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Co-infections of hosts by multiple pathogen species are ubiquitous, but predicting their impact on disease remains challenging. Interactions between co-infecting pathogens within hosts can alter pathogen transmission, with the impact on transmission typically dependent on the relative arrival order of pathogens within hosts (within-host priority effects). However, it is unclear how these within-host priority effects influence multi-pathogen epidemics, particularly when the arrival order of pathogens at the host-population scale varies. Here, we combined models and experiments with zooplankton and their naturally co-occurring fungal and bacterial pathogens to examine how within-host priority effects influence multi-pathogen epidemics. Epidemiological models parametrized with within-host priority effects measured at the single-host scale predicted that advancing the start date of bacterial epidemics relative to fungal epidemics would decrease the mean bacterial prevalence in a multi-pathogen setting, while models without within-host priority effects predicted the opposite effect. We tested these predictions with experimental multi-pathogen epidemics. Empirical dynamics matched predictions from the model including within-host priority effects, providing evidence that within-host priority effects influenced epidemic dynamics. Overall, within-host priority effects may be a key element of predicting multi-pathogen epidemic dynamics in the future, particularly as shifting disease phenology alters the order of infection within hosts.
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Feeding the fever: Complex host‐pathogen dynamics along continuous resource gradients
Abstract Food has long been known to perform dual functions of nutrition and medicine, but mounting evidence suggests that complex host‐pathogen dynamics can emerge along continuous resource gradients. Empirical examples of nonmonotonic responses of infection with increasing host resources (e.g., low prevalence at low and high resource supply but high prevalence at intermediate resources) have been documented across the tree of life, but these dynamics, when observed, often are interpreted as nonintuitive, idiosyncratic features of pathogen and host biology. Here, by developing generalized versions of existing models of resource dependence for within‐ and among‐host infection dynamics, we provide a synthetic view of nonmonotonic infection dynamics. We demonstrate that where resources jointly impact two (or more) processes (e.g., growth, defense, transmission, mortality, predation), nonmonotonic infection dynamics, including alternative states, can emerge across a continuous resource supply gradient. We review the few empirical examples that concurrently measured resource effects on multiple rates and pair this with a wide range of examples in which resource dependence of multiple rates could generate nonmonotonic infection outcomes under realistic conditions. This review and generalized framework highlight the likely generality of such resource effects in natural systems and point to opportunities ripe for future empirical and theoretical work.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2129332
- PAR ID:
- 10435151
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecology and Evolution
- Volume:
- 13
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 2045-7758
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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