this process for each time step of running windows of 20, 16, 12, 8, 5, 3, 1, and 0.5 hr. From each running window’s set of three maps, we obtain the AR’s three corresponding luminosity light curves. We find (1) the time-averaged ratio of minimum-brightness-map luminosity to average-brightness-map luminosity increases as the time window decreases, and the time-averaged ratio of maximum-brightness-map luminosity to average-brightness-map luminosity decreases as the window decreases; (2) for the 24 hr window, the minimum-brightness map’s luminosity is 5% of the average-brightness map’s luminosity, indicating that at most 5% of the AR’s hot 94 luminosity is from heating that is steady for 24 hr; (3) this upper limit on the fraction of the hot 94 luminosity from steady heating increases to 33% for the 30 minute running window. This requires that the heating of the 4–8 MK plasma in this AR is mostly in bursts lasting less than 30 minutes: at most a third of the heating is steady for 30 minutes.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1950831
- PAR ID:
- 10429050
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Volume:
- 942
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0004-637X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 2
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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