The increasing uncertainties caused by the high-penetration of stochastic renewable generation resources poses a significant threat to the power system voltage stability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic deep kernel learning enabled surrogate model to extract the hidden relationship between uncertain sources, i.e., wind power and loads, and load margin for probabilistic load margin assessment (PLMA). Unlike other deep learning approaches, a kernel SHAP provides the sensitivity analysis as well as interpretability of the inputs to outputs influences. This allows identifying the critical factors that affect load margin so that corrective control can be initiated for stability enhancement. Numerical results carried out on the IEEE 118-bus power system demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed data-driven PLMA scheme.
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Transferable Deep Kernel Emulator for Probabilistic Load Margin Assessment With Topology Changes, Uncertain Renewable Generations and Loads
The increasing uncertainties caused by the high-penetration of stochastic renewable generation resources and flexible loads pose challenges to the power system voltage stability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic transferable deep kernel emulator (DKE) to extract the hidden relationship between uncertain sources, i.e., wind generations and loads, and load margin for probabilistic load margin assessment (PLMA). This emulator extends the Gaussian process kernel to the deep neural network (DNN) structure and thus gains the advantages of DNN in dealing with high-dimension uncertain inputs and the uncertainty quantification capability of the Gaussian process. A transfer learning framework is also developed to reduce the invariant representation space distance between the old topology and new one. It allows the DKE to be quickly fine tuned with only a few samples under the new topology. Numerical results carried out on the modified IEEE 39-bus and 118-bus power systems demonstrate the strong robustness of the proposed transferable DKE to uncertain wind and load power as well as topology changes while maintaining high accuracy.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1917308
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10437844
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
- ISSN:
- 0885-8950
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 15
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2022.3231240
