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1. Multi-Cause Effect Estimation with Disentangled Confounder Representation

   https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2021/384  

   Ma, Jing; Guo, Ruocheng; Zhang, Aidong; Li, Jundong (August 2021, Proceedings of the Thirtieth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence)

   null (Ed.)

   One fundamental problem in causality learning is to estimate the causal effects of one or multiple treatments (e.g., medicines in the prescription) on an important outcome (e.g., cure of a disease). One major challenge of causal effect estimation is the existence of unobserved confounders -- the unobserved variables that affect both the treatments and the outcome. Recent studies have shown that by modeling how instances are assigned with different treatments together, the patterns of unobserved confounders can be captured through their learned latent representations. However, the interpretability of the representations in these works is limited. In this paper, we focus on the multi-cause effect estimation problem from a new perspective by learning disentangled representations of confounders. The disentangled representations not only facilitate the treatment effect estimation but also strengthen the understanding of causality learning process. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets show the superiority of our proposed framework from different aspects. 

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2. Identifiability of causal effects with multiple causes and a binary outcome

   https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asab016  

   Kong, Dehan; Yang, Shu; Wang, Linbo (March 2021, Biometrika)

   Summary Unobserved confounding presents a major threat to causal inference in observational studies. Recently, several authors have suggested that this problem could be overcome in a shared confounding setting where multiple treatments are independent given a common latent confounder. It has been shown that under a linear Gaussian model for the treatments, the causal effect is not identifiable without parametric assumptions on the outcome model. In this note, we show that the causal effect is indeed identifiable if we assume a general binary choice model for the outcome with a non-probit link. Our identification approach is based on the incongruence between Gaussianity of the treatments and latent confounder and non-Gaussianity of a latent outcome variable. We further develop a two-step likelihood-based estimation procedure. 

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3. Propensity Score Weighting for Causal Inference with Clustered Data

   https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2017-0027  

   Yang, Shu (September 2018, Journal of Causal Inference)

   Abstract Propensity score weighting is a tool for causal inference to adjust for measured confounders in observational studies. In practice, data often present complex structures, such as clustering, which make propensity score modeling and estimation challenging. In addition, for clustered data, there may be unmeasured cluster-level covariates that are related to both the treatment assignment and outcome. When such unmeasured cluster-specific confounders exist and are omitted in the propensity score model, the subsequent propensity score adjustment may be biased. In this article, we propose a calibration technique for propensity score estimation under the latent ignorable treatment assignment mechanism, i. e., the treatment-outcome relationship is unconfounded given the observed covariates and the latent cluster-specific confounders. We impose novel balance constraints which imply exact balance of the observed confounders and the unobserved cluster-level confounders between the treatment groups. We show that the proposed calibrated propensity score weighting estimator is doubly robust in that it is consistent for the average treatment effect if either the propensity score model is correctly specified or the outcome follows a linear mixed effects model. Moreover, the proposed weighting method can be combined with sampling weights for an integrated solution to handle confounding and sampling designs for causal inference with clustered survey data. In simulation studies, we show that the proposed estimator is superior to other competitors. We estimate the effect of School Body Mass Index Screening on prevalence of overweight and obesity for elementary schools in Pennsylvania. 

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4. Sequential Recommendation with User Memory Networks

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3159652.3159668  

   Chen, Xu; Xu, Hongteng; Zhang, Yongfeng; Tang, Jiaxi; Cao, Yixin; Qin, Zheng; Zha, Hongyuan (January 2018, Web Search and Data Mining)

   User preferences are usually dynamic in real-world recommender systems, and a user’s historical behavior records may not be equally important when predicting his/her future interests. Existing recommendation algorithms – including both shallow and deep approaches – usually embed a user’s historical records into a single latent vector/representation, which may have lost the per item- or feature-level correlations between a user’s historical records and future interests. In this paper, we aim to express, store, and manipulate users’ historical records in a more explicit, dynamic, and effective manner. To do so, we introduce the memory mechanism to recommender systems. Specifically, we design a memory-augmented neural network (MANN) integrated with the insights of collaborative filtering for recommendation. By leveraging the external memory matrix in MANN, we store and update users’ historical records explicitly, which enhances the expressiveness of the model. We further adapt our framework to both item- and feature-level versions, and design the corresponding memory reading/writing operations according to the nature of personalized recommendation scenarios. Compared with state-of-the-art methods that consider users’ sequential behavior for recommendation, e.g., sequential recommenders with recurrent neural networks (RNN) or Markov chains, our method achieves significantly and consistently better performance on four real-world datasets. Moreover, experimental analyses show that our method is able to extract the intuitive patterns of how users’ future actions are affected by previous behaviors. 

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5. Interval Estimation of Individual-Level Causal Effects Under Unobserved Confounding

   Kallus, Nathan; Mao, Xiaojie; Zhou, Angela (January 2019, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research)

   We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data with unobserved confounders. The CATE function maps baseline covariates to individual causal effect predictions and is key for personalized assessments. Recent work has focused on how to learn CATE under unconfoundedness, i.e., when there are no unobserved confounders. Since CATE may not be identified when unconfoundedness is violated, we develop a functional interval estimator that predicts bounds on the individual causal effects under realistic violations of unconfoundedness. Our estimator takes the form of a weighted kernel estimator with weights that vary adversarially. We prove that our estimator is sharp in that it converges exactly to the tightest bounds possible on CATE when there may be unobserved confounders. Further, we study personalized decision rules derived from our estimator and prove that they achieve optimal minimax regret asymptotically. We assess our approach in a simulation study as well as demonstrate its application in the case of hormone replacement therapy by comparing conclusions from a real observational study and clinical trial. 

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