Abstract Snow sublimating in dry air is a forecasting challenge and can delay the onset of surface snowfall and affect storm-total accumulations. Despite this, it remains comparatively less studied than other microphysical processes. Herein, the characteristics of sublimating snow and the potential for nowcasting snowfall reaching the surface are explored through the use of dual-polarization radar. Twelve cases featuring prolific sublimation were analyzed using range-defined quasi-vertical profiles (RDQVPs) and compared with environmental model analyses. Overall, reflectivity Z significantly decreases, differential reflectivity Z DR slightly decreases, and copolar-correlation coefficient ρ hv remains nearly constant through the sublimation layer. Regions of enhanced specific differential phase K dp were frequently observed in the sublimation layer and are believed to be polarimetric evidence of secondary ice production via sublimation. A 1D bin model was initialized using particle size distributions retrieved from the RDQVPs using numerous novel polarimetric snowretrieval relations for a wide range of forecast lead times, with the model environment evolving in response to sublimation. It was found that the model was largely able to predict the snowfall start time up to six hours in advance, with a 6-h median bias of just -18.5 minutes. A more detailed case study of the 08 December 2013 snowstorm in the Philadelphia region was also performed, demonstrating good correspondence with observations and examples of model fields (e.g., cooling rate) hypothetically available from such a tool. The proof-of-concept results herein demonstrate the potential benefits of incorporating spatially averaged radar data in conjunction with simple 1D models into the nowcasting process.
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Impacts of Vertical Nonuniform Beam Filling on the Observability of Secondary Ice Production due to Sublimation
Abstract Quasi-vertical profiles (QVPs) of polarimetric radar data have emerged as a powerful tool for studying precipitation microphysics. Various studies have found enhancements in specific differential phase K dp in regions of suspected secondary ice production (SIP) due to rime splintering. Similar K dp enhancements have also been found in regions of sublimating snow, another proposed SIP process. This work explores these K dp signatures for two cases of sublimating snow using nearly collocated S- and Ka-band radars. The presence of the signature was inconsistent between the radars, prompting exploration of alternative causes. Idealized simulations are performed using a radar beam-broadening model to explore the impact of nonuniform beam filling (NBF) on the observed reflectivity Z and K dp within the sublimation layer. Rather than an intrinsic increase in ice concentration, the observed K dp enhancements can instead be explained by NBF in the presence of sharp vertical gradients of Z and K dp within the sublimation zone, which results in a K dp bias dipole. The severity of the bias is sensitive to the Z gradient and radar beamwidth and elevation angle, which explains its appearance at only one radar. In addition, differences in scanning strategies and range thresholds during QVP processing can constructively enhance these positive K dp biases by excluding the negative portion of the dipole. These results highlight the need to consider NBF effects in regions not traditionally considered (e.g., in pure snow) due to the increased K dp fidelity afforded by QVPs and the subsequent ramifications this has on the observability of sublimational SIP. Significance Statement Many different processes can cause snowflakes to break apart into numerous tiny pieces, including when they evaporate into dry air. Purported evidence of this phenomenon has been seen in data from some weather radars, but we noticed it was not seen in data from others. In this work we use case studies and models to show that this signature may actually be an artifact from the radar beam becoming too big and there being too much variability of the precipitation within it. While this breakup process may actually be occurring in reality, these results suggest we may have trouble observing it with typical weather radars.
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- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10433094
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology
- Volume:
- 40
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0739-0572
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 65 to 84
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-22-0076.1
