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1. Heliophysics and space weather science at ∼1.5 AU: Knowledge gaps and need for space weather monitors at Mars

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2023.1064208  

   Lee, Christina O. ; Sánchez-Cano, Beatriz ; DiBraccio, Gina A. ; Mayyasi, Majd ; Xu, Shaosui ; Chamberlin, Phillip ; Davies, Emma ; Scolini, Camilla ; Filwett, Rachael J. ; Ramstad, Robin ; et al ( February 2023 , Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences)

   This perspective article discusses the knowledge gaps and open questions regarding the solar and interplanetary drivers of space weather conditions experienced at Mars during active and quiescent solar periods, and the need for continuous, routine observations to address them. For both advancing science and as part of the strategic planning for human exploration at Mars by the late 2030s, now is the time to consider a network of upstream space weather monitors at Mars. Our main recommendations for the heliophysics community are the following: 1. Support the advancement for understanding heliophysics and space weather science at ∼1.5 AU and continue the support of planetary science payloads and missions that provide such measurements. 2. Prioritize an upstream Mars L1 monitor and/or areostationary orbiters for providing dedicated, continuous observations of solar activity and interplanetary conditions at ∼1.5 AU. 3. Establish new or support existing 1) joint efforts between federal agencies and their divisions and 2) international collaborations to carry out #1 and #2. 

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2. Modeling the Geomagnetic Response to the September 2017 Space Weather Event Over Fennoscandia Using the Space Weather Modeling Framework: Studying the Impacts of Spatial Resolution

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002683  

   Dimmock, A. P. ; Welling, D. T. ; Rosenqvist, L. ; Forsyth, C. ; Freeman, M. P. ; Rae, I. J. ; Viljanen, A. ; Vandegriff, E. ; Boynton, R. J. ; Balikhin, M. A. ; et al ( May 2021 , Space Weather)

   We must be able to predict and mitigate against geomagnetically induced current (GIC) effects to minimize socio‐economic impacts. This study employs the space weather modeling framework (SWMF) to model the geomagnetic response over Fennoscandia to the September 7–8, 2017 event. Of key importance to this study is the effects of spatial resolution in terms of regional forecasts and improved GIC modeling results. Therefore, we ran the model at comparatively low, medium, and high spatial resolutions. The virtual magnetometers from each model run are compared with observations from the IMAGE magnetometer network across various latitudes and over regional‐scales. The virtual magnetometer data from the SWMF are coupled with a local ground conductivity model which is used to calculate the geoelectric field and estimate GICs in a Finnish natural gas pipeline. This investigation has lead to several important results in which higher resolution yielded: (1) more realistic amplitudes and timings of GICs, (2) higher amplitude geomagnetic disturbances across latitudes, and (3) increased regional variations in terms of differences between stations. Despite this, substorms remain a significant challenge to surface magnetic field prediction from global magnetohydrodynamic modeling. For example, in the presence of multiple large substorms, the associated large‐amplitude depressions were not captured, which caused the largest model‐data deviations. The results from this work are of key importance to both modelers and space weather operators. Particularly when the goal is to obtain improved regional forecasts of geomagnetic disturbances and/or more realistic estimates of the geoelectric field.

    

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3. Space Radiation and Plasma Effects on Satellites and Aviation: Quantities and Metrics for Tracking Performance of Space Weather Environment Models

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002042  

   Zheng, Yihua ; Ganushkina, Natalia Yu ; Jiggens, Pier ; Jun, Insoo ; Meier, Matthias ; Minow, Joseph I. ; O'Brien, T. Paul ; Pitchford, Dave ; Shprits, Yuri ; Tobiska, W. Kent ; et al ( October 2019 , Space Weather)

   The Community Coordinated Modeling Center has been leading community‐wide space science and space weather model validation projects for many years. These efforts have been broadened and extended via the newly launched International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/). Its objective is to track space weather models' progress and performance over time, a capability that is critically needed in space weather operations and different user communities in general. The Space Radiation and Plasma Effects Working Team of the aforementioned International Forum works on one of the many focused evaluation topics and deals with five different subtopics (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/topics/radiation‐all.php) and varieties of particle populations: Surface Charging from tens of eV to 50‐keV electrons and internal charging due to energetic electrons from hundreds keV to several MeVs. Single‐event effects from solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays (several MeV to TeV), total dose due to accumulation of doses from electrons (>100 keV) and protons (>1 MeV) in a broad energy range, and radiation effects from solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays at aviation altitudes. A unique aspect of the Space Radiation and Plasma Effects focus area is that it bridges the space environments, engineering, and user communities. The intent of the paper is to provide an overview of the current status and to suggest a guide for how to best validate space environment models for operational/engineering use, which includes selection of essential space environment and effect quantities and appropriate metrics.

    

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4. Communicating Uncertainty and Reliability in Space Weather Data, Models, and Applications

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002083  

   Knipp, Delores J. ; Hapgood, Michael A. ; Welling, Daniel ( October 2018 , Space Weather)

   Space Weather Journal editors advocate for discussion of uncertainty and reliability in future journal manuscripts and throughout the space weather enterprise.

    

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5. Space weather disrupts nocturnal bird migration

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2306317120  

   Gulson-Castillo, Eric R. ; Van Doren, Benjamin M. ; Bui, Michelle X. ; Horton, Kyle G. ; Li, Jing ; Moldwin, Mark B. ; Shedden, Kerby ; Welling, Daniel T. ; Winger, Benjamin M. ( October 2023 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Space weather, including solar storms, can impact Earth by disturbing the geomagnetic field. Despite the known dependence of birds and other animals on geomagnetic cues for successful seasonal migrations, the potential effects of space weather on organisms that use Earth’s magnetic field for navigation have received little study. We tested whether space weather geomagnetic disturbances are associated with disruptions to bird migration at a macroecological scale. We leveraged long-term radar data to characterize the nightly migration dynamics of the nocturnally migrating North American avifauna over 22 y. We then used concurrent magnetometer data to develop a local magnetic disturbance index associated with each radar station (ΔBmax), facilitating spatiotemporally explicit analyses of the relationship between migration and geomagnetic disturbance. After controlling for effects of atmospheric weather and spatiotemporal patterns, we found a 9 to 17% decrease in migration intensity in both spring and fall during severe space weather events. During fall migration, we also found evidence for decreases in effort flying against the wind, which may represent a depression of active navigation such that birds drift more with the wind during geomagnetic disturbances. Effort flying against the wind in the fall was most reduced under both overcast conditions and high geomagnetic disturbance, suggesting that a combination of obscured celestial cues and magnetic disturbance may disrupt navigation. Collectively, our results provide evidence for community-wide avifaunal responses to geomagnetic disturbances driven by space weather during nocturnal migration.

    

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