Soil carbon (C) in permafrost peatlands is vulnerable to decomposition with thaw under a warming climate. The amount and form of C loss likely depends on the site hydrology following permafrost thaw, but antecedent conditions during peat accumulation are also likely important. We test the role of differing hydrologic conditions on rates of peat accumulation, permafrost formation, and response to warming at an Arctic tundra fen using a process-based model of peatland dynamics in wet and dry landscape settings that persist from peat initiation in the mid-Holocene through future simulations to 2100 CE and 2300 CE. Climate conditions for both the wet and dry landscape settings are driven by the same downscaled TraCE-21ka transient paleoclimate simulations and CCSM4 RCP8.5 climate drivers. The landscape setting controlled the rates of peat accumulation, permafrost formation and the response to climatic warming and permafrost thaw. The dry landscape scenario had high rates of initial peat accumulation (11.7 ± 3.4 mm decade −1 ) and rapid permafrost aggradation but similar total C stocks as the wet landscape scenario. The wet landscape scenario was more resilient to 21st century warming temperatures than the dry landscape scenario and showed 60% smaller C losses and 70% more new net peat C additions by 2100 CE. Differences in the modeled responses indicate the largest effect is related to the landscape setting and basin hydrology due to permafrost controls on decomposition, suggesting an important sensitivity to changing runoff patterns. These subtle hydrological effects will be difficult to capture at circumpolar scales but are important for the carbon balance of permafrost peatlands under future climate warming.
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Past permafrost dynamics can inform future permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks
Climate warming threatens to destabilize vast northern permafrost areas, potentially releasing large quantities of organic carbon that could further disrupt the climate. Here we synthesize paleorecords of past permafrost-carbon dynamics to contextualize future permafrost stability and carbon feedbacks. We identify key landscape differences between the last deglaciation and today that influence the response of permafrost to atmospheric warming, as well as landscape-level differences that limit subsequent carbon uptake. We show that the current magnitude of thaw has not yet exceeded that of previous deglaciations, but that permafrost carbon release has the potential to exert a strong feedback on future Arctic climate as temperatures exceed those of the Pleistocene. Better constraints on the extent of subsea permafrost and its carbon pool, and on carbon dynamics from a range of permafrost thaw processes, including blowout craters and megaslumps, are needed to help quantify the future permafrost-carbon-climate feedbacks.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1903623
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10434876
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Communications Earth & Environment
- Volume:
- 4
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2662-4435
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Climate warming in high‐latitude regions is thawing carbon‐rich permafrost soils, which can release carbon to the atmosphere and enhance climate warming. Using a coupled model of long‐term peatland dynamics (Holocene Peat Model, HPM‐Arctic), we quantify the potential loss of carbon with future climate warming for six sites with differing climates and permafrost histories in Northwestern Canada. We compared the net carbon balance at 2100 CE resulting from new productivity and the decomposition of active layer and newly thawed permafrost peats under RCP8.5 as a high‐end constraint. Modeled net carbon losses ranged from −3.0 kg C m−2(net loss) to +0.1 kg C m−2(net gain) between 2015 and 2100. Losses of newly thawed permafrost peat comprised 0.2%–25% (median: 1.6%) of “old” C loss, which were related to the residence time of peat in the active layer before being incorporated into the permafrost, peat temperature, and presence of permafrost. The largest C loss was from the permafrost‐free site, not from permafrost sites. C losses were greatest from depths of 0.2–1.0 m. New C added to the profile through net primary productivity between 2015 and 2100 offset ∼40% to >100% of old C losses across the sites. Differences between modeled active layer deepening and flooding following permafrost thaw resulted in very small differences in net C loss by 2100, illustrating the important role of present‐day conditions and permafrost aggradation history in controlling net C loss.
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Abstract Northern circumpolar permafrost thaw affects global carbon cycling, as large amounts of stored soil carbon becomes accessible to microbial breakdown under a warming climate. The magnitude of carbon release is linked to the extent of permafrost thaw, which is locally variable and controlled by soil thermodynamics. Soil thermodynamic properties, such as thermal diffusivity, govern the reactivity of the soil‐atmosphere thermal gradient, and are controlled by soil composition and drainage. In order to project permafrost thaw for an Alaskan tundra experimental site, we used seven years of site data to calibrate a soil thermodynamic model using a data assimilation technique. The model reproduced seasonal and interannual temperature dynamics for shallow (5–40 cm) and deep soil layers (2–4 m), and simulations of seasonal thaw depth closely matched observed data. The model was then used to project permafrost thaw at the site to the year 2100 using climate forcing data for three future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Minimal permafrost thawing occurred until mean annual air temperatures rose above the freezing point, after which we measured over a 1 m increase in thaw depth for every 1
° C rise in mean annual air temperature. Under no projected warming scenario was permafrost remaining in the upper 3 m of soil by 2100. We demonstrated an effective data assimilation method that optimizes parameterization of a soil thermodynamic model. The sensitivity of local permafrost to climate warming illustrates the vulnerability of sub‐Arctic tundra ecosystems to significant and rapid soil thawing. -
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Abstract Ongoing rapid arctic warming leads to extensive permafrost thaw, which in turn increases the hydrologic connectivity of the landscape by opening up subsurface flow paths. Suspended particulate organic matter (POM) has proven useful to trace permafrost thaw signals in arctic rivers, which may experience higher organic matter loads in the future due to expansion and increasing intensity of thaw processes such as thermokarst and river bank erosion. Here we focus on the Kolyma River watershed in Northeast Siberia, the world's largest watershed entirely underlain by continuous permafrost. To evaluate and characterize the present‐day fluvial release of POM from permafrost thaw, we collected water samples every 4–7 days during the 4‐month open water season in 2013 and 2015 from the lower Kolyma River mainstem and from a small nearby headwater stream (Y3) draining an area completely underlain by Yedoma permafrost (Pleistocene ice‐ and organic‐rich deposits). Concentrations of particulate organic carbon generally followed the hydrograph with the highest concentrations during the spring flood in late May/early June. For the Kolyma River, concentrations of dissolved organic carbon showed a similar behavior, in contrast to the headwater stream, where dissolved organic carbon values were generally higher and particulate organic carbon concentrations lower than for Kolyma. Carbon isotope analysis (δ13C, Δ14C) suggested Kolyma‐POM to stem from both contemporary and older permafrost sources, while Y3‐POM was more strongly influenced by in‐stream production and recent vegetation. Lipid biomarker concentrations (high‐molecular‐weight
n ‐alkanoic acids andn ‐alkanes) did not display clear seasonal patterns, yet implied Y3‐POM to be more degraded than Kolyma‐POM. -
Investigating Thaw and Plant Productivity Constraints on Old Soil Carbon Respiration From Permafrostmore » « less
Abstract Isotopic radiocarbon (Δ14C) signatures of ecosystem respiration (Reco) can identify old soil carbon (C) loss and serve as an early indicator of permafrost destabilization in a warming climate. Warming also stimulates plant productivity causing plant respiration to dominate Reco Δ14C signatures and potentially obscuring old soil C loss. Here, we investigate how a wide spatio‐temporal gradient of permafrost thaw and plant productivity affects Reco Δ14C patterns and isotopic partitioning. Spatial gradients came from a warming experiment with doubling thaw depth and variable biomass, and a vegetation removal manipulation to eliminate plant contributions. We sampled in August and September to capture transitions from high to low plant productivity, decreased surface soil temperature, and relatively small seasonal thaw extensions. We found that surface processes dominate spatial variation in old soil C loss and a process‐based partitioning approach was crucial for constraining old soil C loss. Resampling the same plots in different times of the year revealed that old soil C losses tripled with cooling surface temperature, and the largest old soil C losses were detected when the organic‐to‐mineral soil horizons thawed (∼50–60 cm). We suggest that the measured increase in old soil respiration over the season and when the organic‐to‐mineral horizon thawed, may be explained by mobilization of nitrogen that stimulates microbial decomposition at depth. Our results suggest that soil C in the organic to mineral horizon may be an important source of soil C loss as the entire Arctic region warms and could lead to nonlinearities in projected permafrost climate feedbacks.
