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We examine why public support for democracy in Ukraine increased after Russia’s 2014 intervention and surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion—despite concerns that the wartime quest for security would diminish support for political freedoms. We statistically analyze original data generated as part of annual opinion surveys by the Institute of Sociology at Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences in 2017 (N = 2,199), 2018 (N = 1,800), and a 2021–22 panel survey with the same respondents (N = 475) interviewed before and after Russia’s invasion. Our findings indicate that wartime support for democracy is in significant respectsgeosocietal—arising from the mobilization of civic national identity conditioned by salient geopolitical threats. Civic pride, attribution of threat to an external authoritarian aggressor, and war onset were the strongest and most robust predictors of multiple democracy support indicators, overriding personal loss and stress. The findings call for more attention to the interaction of geopolitical and social contexts shaping political attitudes, with implications for democratic futures globally.
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Victory-in-freedom: Ukraine’s democratic resilience in the face of war
The article offers a rare systematic analysis of political attitudes in societies experiencing massive military invasions using statistical analysis of two original surveys conducted by the Ukraine National Academy of Sciences Institute of Sociology — a panel survey tracking the same respondents in three waves (N = 329, November 2021, June-July 2022, and June 2023) and an additional larger survey (N = 869, June 2023). Despite devastating suffering, Ukrainians’ support for democracy as a political system and for freedom of speech have stayed remarkably resilient over this time period. Cross-sectional (multiple ordinary least squares regression) and longitudinal (linear mixed-effects model regression) tests, as well as supplementary focus group conversations in all of Ukraine’s macro-regions, show that this democratic resilience is grounded in the victory-in-freedom synergy — a widespread sense of shared sacrifice that drives determination to win the war and restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity. In particular, we found a clearer understanding of the importance of political freedoms and fighting for victory among individuals who experienced loss and trauma and a strong appreciation across Ukraine’s society that victory is vital to preserve democracy. Survey data also demonstrates that democracy support has become more intrinsic to Ukrainian national identity and that the initial surge of democracy support among Ukrainians in the face of Russia’s invasion has been more than a short-term rallying-round-the-flag. In combination, these factors explain the Ukrainians’ sustained, spirited resilience in the face Russia’s mass savage invasion over more than a two-year period. Moreover, support for democratic ideals doesn’t mean Ukrainians write a blank check of trust to their government. Longitudinal analysis indicates that as the war progressed, and hardship persisted respondents held their democratic institutions accountable. At the same time, the results of our study indicate that sustaining this resilience would require not only battlefield successes, but also accountable governance, countering Russia’s media impacts, and sustaining family incomes. Our findings contribute to the literature on war and democracy by showing the importance of considering both the external context (war duration and impacts and the aggressor state type) and the mobilization of national identity in the face of aggression.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2309901
- PAR ID:
- 10531002
- Publisher / Repository:
- Ukraine National Academy of Sciences
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Sociology: Theory, Methods, Marketing
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 1563-3713
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 40 to 55
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- Ukraine public opinion democracy war national identity
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2024.02.040
