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Change to global climate, including both its progressive character and episodic extremes, constitutes a critical societal challenge. We apply here a framework to analyze Climate-induced Extremes on the Food, Energy, Water System Nexus (C-FEWS), with particular emphasis on the roles and sensitivities of traditionally-engineered (TEI) and nature-based (NBI) infrastructures. The rationale and technical specifications for the overall C-FEWS framework, its component models and supporting datasets are detailed in an accompanying paper (Vörösmarty et al., this issue). We report here on initial results produced by applying this framework in two important macro-regions of the United States (Northeast, NE; Midwest, MW), where major decisions affecting global food production, biofuels, energy security and pollution abatement require critical scientific support. We present the essential FEWS-related hypotheses that organize our work with an overview of the methodologies and experimental designs applied. We report on initial C-FEWS framework results using five emblematic studies that highlight how various combinations of climate sensitivities, TEI-NBI deployments, technology, and environmental management have determined regional FEWS performance over a historical time period (1980–2019). Despite their relative simplicity, these initial scenario experiments yielded important insights. We found that FEWS performance was impacted by climate stress, but the sensitivity was strongly modified by technology choices applied to both ecosystems (e.g., cropland production using new cultivars) and engineered systems (e.g., thermoelectricity from different fuels and cooling types). We tabulated strong legacy effects stemming from decisions on managing NBI (e.g., multi-decade land conversions that limit long-term carbon sequestration). The framework also enabled us to reveal how broad-scale policies aimed at a particular net benefit can result in unintended and potentially negative consequences. For example, tradeoff modeling experiments identified the regional importance of TEI in the form wastewater treatment and NBI via aquatic self-purification. This finding, in turn, could be used to guide potential investments in point and/or non-point source water pollution control. Another example used a reduced complexity model to demonstrate a FEWS tradeoff in the context of water supply, electricity production, and thermal pollution. Such results demonstrated the importance of TEI and NBI in jointly determining historical FEWS performance, their vulnerabilities, and their resilience to extreme climate events. These infrastructures, plus technology and environmental management, constitute the “policy levers” which can actively be engaged to mitigate the challenge of contemporary and future climate change.
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Simulating basin-scale linkages of the food-energy-water nexus with reduced complexity modeling
There is a rapidly growing need to communicate to the public and policymakers on the nature and impact of climate change and its associated extremes, which manifest themselves across essential Food-Energy-Water Systems (FEWS). The complexity of this nexus demands analytical tools that can capture the essence of FEWS with the climate system, which may be difficult to stage and implement from a computationally efficient point-of-view. Reduced Complexity Models (RCMs) can synthesize important facets of a system quickly and with less dependence on difficult-to-assign inputs. We report on the development of an RCM framework for the FEWS nexus, to serve as a basic research tool in facilitating parameter sensitivity experiments as well as a means to establish more insightful dialogue with stakeholders through joint scenario construction. Three stand-alone and coupled models at the basin scale have been configured using Stella Architect software to simulate: 1) major flows and storage of water, 2) power plant operations and subsequent impacts on river reaches; and 3) nitrogen (N) mobilization and transport from atmospheric and landmass sources to riverine receiving waters. The Delaware River Basin is chosen for a contemporary simulation test case. Modeled results are calibrated and validated using observed stream gauge data, indicating reliable model performance at the monthly and annual time steps (0.57 < NSE < 0.98). A set of single and multi-factor climate, technology, and policy experiments are then explored using the RCM framework. Basin-scale system sensitivities are investigated across a set of intensified climate extremes, revealing the crucial roles of sewage treatment and energy infrastructure for climate resilience, significant exacerbations as well as mitigations of thermal and N pollution under opposing climate extremes, and important tradeoffs between river temperature and electricity production that are explored with technology and policy scenarios.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1856012
- PAR ID:
- 10430672
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Environmental Science
- Volume:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 2296-665X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1077181
