Collecting public opinion data is challenging in the shadow of war. And yet accurate
public opinion is crucial. Political elites rely on it and often attempt to influence it. Therefore, it is
incumbent on researchers to provide independent and reliable wartime polls. However, surveying
in wartime presents a distinctive set of challenges. We outline two challenges facing polling in war:
under-coverage and response bias. We highlight these challenges in the context of the Russia–
Ukraine war, drawing on original panel survey data tracing the attitudes of the same people prior
to and after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. We conclude with some lessons for
those employing survey methods in wartime, and point to steps forward, in Ukraine and beyond.
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How reliable are polls in Wartime Ukraine
Ukraine is a very large and diverse country, and the least we can do amidst the massive trauma of Russia’s invasion is to acknowledge and respect its socio-cultural and
geographic complexity. While there is strong evidence that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shifted public opinion towards the West, researchers have an obligation to convey the difficulties in gathering sensitive survey data in war zones and, thus, temper how data are generalized and represented in public discourse. This requires nuance when discussing the preferences of Ukrainians from all areas, including those in exile or living under Russian control, and greater efforts to communicate uncertainty.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1759645
- PAR ID:
- 10433574
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- PONARS Policy Memo
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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