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Increasing summer temperatures and higher probabilities of extreme heat events have led to concerns about tree damage and mortality. However, insufficient attention has been given to conditions leading to heat-related regeneration failures in temperate forests. To address this, managers need to understand how microclimate varies under a range of overstory conditions. We measured air temperatures at 2 cm above-ground underneath a gradient of canopy cover on south-facing slopes in recently thinned Douglas-fir stands in western Oregon, USA. To expand the ecological relevance of these data to impacts on regeneration, we created the stress degree hours (SDH) metric, representing the amount of time—and by how much—temperatures exceeded biologically relevant stress thresholds. Overall, for every 10% increase in canopy cover, maximum temperatures at 2 cm were 1.3 °C lower, the odds of temperatures exceeding stress thresholds for conifer regeneration declined by a multiplicative factor of 0.26, and the total of SDH decreased by 40%. These reductions are large enough to be worthy of attention when managing for tree regeneration. However, data collected during the Pacific Northwest Heat Dome in June 2021 indicate that with various climate change scenarios and heatwave occurrences, temperatures will be unfavorable for regeneration regardless of overstory cover.
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A multiscale analysis of heatwaves and urban heat islands in the western U.S. during the summer of 2021
Abstract Extreme heat events are occurring more frequently and with greater intensity due to climate change. They result in increased heat stress to populations causing human health impacts and heat-related deaths. The urban environment can also exacerbate heat stress because of man-made materials and increased population density. Here we investigate the extreme heatwaves in the western U.S. during the summer of 2021. We show the atmospheric scale interactions and spatiotemporal dynamics that contribute to increased temperatures across the region for both urban and rural environments. In 2021, daytime maximum temperatures during heat events in eight major cities were 10–20 °C higher than the 10-year average maximum temperature. We discuss the temperature impacts associated with processes across scales: climate or long-term change, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, synoptic high-pressure systems, mesoscale ocean/lake breezes, and urban climate (i.e., urban heat islands). Our findings demonstrate the importance of scale interactions impacting extreme heat and the need for holistic approaches in heat mitigation strategies.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2048423
- PAR ID:
- 10429555
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Reports
- Volume:
- 13
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2045-2322
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Many cities are experiencing increases in extreme heat because of global temperature rise combined with the urban heat island effect. The heterogeneity of urban morphology also leads to fine-scale variability in potential for heat exposure. Yet, how this rise in temperature and local variability together impacts urban residents differently at exposure-relevant scales is still not clear. Here we map the Universal Thermal Climate Index, a more complete indicator of human heat stress at an unprecedentedly fine spatial resolution (1 m), for 14 major cities in the United States using urban microclimate modeling. We examined the different heat exposure levels across different socioeconomic and racial/ethnic groups in these cities, finding that income level is most consistently associated with heat stress. We further conducted scenario simulations for a hypothetical 1 °C increase of air temperature in all cities. Results show that a 1 °C increase would have a substantial impact on human heat stress, with impacts that differ across cities. The results of this study can help us better evaluate the impact of extreme heat on urban residents at decision-relevant scales.more » « less
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-35621-7
